Citi CMB Advanced Risk Issues Seeing Around Corners “Why are we here?” Tarrytown, NY October 1 – 4, 2007

1. Citi CMBAdvanced Risk IssuesSeeing Around Corners“Why are we here?”Tarrytown, NYOctober 1 – 4, 2007

2. Citi CIBAdvanced Risk Issues Revenue Growthand Risk Managementin a Complex Global Bank

3. Basel II – Federal Reserve Board Susan Schmidt Bies 2006 • The largest institutions have moved away from the traditional banking strategy of holding assets on the balance sheet to strategies that emphasize redistribution of assets and actively managing risks. • These dramatic changes to the risk profiles of many banking organizations have only accelerated with the continued evolution of many, often complex, financial tools, such as securtitizations and credit derivatives.

4. The changes in the financial system since 1998 confront us with a mix of benefits and challenges. • The larger size and scope of the core institutions, the greater opportunities for… • risk transfer and hedging provided by innovation in derivatives, • improvements in risk management, • The larger role played by a much expanded number and more diverse mix of private fund managers seem likely to have improved the stability and resilience of the financial system across a broader range of circumstances

5. The Economist Survey of International Banking – May, 2006 • Banks the world over are scrambling to become larger… • But at some point diseconomies of scale will also start creeping in, with management finding it harder to summarize everything that is going on in the bank • This includes the neglect of concealed risks and the failure of internal controls • This problem afflicted Citigroup in 2002 – 2005 when it was rocked by a string of compliance problems • Risk management, the rock on which any contemporary bank rests, scarcely existed as a profession outside the insurance industry until the 1970’s

7. The alchemists of finance – May, 2007 Global investment banks are taking ever more risk, and are devising ever more sophisticated ways of spreading it

8. International banking – May 2007 Risk and reward Worried about credit risk? You should fret more about pension funds than banks

9. The alchemists of finance INTERNATIONAL BANKING A discussion with Henry Tricks, Finance Editor of The Economist May 17, 2007 “Investment banking is highly competitive. Everyone is following each other down the same path; there's a herding instinct. With your competitors, you take bigger and bigger risks. The trick is not to be left holding the hand-grenade at the end, and we're not sure when the end will come.”

10. Survey of International Banking, May 2007“The alchemists of finance” • Thanks to technological and financial wizardry, loans are now made with little contact between borrower and lender, and are shuffled around the financial system like so many cards at a poker table. • international investment banks have become vast financial-liquidity factories, turning loans into tradable securities, selling them on and earning record profits as a reward • Thanks to the relentless deal-making between financial institutions, if (or rather when) liquidity dries up, risks that the banks think they have outsourced to hedge funds, insurance companies and pension funds might cascade back onto their books.

11. Fed, Other Regulators Turn Attention to Risk in Banks’ LBO Lending May 18,2007  Page C1 • The leading arrangers of leveraged loans have exposure that is far smaller than the total because they typically "syndicate" the loans. What they keep, they often hedge with credit-default swaps. • But banks are still exposed to default in the period before they have syndicated or hedged a loan. Even a short-term bridge loan exposes the lender to the risk that the borrower won't be able to find longer-term financing, or will default. • One worry for regulators is that an abrupt deterioration in the markets could suddenly leave many banks withlong-term exposure they hadn't counted on.

12. Federal Reserve Board of GovernorsCredit Risk Supervision – Sabeth SiddiqueMay, 2007 • It is “unsafe and unsound” to be in credit risk trading without an understanding of the risks being traded • Banks should not be trading credit risk on “technical factors” • There is a large, new risk – “Pipeline” Risk. The risk that a market event will dry up liquidity in the middle of a syndication or creation of credit default protection

13. Banks in trouble The game is up Aug 16th 2007

14. Securitisation: life after death

15. A New World Disorder for Debt Traders System of Risk DispersalProves to Be a Bit Erratic WSJ August 10, 2007; Page C1 • Welcome to the new world of finance. • Markets have taken on an increasingly important role since the financial crises of the 1980s and '90s. • When banks make loans, they are now often bundled into securities that are sold in pieces to investors around the world, changing hands many times. It spreads risk, which policy makers believe keeps the overall financial system sound and stable. • But the downsides to this system could be serious. A financial architecture that dispersed risk also helped to create it. And when troubles emerge -- as they have in the U.S. housing market -- they can show up just about any place in the world and in ways nobody predicted.

16. For Banks, a $300 Billion Hangover By JACQUELINE DOHERTY August 27, 2007 IN EVERY BUST THAT FOLLOWS A BOOM, embarrassing details emerge showing just how eager the players were to participate in the insanity. In the current bust, these revealing nuggets are buried in the lending commitments of some of the largest pending LBOs. In their bid to win LBO business amid the boom, lenders surrendered many of their exit options to private-equity shops.

