The Politics of Democracy

1. The Politics of Democracy Public Opinion & Interest Groups Political Parties Campaigns & Elections The Media & Cyberspace Voting & Voting Behavior

3. Which of the following school days would you vote to support? • School days that begin later, but the school day is extended • Begin at the same time, but cut out studyhalls and end a period earlier • Begin later, cut out studyhalls and electives, end the day sooner • Keep the school day the same

5. Measuring Public Opinion • Public Opinion Polls: a survey on the public’s opinion on a particular topic • How can public opinion polls be valuable? • Since a poll can’t include the entire population, how can the poll takers gain valuable feedback?

6. Measuring Public Opinion Samples: • Groups of people who are representative of the population being studied Straw Poll: • A survey of opinions taken to estimate the strength of opposing candidates or the popularity of proposed law What are some other ways that polls are conducted? Can you think of any problems with polls?

7. Measuring Public Opinion • There is no way to guarantee opinions expressed in a straw poll is representative of the population being studied since it represents only a small percentage of the population

8. Measuring Public Opinion • A 1936 straw poll by a magazine called Literary Digest sent out millions of postcard ballots for the presidential election between Alfred Landon and Franklin D. Roosevelt • It predicted Landon would easily defeat incumbent Roosevelt • Roosevelt wins in a landslide How could the poll have been so wrong?

9. Measuring Public Opinion • Biased Sample: A polling sample that does not accurately represent the population • The people that were sent the postcards were not representative o the group polls • MUCH less prosperous • Some polls did predict the landslide victory of Roosevelt • The Gallup Poll- Which is still a leader in polls today!

10. Measuring Public Opinion • In order for 2,000 polls to determine the outcome of elections, etc., a sample must… • Consist of a group of people who are typical of that general population • Random Sampling: every person in the population being polled has an equal chance of being chosen • Polls can be very accurate if conducted correctly and politicians and the news media count on them!

11. Measuring Public Opinion • Can you think of any positive or negative reactions to polls?

12. Measuring Public Opinion • What problems can exist with polls? • Wording of Questions: • Are you supportive of a women’s right to choose? • Are you supportive of using abortion as a method of birth control? • Should a woman be denied their right to choose? • Are you pro- abortion? • “yes” or “no” answers to complex questions • Do you support aid to foreign nations? • Can create public opinion rather than measure it

13. Measuring Public Opinion • Sampling Error: • The difference between what the sample results show and what the true result would be if everybody had been polled • Answers given may not be reliable • No information on the issue • Rapid shifts in opinion

14. Factors that Affect Public Opinion • Political Socialization: The process by which individuals develop political beliefs and form opinions about political issues. (i.e. family, educational system)

15. Factors that Affect Public Opinion • Family • Educational: schooling and level of education • Mass Media: “television war” Vietnam • Opinion Leaders: public officials, religious leaders, teachers, celebrities (MLK) • Peer Groups: friends, classmates, co-workers • Economic Status & Occupation: • Poor support government assistance programs • Non-profit depending on government funds • Factory workers favoring national health care • Age: • Young more liberal, progressive on issues like race and gender • Older more conservative, maintain values