Strategies for Understanding and Addressing Risk Tolerance

1. Strategies for Understanding and Addressing Risk Tolerance January 2011 Presented by: D.J. (Dave) Fennell Senior Safety Advisor, Imperial Oil Resources Senior Technical Professional –Safety, ExxonMobil Production Company On behalf of: ExxonMobil Human Factors Center of Excellence

2. 10 Factors Influencing Risk Tolerance Strategies for Reducing Risk Tolerance Actions to Address Risk Tolerance at Your Worksite

3. Risk Perception and Tolerance Model Maturity of Supporting Tools at ExxonMobil Tools in place and being used, effectiveness may lack in some areas Hazard Identification “See it” Mature safety culture will be functional on this topic, some areas will require more effort to understand the consequences of hazards. Risk Perception “Understand it” Approaches for addressing tolerance are general weak across the company, this is the focus of this presentation. Risk Tolerance “Accept or Reject it”

5. 5. Lack of or inadequate procedures 6. Inadequate communication of expectations regarding procedures or standards 1. Lack of skill or knowledge 2. Doing the job according to procedure or standards takes more time and effort 7. Inadequate tools or equipment (availability, condition & use; workplace design) 3.Short-cutting the procedure or standards has been tolerated Develop follow up actions 4. In past, not following procedure or standards did not result in an incident Implement follow up actions Verify and validate follow up actions LPS Root Cause Analysis Flow Chart Incident, Near Miss or Questionable Item Occurs – Why? Personal Factors Job Factors 8. External Factors

6. Conventional Operations (Sept 3 2009) 42%

7. Cold Lake Operations (Sept 3 2009) 40%

8. 10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance • Overestimating Capability/Experience ↑ • Familiarity with the Task ↑ • Seriousness of Outcome ↓ • Voluntary Actions and Being in Control ↑ • Personal Experience with an Outcome ↓ • Cost of Non-Compliance ↓ • Confidence in the Equipment ↑ • Confidence in Protection and Rescue ↑ • Potential Profit & Gain from Actions ↑ • Role Models Accepting Risk ↑

9. Hazardrecognitionandrisktolerance Hazard Recognition and Risk Tolerance Hazard RecognitionRisk Tolerance =

13. January 2009

14. IOR Employees are generally quite good at Hazard Recognition • 2008 Safety Perception Survey • “Do employees understand the hazards of the operations they perform?” - 92% • “Do you initiate action to correct hazards?” - 99% • “Did you receive adequate safety training?” - 92%

15. JSA often identifies the hazard • Hazard is discounted or no follow through on the mitigation

16. 10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance

17. 10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance • Overestimating Capability/Experience ↑ • Familiarity with the Task ↑ • Seriousness of Outcome ↓ • Voluntary Actions and Being in Control ↑ • Personal Experience with an Outcome ↓ • Cost of Non-Compliance ↓ • Confidence in the Equipment ↑ • Confidence in Protection and Rescue ↑ • Potential Profit & Gain from Actions ↑ • Role Models Accepting Risk ↑

18. Factors Influencing Risk Tolerance 1) Overestimating Capability/Experience “I can lift 75 kg in the gym ... I can lift this nitrogen bottle” “I have driven in worse conditions than this and did just fine” Strategies for Reducing Tolerance • Reflect on your role as a mentor – the person who is watching may not have the same skill, experience or capability. • Acknowledge that despite your ability, the exposure is still there. • Acknowledge that the capability or skill may be sufficient and then reinforce the way that it should be done.

19. 10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance • Overestimating Capability/Experience ↑ • Familiarity with the Task ↑ • Seriousness of Outcome ↓ • Voluntary Actions and Being in Control ↑ • Personal Experience with an Outcome ↓ • Cost of Non-Compliance ↓ • Confidence in the Equipment ↑ • Confidence in Protection and Rescue ↑ • Potential Profit & Gain from Actions ↑ • Role Models Accepting Risk ↑

20. Factors Influencing Risk Tolerance 2) Familiarity with the Task - Complacency “He had done this task 500 times without hurting himself” “We had stack about 200 of them when ...” “I do it about 10 times every day” Strategies for Reducing Tolerance • ‘Situational Awareness’ – Treat every time like the first time .... ‘Stop and Think’ • ‘What could go wrong this time?’ • ‘How would I teach a new person to do this?’ • ‘Do I still do it by the book? Have I just been luck?’