17. Heading for the rocks Will financial turmoil sink the world economy? Has dispersing risk really made the world safer? • Events of the past month have shown that while risk can be dis-intermediated by banks, it cannot be eliminated. • Arguably, it migrates to elements of the financial system, such as hedge funds, insurers and pension funds, which are less qualified to manage it. • And banks, which had been thought to have become safer as a result of the disintermediation of risk, now face increased risk exposure. • Some are being forced to assume responsibility for the liabilities of off-balance-sheet vehicles which cannot be refinanced. Others have been left holding large loans for leveraged buy-outs which they underwrote but cannot syndicate in current market conditions.

18. August 12, 2007 Fair Game A Week When Risk Came Home to Roost By GRETCHEN MORGENSON FOR something that everybody assured us was “contained,” the sub prime mortgage mess certainly has spread. As a result, “risk models are miscalibrated for the current market environment,” The only trouble is, financial markets do not always trade in a way that is typical or predictable. And when they deviate from the norm, all the wonderful and smart trades stop behaving according to plan. ANALYSTS CALL IT MODEL MISBEHAVIOR

19. Moody’s 2005 Securities Industry Outlook • “For all global trading and market-making firms, highly-skilled risk management - broadly defined - is an absolute necessity for the business model. • “A robust corporate culture remains critical for balancing short-term competitive pressures and the long-term interests of a franchise.

20. Moody’s 2005 Securities Industry Outlook • A firm needs to know when to say no. One manager described his firm's business philosophy in this way, "It is not about this trade -it is about the next trade". • “Firms that fail to achieve this balance expose themselves to open-ended risks and jeopardize their credit ratings.

21. World comes to an end. Goldman Sachs net income surges September 20 2007 • It verges on the unseemly to achieve a nearly 20 per cent increase in fixed-income trading from the previous quarter – after stripping out a one-off gain on a disposal. • That means Goldman was able to increase fixed-income revenues even after taking its lumps on leveraged loan write-downs – a painful $1.5bn, after its fee cushion. • There were a couple of other nuggets that underscore how good Goldman’s risk management appears to be. For instance, leveraged loan debt that it sold in the market recently fetched prices in line with or slightly above the negative marks Goldman had pencilled in. That may be so for others as well, but Goldman has said it publicly.

24. “Why are we here?”

25. Moody’s 2005 Securities Industry Outlook • A firm needs to know when to say no. One manager described his firm's business philosophy in this way, "It is not about this trade -it is about the next trade". • “Firms that fail to achieve this balance expose themselves to open-ended risks and jeopardize their credit ratings.

28. Whose fault is it?

30. BMO warns on large natural gas losses May 17 2007 • BMO Financial Group, parent of the Bank of Montreal, has sharply lifted its estimate of losses from natural gas trading, dismissed two commodity traders, and is investigating possible fraud in the trading and valuation of the portfolio. • The losses are now estimated at C$680m (US$619m) before tax, or C$327m after tax. Last month’s estimate was between C$350m-C$450m. • Standard & Poor’s placed the bank’s ratings on review, saying the loss “is disproportionate to its total trading revenues, and does not reflect BMO's stated strategy of being a low-risk bank”.

31. JP Morgan ‘misled’ Athens over bondMay 20 2007 • The bond was arranged by JP Morgan for the Greek government to fund military expenditure. After its issue, it was sold to four pension funds at an unfavorable price, via a chain of pre-planned deals • Seven weeks ago, JP Morgan wrote to the Greek government saying that it had sold the entire bond issue to North believing the fund would be a “buy and hold” investor. It denied any knowledge of the planned chain of transactions. • Its allegations threaten to fuel a growing political scandal in Greece about structured bonds arranged by investment banks. This controversy has already triggered mass strikes in Greece, forced the removal of a cabinet minister and prompted a government investigation into the issue.

32. Russia reopens $22 billion lawsuit against Bank of NY • The claim was for unpaid taxes on money taken out of Russia via an illegal scheme facilitated by the Bank of New York, more than 10 years ago • At the time of the scandal, there were rumors that Russian officials and businessmen had benefited from the scheme. • Two Russian emigrants - one of whom was a Bank of New York vice-president - admitted laundering at least $7bn through the bank, using accounts at the bank to channel funds from Moscow to parties all around the world. Theywere sentenced to five years probation last year.

