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The Polish Leasing Association press conference reveals the results of the leasing industry in 2010, with increased registrations of new passenger cars and higher financing value. Key members include Masterlease Polska S.A., Mercedes-Benz Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o., Millennium Leasing Sp. z o.o., and more.
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Leasing Industry Results in 2010 Polish Leasing Association Press Conference 31st January 2011 Intercontinental Hotel Warsaw
List of Polish Leasing Association Members Masterlease Polska S.A. Mercedes-Benz Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o. Millennium Leasing Sp. z o.o. NOMA 2 Sp. z o.o. Nordea Finance Polska S.A. ORIX Polska S.A. PEKAO Leasing Sp. z o.o. Raiffeisen Leasing Polska S.A. Scania Finance Polska Sp. z o.o. SEB Leasing Polska Sp.z o.o. SG Equipment Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o. SGB-Trans-Leasing PTL Sp. z o.o. Siemens Finance Sp. z o.o. VB Leasing Polska Polska S.A. VFS Usługi Finansowe Polska Sp. z o.o. Volkswagen Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o. Polski Związek Wynajmu i Leasingu Pojazdów Bankowy Fundusz Leasingowy S.A. BGŻ Leasing Sp. z o.o. BNP Paribas Lease Group Sp. z o.o. BRE Leasing Sp. z o.o. BZ WBK Finanse & Leasing S.A. Caterpillar Financial Services Poland Sp. z o.o. De Lage Landen Leasing Polska S.A. Deutsche Leasing Polska S.A. DnB Nord Leasing Sp. z o.o. Europejski Fundusz Leasingowy S.A. Handlowy-Leasing S.A. IKB Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o. Immoconsult Polska Sp. z o.o. Immorent Leasing Polska Sp. z o. o. ING Lease (Polska) Sp. z o.o. Kredyt Lease S.A.
25 000 21 540 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 2009 2010 registration of new passenger cars with truck homologation 45 000 60% 40 000 50% 35 000 30 000 40% 25 000 30% 20 000 15 000 20% 10 000 10% 5 000 0 0% ` 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 2009 2010 registration of new passenger cars registration of new passenger cars with truck homologation share of new registered homologated passenger cars Registration of new passenger cars with truck homologation • In total, there were 315 thousand passenger cars registered in 2010; increase of 16%. In December there were 42 609 vehicles registered, the most since joining the EU. It is also one of the highest monthly registration rates. • Growing B2B sales rate: 65% in November, much more in December. • 21540 cars with cargo partition were registered in December 2010, almost 9 thousand more than in November. • Passenger cars with truck homologation constituted 50.6% of all registrations concluded in December. The annual rate amounts to 30.8%. • There were 97 266 cars with cargo partition registered in 2010; 112% more than in 2009. • Leasing industry occurred to be well prepared, both financially and organisationally, to attend the enormous demand for cars with cargo partition. • The average monthly value of financed movables in Q4 increased of 50% (to 2.9 billion) in comparison to the average rate from the previous nine monthsamounting to PLN 1.9 billion. • The turnover of the sector where cars with cargo partition are reported doubled in Q4, comparing to Q3, and constituted more than 40% of the annual turnover. Source: Samar
