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The Swedish Model , part 2

The Swedish Model , part 2. Introduction to politics Lars Niklasson Education and training Lars Niklasson Governance & privatization Bo Persson Legitimacy & efficiency Lars Niklasson Drivers of change Elin Wihlborg Seminar on the literature Seminar on individual papers.

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The Swedish Model , part 2

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  1. The Swedish Model, part 2 IntroductiontopoliticsLars Niklasson Education and trainingLars Niklasson Governance & privatizationBo Persson Legitimacy & efficiencyLars Niklasson Drivers ofchangeElin Wihlborg Seminar on the literature Seminar on individualpapers

  2. 7. Introductionto the politicsof the welfarestate • 1976-82-91-94: Challenges and decentralization • 1995: Membershipof the European Union • Late 90s: Cutbacksto save the welfarestate • Toogeneroustowork? • 2006: Back to ”work for welfare” (Arbetslinjen) • = Reforms to save the welfarestate? • Influence from 1997: The European Social Model • Whereto? A Social Investment State?

  3. A new typeofwelfarestate?(Morel, Palier & Palme, intro) • 1. Social investments in skillsand modern needs/risks (work/familylife, changeofcareers etc.) • = an Economist’sperspective on welfare:utilityratherthan social rights, ”productive social policy” • = Collectiveresponsibility • Alva and Gunnar Myrdal: families and women • (Wantedselectivepolicies) • 2. Keynes: the macroeconomy, moretraditional/male • 3. Neoliberals: rigidities, market distortions, gov’tfailure • Three paradigms (table 1.1) SIWS as a hybrid

  4. A new typeofwelfarestate, continued • Critique: • Less support for passive unemploymentwith the focus on ”activation” • Less support tostayoutside the labor market • Bad implementation ofpoliciesagainstexclusion in the Lisbonstrategy • An instrumental view on women and children (as labor force) • Divergent views (Nordic vs Anglo-Liberal): • Esping-Andersen on positive effectsof social rights, aim for equality, combination of investment and protection • Giddens on moral hazard and duties, beneficialinequalities, support as springboard, from passive toactivemeasures

  5. Waves oftransformation(Hemerijk 2012) • 1. Keynesianism after WWII (the Depression) • From charityto right, tamingcapitalism, classcompromise, embedded liberalism (Bretton Woods) • 2. Neoliberalism after the 70s (Stagflation) • Monetarism (balanced budgets, low inflation, stablecurrency), flexibility, gov’t as problem, selectivepolicies • OECD Jobs Study 1994: highunemployment in Europe, EMU to limit politics, social pacts/not cutbacks • 3. Social investment since 90s (the Third Way) • OECD 1996, EU 1997, Esping-Andersen et al 2002. A balance. The welfarestatecan be positive for competitiveness. Structural (not cyclical) unemploymentneedscapacitating services

  6. Social investment(Jenson 2012) Beyond neoliberalism: critics on the left and right Investment (not spending) = future profits Responsibility mix: market, family, community, state Universal coverage Fostering prevention, rights and duties Governancethroughnetworks: communities (?) (Sweden: Learning accounts, citizen choice?) Neoliberalism failed: highspending & problems in Europe, experiments in Asia, revisedideas 1997 (World Bank)

  7. Ageingpopulations(Lindh 2012) Demographictransition: problem and opportunity Ageing population effect in 2030-40 National variety, National Transfer Accounts Transfers over the lifecycle: independence, retirement Life expectancy, fertility rates: dependency rates Worklonger, havemorebabies: welfare support Pensions: savings or pay-as-you-go Parentalleave Consequences for jobs: more services, less goods

  8. Post-crisispolicy(Diamond & Liddle 2012) • MorebarrierstoEuropean social policy duetoaftershocksof the crisis, especially public finance • Directeffects: unemployment, austerity • EU divergence • Globalisationwinners and losers • Demography • Migration • The stateremainsbigbutchangesitsrole (NPM) • An opportunity for a European Social Model?

