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Cost trends for Offshore Wind - and a look at the resources

Cost trends for Offshore Wind - and a look at the resources. David Milborrow dmilborrow@compuserve.com. Objectives. Quantify costs These are linked to wind speeds so what are the winds (m/s) ? and how much (sq km) ?

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Cost trends for Offshore Wind - and a look at the resources

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  1. Cost trends for Offshore Wind - and a look at the resources David Milborrow dmilborrow@compuserve.com

  2. Objectives • Quantify costs • These are linked to wind speeds • so what are the winds (m/s) ? • and how much (sq km) ? • Resource basis: detailed D.En/CEGB study gives indicative answers on resource • note that water depths, etc, unchanged since 1982! • A cautious look into the future

  3. Offshore wind: constraints • Sea usage • Shipping • Military activity • Dredging • Oil rigs • Fishing? • Cost drivers • Water depth • Distance offshore • Grid connection points

  4. How much sea?

  5. Offshore resource 1982 study England and Wales 19402 sq km Av wind 8.8 m/s ~1000 TWh Scotland 2343 sq km Av wind 9.2 m/s ~ 132 TWh “Probable” Solid – “probable” Open – “possible”

  6. Constraints

  7. Cost impacts • PLUS • Foundations • Marinisation • Wave dynamics • ConstructionTotal +30-50%O&M...........+0-50% • MINUS • Higher winds = increased output (Not UK, ES, GR)-30 to + 30% on price Overall: + 20-80% on onshore electricity price, but very site-specific

  8. UK price estimatesSource: DTI – “Future offshore” • 100 MW wind farm, costs in £MTurbines 51 Electrical 25Foundations 16 Other 8 • TOTAL 100 (£1000/kW) • Annual costs – capital 12* O & M, rent 3.95 • Annual yield: 310 GWh • Generation cost ~ £51/MWh *Assumes 10% cost of capital and 20 yr depreciation

  9. Prices are what you want them to be

  10. Resource and cost – England and Wales

  11. Transmission issues • “Best resources in wrong place” • but cannot expect always to use best resources • The location/resource balance: • cheaper to develop in south, even if winds ~0.5 m/s lower? • Best Scottish sites can only afford an extra ~£33/kW/yr TNUoS charges to stay cheaper than The Wash • 20 TWh S of Thames axis, 30 GW in Wash area • Plenty of thermal stations getting old!

  12. Offshore challenges: reduce costs by:- • Larger machine sizes • Foundation design • Larger wind farms, spreading costs of:- • cable connection to shore • Operation and maintenance • specialist equipment for • transporting the turbine • installing foundations • Go further offshore to higher winds?

  13. Exact variations are clearly location-dependent! Wind speed increases with distance offshore

  14. Costs down, energy upA possible scenario in 2012 Near-shore, ~ 60 MW 100 km offshore, ~550 MW

  15. Offshore – future costs (?)

  16. Offshore wind and competitorsResource, cost and risk

  17. Conclusions • Considerable scope for cost reductions, from:- • Larger wind farms • Further offshore • Exact rate of price reductions uncertain, but • Considerable resources, and – • Plenty of siting options

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