Status and Perspectives

1. Status and Perspectives of Astroparticle Physics in Europe ApPEC Roadmap, Phase I C. Spiering HEAPNET Meeting, Feb. 19, 2007

2. Frank Avignone Jose Bernabeu Leonid Bezrukov Pierre Binetruy Hans Bluemer Karsten Danzmann Franz v. Feilitzsch Enrique Fernandez Werner Hofmann John Iliopoulos Uli Katz Paolo Lipari Manel Martinez Antonio Masiero Benoit Mours Francesco Ronga Andre Rubbia Subir Sarkar Guenther Sigl Gerard Smadja Nigel Smith Christian Spiering (chair) Alan Watson Observer SC: Thomas Berghöfer • Steering Committee (Funding Agencies) • Peer Review Committee (Expert Group) Committees

3. History of roadmap process • June 2005: ApPEC SC charges PRC to write a roadmap • Questionnaires from all European APP experiments • 4 PRC meetings, numerous presentation to AP community (~ 2000 physicists), CERN strategy meetings, etc. • October 2006: circulation of full text • November 2006: open meeting in Valencia • January 2007: document submitted to SC

4. What is the Universe made of ? • - Dark matter: WIMPS direct and indirect, axions • Dark energy (not addressed in detail but closely related • to dark matter) • - Other particles beyond the standard model • - Cosmic antimatter now: Pamela, later: AMS > 2012: Two direct-search experiments with 10-10 pb sensitivity Price tag 60-100 M€

5. ZEPLIN, XENON, LUX (Xe) WARP, ArDM (Ar) Noble liquids Noble liquids XMASS, DEAP, CLEAN, DAMA/LXe DRIFT MIMAC TPC DAMA, ANAIS, KIMS crystals NaI, CsI EDELWEISS, CDMS bolometric Ge, Si CRESST bolometric CaWO4 Superheated liquids SIMPLE, PICASSO, COUPP Ionization Scintillation WIMP Heat > 20 expt‘s worldwide

6. Towards 2 large detectors Now: 10 kg scale 2009/11: 100 kg scale 2012/14: ton scale CRESST EURECA ton scale EURECA-100 Edelweiss LXe LXe Xe-100 Noble liquid ton scale LAr Ar-100 LAr … a possible convergence scenario

7. 10-4 results of LHC may modify this picture ! Stage 1: Field in Infancy Stage 2: Prepare the instruments Stage 3: Maturity. Rapid progress 10-6 Cross section (pb) 10-8 • Stage 4: • - Understand remaining • background.100 kg scale • Determine best method • for ton-scale detectors Stage 5: Build and operate ton-scale detectors 10-10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 LHC

8. What are the properties of neutrinos ? What is their role in cosmic evolution ? Spectrum endpoint and  , oscillations at reactors Soon: KATRIN Soon: Double CHOOZ m 13  2013: ~2 experiments with sensitivity to test inverted hierarchy Majorana vs. Dirac m

9. Start next 2-5 years: GERDA, Cuore, Super-NEMO, EXO-200, .. Following generation: GERDA+Majorana, Cuore-enr., EXO-1ton, COBRA, …. proof/disprove Klapdor test inverted scenario

10. Start next 2-5 years: GERDA, Cuore, Super-NEMO, EXO-200, .. Following generation: GERDA+Majorana, Cuore-enr., EXO-1ton, COBRA,. .. 20-50 meV range requires active mass of order one ton, good resolution, low BG. Need several isotopes. Price tag 50-200 M€. Gain experience within next 5 years.

11. now 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 DBD projects 0.1 eV scale operation bolometric 41 kg 130Te CUORICINO operation construction CUORE bolometric 740 kg 130Te operation tracking 8 kg 130Mo/82Se NEMO-3 operation Super-NEMO design study construction tracko-calo 100 kg 150Nd/82Se operation construction GERDA 15  35 kg 76Ge operation EXO (USA) 200 kg 130Xe design study construction (Projects running, under construction or with substantial R&D funding)

12. now 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 DBD projects 30 meV eV scale operation CUORICINO operation Converge towards 2 large European Projects ! Start construction 2012-2015 construction CUORE operation NEMO-3 operation design study construction operation construction GERDA operation EXO (USA) design study construction