  9. Climatepolicy(Sommestad 2012) • Social policiesto support climate policy • Market-basedclimatepolicies: emissions trading • Incomeequalityleadstobetterclimate(?) • Public ethos, economic instruments regressive • Sectoralimpact: less agriculture, energy-intensive industries, more transport • Need for industrial policy, employment policy, dialogue, public investments (-- a role for markets, banks?) • The new economicsofsustainabledevelopment (Stern) • Long-term investments in public goods: educationetc.

  10. From LisbontoEurope 2020(Lundvall & Lorenz 2012) • The LisbonStrategy (2000):wide and with a goal: • ”The mostcompetitive region in the world” • ”Europe 2020” (2010): narrower, withpriorities • Smart, sustainable, inclusivegrowth (+targets) • Continuitywith the focusedLisbonStrategy 2005-10 • Stillweak implementation (OMC), changeofmajority, SGP • EuropeanEmploymentStrategy: qualityjobs? Flexicurity? Less competitivenesswith less cohesion? • No understandingof the learningeconomy (or EMU) • A transnational welfarestateneeded = Europeanidentity

  11. A new economicmodel(Morel, Palier & Palme, conclusion) • A paradigm in searchof a new economicmodel • Modernisingideas • Capacitatingpolicies: education, family, employment • Weak implementation: • Increase in expenditure, not investments • Protection and promotion: the Nordics (NL, UK) • Activation = thirdway = ”toocloseto neoliberalism” • The analysis: disincentives, lack offlexibility • The solution: workingpoor. (Conservation?) Skillsareneeded.

  12. A new economicmodel, contd. Withhighskilljobs, moredifficulttoemploy migrants New national accounts? Investments vs consumption Political triggers: competition for the femalevote Against neoliberalism (– a new coalitionof socialists and conservatives? mercantilism, competitiveness) Germany not a viable alternative (?) Gradualchangemayleadtoparadigmaticchange

  13. Morel, Palier & Palme 2012: Towards a social investment welfarestate? Ideas, policies and challenges 1. Whatare the differencesbetweenGiddens and Esping-Andersen on Social Investment policies? 2. Whatare the threewavesreactionsagainst? 3. Whatare the differencesbetweeninvestments and savings? 10. In what sense is demography an opportunity? 11. Is the crisis an opportunity for a European Social Model? 12. What is the linkbetween social and climatepolicies? 13. What is missing in Europe 2020? 14. What kind ofcoalition(-s) would support a European Social Modelbased on the ideaof social investments?

  14. 8. Case study: Education and training • Two parts: • Primary, secondary, tertiaryeducation • Skillsdevelopment and training for adults • Structures, actors, processes, achievements • Challenges • Europeancomparisons (Morel, Palier & Palme 2012)

  15. Education policy Pre-school, primaryschool 1-9, secondary 10-12 National curricula, frameworklegislation and control Local and private implementation A strong focus on resultssince 2006: more uniform A debate on segregation, vocational programs

  16. Highereducation • Xxuniversities (PhD-granting) • Yy colleges (limited PhD-granting) • Several private, two independent • Alsosomevocationaltertiaryeducation (YH) • Student loanstostudy in Sweden and abroad • Quasi-market since 1993: • Formula funding, deregulation, qualitycontrol • Fees for non-EES students (exceptexchange) • What drives innovation in highereducation? • Competitionand/or top-down inititives?

  17. Labor market policy: training • Active labor market policy, ALMP = training programs • A national policy: peopleneedtomoveto the jobs • Formerly regional and corporatist, nowcentralized • Performancetargetsleadtocreaming • Exclusion: difficulttohelpclientswithmanyneeds • Localcollaboration or competition? • Training programs by local and regional gov’tstoo • ”One door in”, joined-upgovernmentbottom-up: • Infotek = guidance, Lärcentrum = co-location

  18. Consistent? Efficient? • The policiesoverlap in adult education • Are the systems integrated? • Do theypromoteequality (ofopportunity/outcomes)? • Do they support individualdevelopment? • Do they support economicgrowth? • Nextlecture on governance and privatization

  19. Good for the citizens? • Moreintegrated public services? • Moreadaptable services? • Not good at solvingcomplex problems, or these problems arenowmorevisible? • Fighting exclusion • Support for economicgrowth (betterskillsdevelopment? A strong business climate?) • Accountability?