Jan-Sept’09 Jan-Sept’10 change Oct-Dec’09 Oct-Dec’10 change Jan-Dec’09 Jan-Dec’10 change Vehicles 8 451 10 082 3 670 5 816 12 120 15 898 19,3% 58,5% 31,2% Passenger Delivery Cars 5 674 6 809 20,0% 2 651 3 974 49,9% 8 325 10 783 29,5% Truck Vehicles 2 394 2 867 19,7% 843 1 494 77,3% 3 237 4 361 34,7% Other Vehicles 383 406 6,0% 176 348 98,0% 559 754 35,0% Machines 5 814 6 118 1 835 2 418 7 649 8 536 5,2% 31,8% 11,6% IT 332 299 136 165 469 464 -10,0% 20,9% -1,0% Planes, ships and railway 247 470 297 179 544 650 90,5% -39,6% 19,4% Other Movables 110 112 31 37 141 149 1,9% 17,4% 5,3% Movables – total number 14 954 17 081 14,2% 5 970 8 615 44,3% 20 923 25 696 22,8% Real Estate - financing 1 646 1 018 -38,1% 427 577 34,9% 2 073 1 595 -23,1% Real Estate – only management 0 232 0 0 0 232 Financing in general (L+P) 16 599 18 099 9,0% 6 397 9 192 43,7% 22 997 27 291 18,7% Leasing Industry Results in 2010 (1) Total number of assets financed by leasing companies • Better results in truck vehicles sector +3.3% in Q1, +22.1% in Q2, +34.2% in Q3 and +77.3% in Q4. It is caused not only by low basis effect but also by the growth on the transportation market and improving finance condition of transport companies. • Machines constituted the third pillar of growth in Q4 - +31.8% YOY. It is a result of high production capacity use in production facilities and high (present and expected) level of industrial production sold. • In 2010 the value of machines financed by leasing companies was largely supported with loans. It resulted in growing share of agricultural machinery and medical equipment in new production structure. • IT section still in downturn. • Finally, the growth on real estate market in Q4. However, the whole year in downturn. • Investment break among small and medium companies in 2009 resulted in 29% drop in new production of leasing concerning movables. • Growth on movables market in 2010. After twenty-two-month drop, as of March, we record the growth of the financed assets value YOY.The following quarters registered the growth of: + 5%, +19.1%, +17.9% and +44.3%. It is a continues tendency. • There were two main pillars of growth within the three first quarters: light vehicles (in fact cars with cargo partition) and truck vehicles. • The fiscal changes regarding VAT deduction resulted in circa 106% growth of the sector where passenger cars with truck homologation are reported.
Jan-Sept’ 09 Jan-Sept’10 change Oct-Dec’09 Oct-Dec’10 change Jan-Dec’09 Jan-Dec’10 change Vehicles 8 451 10 026 3 670 5 666 12 120 15 692 18,6% 54,4% 29,5% Passenger Delivery Cars 5 674 6 782 19,5% 2 651 3 939 48,6% 8 325 10 722 28,8% Truck Vehicles 2 394 2 838 18,6% 843 1 455 72,7% 3 237 4 293 32,6% Other Vehicles 383 406 6,0% 176 272 54,4% 559 677 21,2% Machines 5 814 4 652 1 835 2 002 7 649 6 654 -20,0% 9,1% -13,0% IT 332 283 136 164 469 447 -14,8% 20,2% -4,6% Planes, ships and railway 247 459 297 171 544 630 85,8% -42,4% 15,8% Other Movables 110 111 31 37 141 148 0,9% 17,3% 4,5% Movables – in total 14 954 15 530 3,9% 5 970 8 040 34,7% 20 923 23 571 12,7% Real Estate - financing 1 646 1 018 -38,1% 427 401 -6,1% 2 073 1 420 -31,5% Real Estate – only management 0 232 0 0 0 232 Leasing in general - financing 16 599 16 549 -0,3% 6 397 8 442 32,0% 22 997 24 990 8,7% Leasing Industry Results in 2010 (2) Assets financed with leasing Source: Polish Leasing Association
loan share loan loan Jan-Sept’09 Jan-Sept’10 Oct-Dec’09 Oct-Dec’10 Jan-Dec’09 Jan-Dec’10 share share Vehicles 0 56 0 150 0 205 0,6% 2,6% 1,3% Passenger Delivery Cars 0 27 0,4% 0 35 0,9% 0 62 0,6% Truck Vehicles 0 29 1,0% 0 39 2,6% 0 67 1,5% Other Vehicles 0 0 0,0% 0 77 22,0% 0 77 10,2% Machines 0 1 466 0 416 0 1 882 24,0% 17,2% 22,1% IT 0 16 0 1 0 17 5,3% 0,6% 3,6% Planes, ships and railway 0 12 0 8 0 20 2,5% 4,6% 3,1% Other Movables 0 1 0 0 0 1 1,0% 0,1% 0,8% Movables – in total 0 1 551 9,1% 0 575 6,7% 0 2 126 8,3% Real Estate 0 0 0,0% 0 175 30,4% 0 175 11,0% Loans in general 0 1 551 8,6% 0 750 8,2% 0 2 301 8,4% Machines financed with loans Machines financed with leasing Building Machinery Other Machines&Equipment 5% 27% Building Machinery Other Machines&Equipment 39% Medical Equipment 10% 12% Agricultural Machinery 8% Machinery for Food Industry 2% Medical Equipment 5% Printing Machinery for Machines5% Plastics Production and Metalwork 7% Machinery Machinery for Agricultural Machinery 60% for Food Plastics Production Printing Industry 4% and Metalwork 12% Machines 4% Leasing Industry Results in 2010 (3) Assets financed with loans Source: Polish Leasing Association