13. What do neutrinos tell us about the interior of Sun and Earth, and about Supernova explosions ? Do protons have a finite lifetime ? Soon: Borexino •  2012 (civil engineering): • A very large multi-purpose facility • Options: • - Water Megatonne („MEMPHYS“) • - 100 kton Liquid Argon („GLACIER“) • - 50 kton scintillaton detector („LENA“) Price tag 400-800 M€ civil eng. ~2012/13

14. What is the origin of high energy cosmic rays ? What is the view of the sky at extreme energies ? Charged cosmic rays, neutrinos, TeV  Started: Auger  2009: Auger North  2015: EUSO ?  2011: KM3NeT under construction: IceCube H.E.S.S., Magic Very Large Array(s) („CTA“,  2010)

15. Cosmic Rays Balloons, PAMELA, AMS ARGO ? Kascade-Grande IceTop/IceCube Tunka-133 Telescope Array Pierre Auger Observatory

16. 1000000 Integrated Aperture Auger(S+N) EUSO 100000 Auger-N Auger-S Integrated Aperture (km^2*str*year) 10000 HiRes TA AGASA 1000 Fly'e Eye 100 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year Cosmic Rays at the Highest Energies

17. Auger North • Site: Colorado • Estimated cost 85 M€ (30 M€ from Europe) • Full sky coverage • Expect confirmation of physics case by Auger-South  first point sources ? • Start construction 2009 ?

18. HE CR Recommendations • We recommend that the present efforts, mainly focused in the Southern Pierre Auger Observatory with a 50% European contribution, be pursued with vigor. • We recommend that European groups play a significant role to establish the scientific case, and, after its consolidation, make a significant contribution to the design and construction of a Northern Auger Observatory. • The development of novel cost effective techniques with large aperture and particle identification would provide a useful redundancy to the present detectors. One such approach could be the radio detection of air showers as pursued by the LOPES (later LOFAR) and CODALEMA collaborations. We recommend support of R&D for these new technologies. • We appreciate the inclusion of ultra-high energy cosmic rays into the ESA Cosmic Vision 2015 programme, which provides a frame to study the scientific case, technical design and timeliness of space based detectors for ultra high energy radiation • The impact of measurements at accelerators, particularly at the LHC, should be evaluated in close cooperation with the particle physics community. • Efforts to bridge the gap between present direct and air shower detection methods (with large-aperture, long duration flight missions above the atmosphere and/or by ground detectors with sufficient particle identification placed at highest altitudes) should be encouraged.

19. HE Gamma 2 sources „from dawn to brightness“ ~ 40 sources CTA  ~ 103 sources

20. Beyond H.E.S.S. and MAGIC: CTA Telescope type Cost/Unit Units Large (30 m class) telescope 10 – 15 M€ ~ 3-4 Medium (15 m class) telescope 2.5 – 3.5 M€ ~ 15-20 Small (<10 m class) telescope 0.5-1.0 M€ ~ many Total ~ 100 M€ for general-purpose southern site ~ 50 M€ for “extragalactic” northern site Not to scale !

21. CTA sensitivity HAWC Wide angle 1 year IACTs 50 hrs

22. now 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 European IACT projects (also UK, IR participation in VERITAS) operation H.E.S.S. four 11-m telescopes operation construction H.E.S.S.- II + one 25-m telescope operation MAGIC-I one 17-m telescope operation construction MAGIC- II 2nd 17-m telescope Getting partners worldwide CTA operation design study construction + operation

23. HE Gamma Recommendations • To further explore the diversity of galactic and extragalactic gamma ray sources, construction of a next-generation facility for ground-based very-high-energy gamma ray astronomy (CTA – Cherenkov Telescope Array) is very strongly recommended. It builds on the demonstrated technical maturity and physics case of Cherenkov telescopes. CTA should both boost the sensitivity by another order of magnitude and enlarge the usable energy range. The technology to build arrays of highly sensitive telescopes is available or under advanced development, and deployment should start at the beginning of the next decade, overlapping with the operation of the GLAST satellite. • It is desirable to cover both hemispheres, with one site each. While low-threshold capability is of interest for both, a southern site of the facility should also provide improved detection rate at very high energies, given the flat spectra of galactic sources; this aspect may be less crucial for a northern site concentrating more on extragalactic physics. The instruments should be prepared by a common European consortium and share R&D, technologies and instrument designs to the extent possible. Cooperation with similar efforts underway in the US and in Japan should be explored. • The development of alternative detection techniques, for example techniques based on detection of shower particles at ground level, should be pursued, in particular concerning approaches for wide angle instruments which are complementary to the conventional Cherenkov instruments with their limited field of view.