21. 10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance • Overestimating Capability/Experience ↑ • Familiarity with the Task ↑ • Seriousness of Outcome ↓ • Voluntary Actions and Being in Control ↑ • Personal Experience with an Outcome ↓ • Cost of Non-Compliance ↓ • Confidence in the Equipment ↑ • Confidence in Protection and Rescue ↑ • Potential Profit & Gain from Actions ↑ • Role Models Accepting Risk ↑

22. Cable suddenly tightened and IP’s hand became trapped between cable and wench drum. Factors Influencing Risk Tolerance 3) Seriousness of the Outcome ‘Pinch Point’ ... what about ‘Crush’ or ‘Amputation’ point “Sweet gas” ?? “Hot Water” ?? Strategies for Reducing Tolerance • Stop and Think “How bad could it be? No, really ...How bad could it be?”

23. The Event: While backing a truck/trailer onto a barge, the driver lost sight of the deckhand who was providing direction. The driver continued to move the trailer back after losing sight of the signaler - pinning the signaler's legs between the back of the trailer and a toolbox on the deck. The deckhand suffered soft tissue injuries to their legs (luckily, no broken bones) The Learning: The driver of the truck did not stop when losing sight of their signaler. The signaler put themselves in the line of fire after losing eye contact with the driver. Several fatalities occur in Alberta each year where drivers have backed over their signalers. The standards in the Safety Management System (Section 6 Subject 11 Page 6-91) state: Drivers must: • stop if they lose sight of a signaler Actions: Ensure all drivers: - understand the standards for signalling, - understand their responsibility to maintain eye contact with their signaler - understand the consequences of not strictly adhering to this standard. Signaler Pinned by Truck Deckhand pinned here

25. 10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance • Overestimating Capability/Experience ↑ • Familiarity with the Task ↑ • Seriousness of Outcome ↓ • Voluntary Actions and Being in Control ↑ • Personal Experience with an Outcome ↓ • Cost of Non-Compliance ↓ • Confidence in the Equipment ↑ • Confidence in Protection and Rescue ↑ • Potential Profit & Gain from Actions ↑ • Role Models Accepting Risk ↑

26. Factors Influencing Risk Tolerance 4) Voluntary Actions and Being in Control Key factor in off the job risk – 28 times more likely to be hurt off the job Strategies for Reducing Tolerance • Integrate ‘Stop and Think’ into your personal activities

27. 10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance • Overestimating Capability/Experience ↑ • Familiarity with the Task ↑ • Seriousness of Outcome ↓ • Voluntary Actions and Being in Control ↑ • Personal Experience with an Outcome ↓ • Cost of Non-Compliance ↓ • Confidence in the Equipment ↑ • Confidence in Protection and Rescue ↑ • Potential Profit & Gain from Actions ↑ • Role Models Accepting Risk ↑

28. Factors Influencing Risk Tolerance 5) Personal Experience with an Outcome If you have seen a serious outcome, you will be less tolerant of the risk Problem: As Incident Rates improve, fewer people will have had personal experience and leads to Scepticism • Strategies for Reducing Tolerance • ‘Expert observers’, supervisors, ‘keepers of the corporate memory’ have the obligation to ensure workers know : • a) Incidents have occurred because of not following that standard (i.e. What could go wrong?) • b) Demonstrate that there have been serious consequences (i.e. How bad could it be?)

29. Well Servicing Fatality - May 2002 A well servicing worker was fatally injured when he was pulled into the rotating draw works by the strap on his fall arrest harness. 1) Loose clothing and personal protective equipment around rotating equipment 2) Equipment guarding Straps caught here Draw works guard rail Re-enactment of how straps were caught

30. 10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance • Overestimating Capability/Experience ↑ • Familiarity with the Task ↑ • Seriousness of Outcome ↓ • Voluntary Actions and Being in Control ↑ • Personal Experience with an Outcome ↓ • Cost of Non-Compliance ↓ • Confidence in the Equipment ↑ • Confidence in Protection and Rescue ↑ • Potential Profit & Gain from Actions ↑ • Role Models Accepting Risk ↑

31. Factors Influencing Risk Tolerance 6) Cost of Non Compliance Greater cost of non compliance lowers risk tolerance Aviation industry – Low risk tolerance, strictly regulated, high cost of non-compliance. Strategies for Reducing Tolerance • Identify the cost of non compliance and increase it where necessary • Remove barriers and increase reward for compliance