  20. OECD comparisons(Nikolai 2012) Compensatorypolicies: unemployment, old age Investment policies: ALMP, family, education Spendingconvergence over time Spending in cash or in kind (services) Expansion of old age insurance and family benefits ALMP: moreactivation, less spending Four clusters (low/high) Figure 4.3-4.6 Increasedspendingbut less on education Convergence on Scandinavia or the UK?

  21. Employmentpolicies(de la Porte & Jacobsson 2012) • The EuropeanEmploymentStrategy, EES 1997 • After EMU, todevelopskills, part of the LisbonStrategy • Synergiesofeconomic, labor market and social policies • Targets the continental and Mediterraneancountries • Soft policy, OMC: increasedemploymentdueto EES? • Policy frame: problem, goal, benchmarks, instruments • Contradicts the economic policy frame (EMU) • Flexi+curity, employability, a role for social partners • EES has become a referencepoint, butlittlechange

  22. Employmentpolicies, contd • The Nordic countries: big fit • Less quality in activation, structuralissues not reformed • The English-speakingcountries: fit • UK: Domestically driven reforms, Ireland: ESF • The Continental countries: misfit • Moreactivation, ”Modèledanois”, Hartz reforms • The Mediterraneancountries: misfit • Moreflexibility, less security (oppositeofsocial investment) • The EastEuropeancountries: lowspending • Activation and flexibility, weak social partners

  23. Work-familypolicies(Morgan 2012) • Femaleemployment, gender equality, childcare • Pioneers: France, Norway, Sweden • Path-shifters: Germany, Netherlands, UK • Slow-movers: Austria, Italy, Spain • Politicalforces: new ideas? Barriers? • Electoralstrategies (Sweden and Norway) • The representation ofwomen in politics • General conservatism in the slow-movingcountries

  24. Active labor market policy(Bonoli 2012) • Ambiguousconcept. Four (six) types(table 7.1): • Investment in human capital? (or incentivestowork?) • Pro-market orientation? (or temporaryjobs?) • Spendingprofiles in sixcountries (figure 7.1) • General decline 1995-2005, except the UK • Reductionof ”jobcreation”, increaseof ”employmentassistance”, declineof ”training” • Spendinglevels: Nordic, Continental, UK • From education (60s), via occupation (70s) to re-entry (90s). Laggards becomeleaders: Denmark, UK.

  25. More and betterjobs?(Nelson & Stephens 2012) • Investment policiesarerelatedtoknowledge-inten-sive services and discretionarylearningemployment • Problems: overeducation? Inhibiting business investment? Relevant adjustmentofcontent? • But: markets aren’tperfect, education is undersupplied(?), a needtorecruitinternationally • Data: (1) 1972-99, (2) cross-sectionalcorrelations • USA at top and bottom • Investments leadtoemploymentand qualityjobs

  26. The globalizinglearningeconomy(Lundvall & Lorenz 2012) A need for organizationallearningandnetworking Discretionarylearning = moreautonomythan in ”leanproduction” (But: standardized processes!) North vs south Highskilljobs less exposedtoforeigncompetition Flexicuritymakes it easy for firmstoupgrade and makes individuals less risk-averse Vocationaltraining and informallearning Equality, openness and trust Learning by doing and by interaction withcustomers etc. Social investments on an international scale for migrants?

  27. Morel, Palier & Palme 2012: Towards a social investment welfarestate? 4. Whatspendingpatternscanwesee over time? 5. Whichgroupsofcountrieshaveincreased the policiesofactivation? 6. Whatare the political drivers and barriers for and againstequalrights for women? 7. Howdid the laggards becomeleaders in ALMP? 8. Howcan social investmentsleadtobetterjobs? 9. Whatare the pros and consofflexicurity?

  28. Niklasson 1996: ”Quasi-markets in highereducation – A comparativeanalysis” 1. What is the differencebetween ”market by design” and ”market by interaction”? 2. In what sense did the regulationof the universitiesconverge on a common model? 3. In what sense did Sweden and the UK move in oppositedirections?

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