24. Small IACTs (Romania, Croatia, Armenia, Russia, …) + “continuous” monitoring of strong sources + react to “low probability” alerts + community formation in new partner countries for CTA + strong E&O aspect - on a short term: defocusing CTA efforts

25. Neutrino Telescopes: AMANDA skymap • Need larger detectors: IceCube, KM3NeT

26. now 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 HE Neutrino Telescopes operation AMANDA operation IceCube oonstruction + operation operation NT200, NT200+ ? GVD operat construction + operation design study operation construction c + o ANTARES R&D KM3 NESTOR, NEMO KM3NeT operat construction + operation FP6 Design Study

27. now 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 HE Neutrino Telescopes operation AMANDA operation IceCube oonstruction + operation GVD operation NT200, NT200+ Recommendation: only ONE large detector on the Northern hemisphere. Expect confirmation of physics case from Icecube and H.E.S.S. operat construction + operation design study ANTARES operation construction c + o KM3NeT R&D KM3 NESTOR, NEMO operat construction + operation FP6 Design Study

28. Flux * E² (GeV/ cm² sec sr) 10-4 Rice, AGASA Rice GLUE Anita, Auger, NuMOON, + others Dumand Frejus Macro Baikal/Amanda IceCube/ KM3NeT 10-6 Waxman-Bahcall limit 1 EeV 10-8 Sensitivity to HE diffuse neutrino fluxes 10-1000 TeV 10-10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

29. HE neutrinos Recommendations • For a complete sky coverage, in particular of the central parts of the Galaxy with many promising sources, we strongly recommend to work towards a cubic kilometre detector in the Northern Hemisphere which will complement the IceCube detector. Resources for a Mediterranean detector should be pooled in a single, optimized large research infrastructure “KM3NeT”. Start of the construction of KM3NeT is going to be preceded by the successful operation of small scale or prototype detector(s) in the Mediterranean. It’s design should also incorporate the improved knowledge on galactic sources as provided by H.E.S.S. and MAGIC gamma ray observations, as well as initial results from IceCube. Still, the time lag between IceCube and KM3NeT detector should be kept as small as possible. • Based on AMANDA experience, the construction of IceCube with its early high discovery potential is planned to be completed in 2011. Since long, European partners have been playing a strong role in AMANDA/IceCube. They should be supported in order to ensure the appropriate scientific return, as well as a strong contribution to the considered extension of IceCube. • Several promising techniques to detect cosmic neutrinos of highest energy – like radio Cherenkov detection in ice, in the atmosphere or in the moon crust – will be tested with existing detectors; others, like acoustic detection, or radio detection in salt domes, are still in an R&D phase. In order to cover the full range of all possible energies of cosmic neutrinos, exploitation of these techniques is mandatory. The ongoing coordinated R&D work should be supported.

30. New methods • Radio detection of air showers: LOPES, LOFAR,... • Hybrid: water-C [+ fluorescence] + radio @ Auger & SP • Radio detection of showers at the moon: GLUE, NuMOON, .LORD, LIFE • Radio detection of neutrinos in ice/salt: RICE, AURA, SALSA • Acoustic detection of neutrinos in water and ice: SPATS @ SP. + many water approaches • Hybrid (optical + acoustic [+radio] ): South Pole “CONDOR” • Detection of cosmic ray & neutrino interactions from space (by fluorescence): EUSO • New photosensors

31. Can we detect gravitational waves ? What will they tell us about violent cosmic processes ? • Ground based Interferometers (here: VIRGO) 10 Hz – 10 kHz • Resonant antennas: ~ 1 kHz • Space based interferometer (LISA): < mHz - 1 Hz