33. Market Cap (intraday):245.18B

34. Wall Street Journal 9 Feb, 2004Size, Smiles and ScandalsA Question of CredibilityEnron. Worldcom. Adelphia. HealthSouth. Parmalat. • The list of companies tarnished by scandal over the past couple of years contains many of the same names that banks were tripping over one another to do business with not long ago. • Money-center banks lost millions of dollars on loans to these companies. Settling multiple regulatory inquiries cost banks billions. • So these days, there’s a new phrase on the tongues of bank executives: reputational risk.

35. May 10, 2004Citigroup to Pay $2.65 Billion in Deal With WorldCom Investors • Citigroup, said today that it would set aside $4.95 billion in the second quarter to cover legal costs, including a pretax payment of $2.95 billion to settle claims with investors in Worldcom Inc. • The payment will go to investors who bought WorldCom bonds at public offerings made in 2000 and 2001, as well as securities purchased in the open market between April 29, 1999, and June 25, 2002. • The balance of the second-quarter reserve will go toward a potential settlement of class-action lawsuits filed by investors in the Enron Corporation… • To provide itself additional cushioning to deal with suits still pending, Citigroup said that after settling the WorldCom matter, it would have a "litigation reserve" of $6.7 billion on a pretax basis.

36. Citigroup's Japan MisstepMay Bruise Bank's Global ImageWSJ September 22, 2004 • The forced closure of Citigroup Inc.'s private-banking business in Japan likely will have little direct impact on its bottom line, but the bank's reputation is taking yet another hit. • The banking colossus has lost $8 billion, or 3%, of its market value since Japan's Financial Services Agency last week ordered subsidiary Citibank N.A. to shutter the business • So far this week, a prominent Wall Street analyst has downgraded the stock and credit-rating company Moody's Investors Service Inc. has warned that Citigroup must keepsqueaky clean in order to receive ratings upgrades in the future.

40. Business Week 4 October, 2004"CLAWS AND FANGS" • "The constraint on Citi's growth is not its market size, nor its capital," says Bernstein's Mason. "It may well be that Citi can't achieve its growth ambitions because it cannot safeguard itself properly from regulatory and reputation risk." • "Citi has become so large that it is simply not possible to mandate behavior. The challenge now is to create a culture, to inculcate a shared set of values that guide employee behavior."

41. July, 2003

43. Moody’s US Banking CommentaryJanuary, 2006 • Before discussing Citigroup's quarter we would like to remind you that we recently assigned a positive rating outlook to Citibank's Aa1/A- ratings. • Finally, to achieve an upgrade to Aaa at the banks, management's efforts to instill more robust controls and a more effective culture must succeed. • Management will need to maintain its focus on strengthening business practices, despite shareholder pressures for growth, since we see cultural change as a multi-year process. • We would interpret a major new reputation or regulatory problem as a failure of management's control initiatives. This could preclude an upgrade of the banks.

45. New York, September 26, 2006 -- Moody's Investors Service upgraded the ratings of Citibank N.A. to Aaa for long-term deposits and to A for financial strength Citigroup has a well-recognized brand, and management has built leading global franchises in credit cards, consumer finance, international consumer banking, wealth management and wholesale banking. These businesses have produced strong and consistent earnings even during difficult economic or market conditions.

48. NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 14, 2007--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it raised its counterparty credit rating on Citigroup Inc. (Citi) to 'AA/A-1+' from 'AA-/A-1+'. • The long-term counterparty credit rating on Citibank N.A. was raised to 'AA+'.. • Strong earnings generation from an extraordinarily diverse set of businesses allows Citi to cover some of the high risks that it incurs. • Citi has also achieved a substantial change in its control environment in the aftermath of a wave of heavy litigation expenses and criticism of its business practices from regulators around the world. The period of adjustment is over, and Citi has been investing heavily to stimulate organic growth.

49. January 29, 2007 -- Shopaholic Citigroup WSJ • London-based Prudential announced that it would sell its troubled Egg online banking business to Citigroup for roughly $1.13 billion • Citigroup has been on a shopping binge ever since the Federal Reserve let it out of the penalty box in April. • The central bank decided to bar Citigroup from making any deals back in March 2005 after a parade of regulatory tangles, including an uproar over a European bond gambit the company's traders lovingly christened "Dr. Evil" and Japan's decision to yank Citigroup's private-banking license.

50. Citigroup in Japan retail expansionFT.com, Jan 29 2007 • Citigroup on Monday said it would significantly expand its retail and corporate banking operations in Japan, just a few weeks after scaling back its consumer finance business. • The move follows a tumultuous time for Citigroup in Japan. • In 2004, the bank was ordered by the authorities to close its private banking business, and last year it was hit with a business improvement order for customer data processing errors.