32. 10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance • Overestimating Capability/Experience ↑ • Familiarity with the Task ↑ • Seriousness of Outcome ↓ • Voluntary Actions and Being in Control ↑ • Personal Experience with an Outcome ↓ • Cost of Non-Compliance ↓ • Confidence in the Equipment ↑ • Confidence in Protection and Rescue ↑ • Potential Profit & Gain from Actions ↑ • Role Models Accepting Risk ↑

33. Factors Influencing Risk Tolerance 7) Confidence in the Equipment • “Ladder is twice as stable, therefore ... ” • 1995 US Study – Cars with ABS have more accidents, no safety gain with airbags because drivers became more aggressive. • Parachuting – Failure to deploy replaced with late deployment Strategies for Reducing Tolerance • Training on limitations of the equipment and engineering • Stop and Think ... What will happen if it does fail?

34. 10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance • Overestimating Capability/Experience ↑ • Familiarity with the Task ↑ • Seriousness of Outcome ↓ • Voluntary Actions and Being in Control ↑ • Personal Experience with an Outcome ↓ • Cost of Non-Compliance ↓ • Confidence in the Equipment ↑ • Confidence in Protection and Rescue ↑ • Potential Profit & Gain from Actions ↑ • Role Models Accepting Risk ↑

35. Factors Influencing Risk Tolerance 8) Confidence in Protection and Rescue • British study – workers with back belts tend to lift greater weights Strategies for Reducing Tolerance • Understand the limitations of protection & rescue measures • See them as ‘last lines of defence’, or ‘not to be relied upon’ ? • “Every job should be able to be done safely by a 65 year old with a bad back and ...”Howie Dingle

36. 10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance • Overestimating Capability/Experience ↑ • Familiarity with the Task ↑ • Seriousness of Outcome ↓ • Voluntary Actions and Being in Control ↑ • Personal Experience with an Outcome ↓ • Cost of Non-Compliance ↓ • Confidence in the Equipment ↑ • Confidence in Protection and Rescue ↑ • Potential Profit & Gain from Actions ↑ • Role Models Accepting Risk ↑

37. Factors Influencing Risk Tolerance 9) Potential Profit and Gain from Action • US Highways Study – deaths on highways tracks directly with the economy • Alberta WHS – fatalities and lost time incidents in the oil patch increase and decrease with the price of oil. Strategies for Reducing Tolerance • Remove rewards for risk taking • Eliminate barriers to doing it the ‘right way’

38. 10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance • Overestimating Capability/Experience ↑ • Familiarity with the Task ↑ • Seriousness of Outcome ↓ • Voluntary Actions and Being in Control ↑ • Personal Experience with an Outcome ↓ • Cost of Non-Compliance ↓ • Confidence in the Equipment ↑ • Confidence in Protection and Rescue ↑ • Potential Profit & Gain from Actions ↑ • Role Models Accepting Risk ↑

39. Factors Influencing Risk Tolerance 10) Role Models Accepting Risk • When Role Models in a work group accept a certain level of risk, they influence the decisions to accept risk by other members of the group. Strategies for Reducing Tolerance • Identify and address the risk takers immediately (including yourself – where are you on the ‘risk-taking’ scale?) • Recognize ‘Erosion of Standards’ and address immediately

40. What Could Go Wrong? • 1) Review the serious incidents that have happened in the past and learn from these incidents • Coach workers on how to recognize new hazards • Recognize potential consequences of those hazards • Reduce the tolerable level of risk • Calibrate others so their judgement is at the same lowest acceptable level of risk

41. How Bad Could It Be? • Use ‘safety conversations’ (LPO, Stop and Think, Safety Meetings) to increase awareness on potential outcomes. • Keep the ‘corporate memory’ alive • Risk is impacted by the number of ‘Barriers’ between actions and outcomes

42. What can I do about this? 2) Follow up on the ‘Personal Risk Behaviours’ identified at Fresh Start: a) Hold safety meeting discussions (or one on one during LPO’s) on what they identified and their progress b) Ask workers to share their identified personal risks and commitments to change at safety meetings. (Start by sharing yours). c) Continue to use the ‘Personal Risk’ Stop and Think cards with the expectation of identifying another personal at risk behaviour

44. “Together with our contractors we can create the safety culture that lowers Risk Tolerance”