32. Sensitivities

33. Events per year 0.01-3 3-1000 103-105

34. Gravitational Waves: Time chart

35. The Big Picture

36. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Auger North 30 M€ (from 85) CTA > 2/3 from 100 + 50 M€ KM3NeT 250 M€ Megaton 400-800 M€ Grav Wave 3rd generation 300 M€ DM search 1 ton 60-100 M€ 60-100 M€ 50-200 M€ Double Beta 1 ton 50-200 M€ add 300 M€ for running experiments, upgrades, new methods 30+100+250+200+ 100+100+50+100 ~ 950 M€

37. A cost scenario 2011-2015 • Estimated total cost to be spent between 2011 and 2015 in Europe ~ 1250 M€ • 250 M€ per year (now 135 M€)  factor 2 • Manpower not always included  more than factor 2 • Solutions: • Increased funding • Further internationalization • Staging „factor-2 pressure“

38. Summary • From infancy to maturity: the past 1-2 decades have born the instruments & methods for doing science with high discovery potential. • Accelerated increasein sensitivity in nearly all fields. • A lot of advanced, interesting world-class projects. Europeans lead in many fields. • Physics harvest has started (TeV gamma) or is in reach. Most techniques are mature. • Need radical process of convergence • Detailed milestones (until 2008), technical design reports (2008-2011) • Need increased funding !

39. Backup slides

40. Tables of proposed experiments with cost > 50 M€

41. Expect technical proposals ~ 2009/10

42. For instance: - GERDA + MAJORANA - advanced CUORE

46. HE CR Executive Summary • Construction and operation of Auger North. The present flagship in the search for sources of ultra-high energy cosmic rays is the Southern Pierre Auger Observatory, with a 50% European contribution. The celestial distribution of possible sources and of background radiation and magnetic fields requires full-sky coverage. This is the main idea behind a Northern Auger Observatory, the second being a possible extension to a larger area and measuring to even higher energies. European groups should play a significant role to establish the scientific case, and after its demonstration make a significant contribution to the design and construction of Auger-North. Estimated costs are 85 M€, with about a third of this sum expected from Europe. Construction could start in 2009.

47. HE Gamma Executive Summary • Construction and operation of the large Cherenkov Telescope Array, CTA. European instruments are leading the field of ground-based high-energy gamma ray astronomy. The rich results from current instruments show that high-energy phenomena are ubiquitous in the sky; in fact, some of the objects discovered emit most of their power in the gamma-ray range and are barely visible at other wavelengths (“dark accelerators”). The need for a next-generation instrument is obvious, and its required characteristics are well understood. The Roadmap Committee very strongly recommends the construction of a next-generation facility, CTA. CTA should both boost the sensitivity by another order of magnitude and enlarge the usable energy range. CTA is conceived to cover both hemispheres, with one site in each. The instruments should be prepared by a common European consortium and share R&D, technologies and instrument designs to the extent possible. Cooperation with similar efforts underway in the US and in Japan should be explored. The price tag for one site is in the 50-100 M€ range. The desirable start of construction is 2010.

48. HE neutrinos Executive Summary • Construction and initial operation of KM3NeT. The physics case for high energy neutrino astronomy is obvious: neutrinos can provide an uncontroversial proof of the hadronic character of the source; moreover they can reach us from cosmic regions which are opaque to other types of radiation. European physicists have played a key role in construction and operation of the two pioneering large neutrino telescopes, NT200 in Lake Baikal and AMANDA at the South Pole, and are also strongly involved in AMANDA’s successor, IceCube. A complete sky coverage, in particular of the central parts of the Galaxy with many promising source candidates, requires a cubic kilometre detector in the Northern Hemisphere complementing IceCube. A strong community has grown over the last decade, with the goal to prepare the construction of this future detector in the Mediterranean. Prototype installations (NESTOR, NEMO) and an AMANDA-sized telescope (ANTARES) are expected to be installed in 2006/2007. An EU-funded 3-year study (KM3NeT) is in progress to work out the technical design of a single, optimized large future research infrastructure “KM3NeT”. Its design should incorporate initial results from IceCube as well as the improved knowledge on Galactic sources as provided by H.E.S.S. and MAGIC gamma ray observations. The cost scale for KM3NeT is expected to be roughly 230-250 M€; more precise estimates will result from the Design Study. The construction of KM3NeT has to be preceded by the successful operation of small scale or prototype detector(s) in the Mediterranean and could start in 2011.

50. Water, LAr LAr, Scint p-decay: status and prospects