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Integrating Case-Based, Analogy-Based, and Parameter-Based Estimation via Agile COCOMO II

Integrating Case-Based, Analogy-Based, and Parameter-Based Estimation via Agile COCOMO II. Anandi Hira, USC Graduate Student COCOMO Forum 2012 Wednesday, October 17, 2012. Outline. Motivation Nature of Agile COCOMO II Extensions to Case-Based Reasoning Example of Use: WellPoint

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Integrating Case-Based, Analogy-Based, and Parameter-Based Estimation via Agile COCOMO II

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  1. Integrating Case-Based, Analogy-Based, and Parameter-Based Estimation via Agile COCOMO II Anandi Hira, USC Graduate Student COCOMO Forum 2012 Wednesday, October 17, 2012

  2. Outline • Motivation • Nature of Agile COCOMO II • Extensions to Case-Based Reasoning • Example of Use: WellPoint • Further Potential Extensions

  3. Motivation • Many organizations prefer to use analogy methods • Yesterday’s weather: same as today’s 70% of the time • Use same size, productivity, cost, schedule as last project • Too many parameters to estimate in parametric models • However, next-day’s weather may not be the same • Or next-project’s cost driver settings • Want to adjust analogy estimate to reflect differences • This is what Agile COCOMO II does

  4. Nature of Agile COCOMO II • Offers choice of analogy baseline • Size Quantity: Equivalent KSLOC, Function Points, User Stories or Use Cases • Resources Needed: Dollars, Person-Months, Ideal Person-Weeks • Productivity: Dollars per Size Quantity, Size Quantity per Person-Month or Ideal Person-Week • Modifies analogy baseline to reflect new-project deltas

  5. Outline • Motivation • Nature of Agile COCOMO II • Extensions to Case-Based Reasoning • Example of Use: WellPoint • Further Potential Extensions

  6. Extensions to Case-Based Reasoning • Searches project metadata for project closest to project being estimated (e.g., WellPoint metadata) • Business Area (Health Solutions, Mandates) • Sponsoring Division (Finance, Human Resources) • Operational Capability (Care Mgmt., Claims Mgmt.) • Business Capability (Marketing, Enrollment) • Need for New Features (Data, Business Processes) • Primary Benefits (Higher Retention, Cost Avoidance) • Systems Impacted (eBusiness Portals, Call Centers) • States Impacted (California, New Hampshire) • Business Impact (Actuarial, Legal) • Estimated Size (<$1M, >$5M)

  7. WellPoint Systems Impacted

  8. Regression – Impacted Systems 1/3

  9. Regression – Impacted Systems 2/3 Average Prediction %Error = 231.61%

  10. Regression – Impacted Systems 3/3

  11. Regression – Requirements Impacting Systems 1/3

  12. Regression – Requirements Impacting Systems 2/3 Average Prediction %Error = 205.41%

  13. Regression – Requirements Impacting Systems 3/3

  14. Agile COCOMO II • Average Prediction %Error = 160.93% • 30.52% improvement from Systems Impacted Linear regression • 21.65% improvement from Requirements Impacting Systems Linear regression

  15. Agile COCOMO II

  16. Outline • Motivation • Nature of Agile COCOMO II • Extensions to Case-Based Reasoning • Example of Use: WellPoint • Further Potential Extensions

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