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Health Care Forecasting Conference

Health Care Forecasting Conference. James Baumgardner Deputy Assistant Director Congressional Budget Office February 25, 2010. CBO Baseline. Not a forecast of the future. Assumes that current law remains unchanged. Consistent with CBO’s job of scoring proposals relative to current law.

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Health Care Forecasting Conference

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  1. Health Care Forecasting Conference James Baumgardner Deputy Assistant Director Congressional Budget Office February 25, 2010

  2. CBO Baseline • Not a forecast of the future. • Assumes that current law remains unchanged. • Consistent with CBO’s job of scoring proposals relative to current law. • Special treatment of discretionary spending.

  3. CBO Baseline Assumptions • Tax provisions expire as scheduled. • No modification of the Alternative Minimum Tax. • Discretionary spending grows with inflation. • No fix of Medicare physician payment.

  4. Budget Outlook Under Current Policies 2010-2020 (In billions of dollars)

  5. Budget Outlook Under Current Policies 2010-2020 (As a percentage of GDP)

  6. Annual Unemployment Rate, 1950 to 2020 Percent Source: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  7. Revenues and Outlays as a Share of GDP, 1970 to 2020 Percentage of GDP Source: Congressional Budget Office

  8. The Total Deficit or Surplus as a Share of GDP, 1970 to 2020 Percentage of GDP Source: Congressional Budget Office

  9. The Budgetary Effects of Policy Alternatives Not Included in CBO’s Baseline (January 2010) (Billions of Dollars) Note: Additional debt service included in alternatives. Source: Congressional Budget Office

  10. Medicare Baselines: Net Outlays, 2010-2020 (Billions of Dollars) Average Annual Increase: 7.0% Source: Congressional Budget Office

  11. Medicaid Baselines: Mandatory Outlays, 2010-2020 (Billions of Dollars) Average Annual Increase: 5.0% Source: Congressional Budget Office

  12. H.R. 3962: Affordable Health Care for America Act • Mandate on individuals to obtain insurance • Medicaid expansion • Subsidies for individual purchase through exchanges (includes DHHS public plan) • Penalty payments on non-offering employers • Reductions in the growth of Medicare payment rates • Income tax surcharge on high-income people

  13. H.R. 3962: Affordable Health Care for America Act (Billions of Dollars) Source: Congressional Budget Office

  14. H.R. 3962: Affordable Health Care for America Act (Billions of Dollars) Source: Congressional Budget Office

  15. H.R. 3590 – Senate Amendment 2786: Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act • Mandate on individuals to obtain insurance • Medicaid expansion • Subsidies for individual purchase through exchanges (OPM contracts with “multi-state” plans) • Reductions in the growth of Medicare payment rates (and establish Independent Payment Advisory Board) • Excise tax on high-premium health plans • Payroll tax increase on high-income people

  16. H.R. 3590 – Senate Amendment 2786: Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Billions of Dollars) Source: Congressional Budget Office Note: Based on CBO analysis of December 19, 2009.

  17. H.R. 3590 – Senate Amendment 2786: Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Billions of Dollars) Source: Congressional Budget Office Note: Based on CBO analysis of December 19, 2009.

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