4 000 80% Total number of assets financed in 2010 [PLN million] 70% 3 500 3 254 Sales YOY / 60% 3 000 2 527 50% 2 500 33% 40% 1 684 1 934 47% 1 706 2 000 30% 21% 1 358 20% 1 500 1 322 20% 1 257 1 250 29% 1 183 10% 0% 1 000 15% -7% 0% 3% 0% 500 -10% 0 -20% ING EFL BRE Pekao BZ WBK Bankowy Raiffeisen VB Leasing Millennium SG Equipment Company Results in 2010 • Greater and greater presence on the market resulted in 19% growth of the asset value financed by leasing companies in 2010. • Growth on the market at the beginning of the year was caused by significant increase of individual company turnovers with moderate result improvement among other companies. • Low basis from the beginning of 2009, when part of the leasing industry limited the production due to liquidity problems and growing risk, does not affect the company results so much. • Companies focused mainly on real estate activity contributed to lower turnovers in 2009. • Bigger leasing companies record slightly faster pace of growth. In 2010 the sale ofmovables leasing grew in five leading companies of 26.1% YOY while the growth in other companies amounted to 20.6% YOY. Source: Polish Leasing Association
Business Structure of Real Estate Leasing Market Business Structure of Real Estate Leasing Market in 2010 Q1 – Q4 2010 SGB-Trans- Hotels Others Others Recreation Centers Leasing EFL 14,7% 15% 0,1% ING 0,4% Industrial 3,1% 33,3% buildings Office Facilities 37% 18% BZ WBK 4,0% Bankowy 9,0% Raiffeisen Commercial 5,6% and Service Centers 30% Pekao Millennium BRE BNP Paribas 5,9% 7,1% 8,6% 7,2% Leasing Industry Results in 2010 – Real Estate • The value of leased real estate units in 2010 amounted to PLN 1595 million, which proves 23% decrease in comparison to 2009. • After weaker first half of the year when the value of financed assets in Q1 and Q2 did not exceed PLN 300 million, the second half of the year recorded better results. The market of real estate leasing amounted to PLN 457 million in Q3 and PLN 577 million in Q4. The market grew of 35% YOY in the Q4. • Negative dynamics of the market in the whole 2010 resulted from 30% drop of the average transaction value: from PLN 7.86 million in 2009 to PLN 5.48 million in 2010. The number of reported contracts grew from 248 to 225 in the previous year. • In comparison to 2009 the market of real estate transactions financed with leasing is not so concentrated any more. In 2009 almost two-thirds of transactions (quantity and value) were concluded by three leading companies. In 2010 the index for the transaction value amounted to 51% and for the number of transactions, to 65%. • In Q4 2010 the assets financed with loans constituted 30% of the real estate market. Source: Polish Leasing Association
Currency Structure of New Production – real estate Currency Structure of New Production - movables 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% Leasing in PLN 70% 70% 60% 60% Leasing in PLN 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% Leasing in Foreign Currency 20% 20% Leasing in Foreign Currency 10% 10% 0% 0% 2007 2007 I Q 2008 I Q 2009 I Q 2010 I Q 2008 I Q 2009 I Q 2010 II Q 2008 II Q 2009 II Q 2010 II Q 2008 II Q 2009 II Q 2010 IV Q 2008 IV Q 2009 IV Q 2010 IV Q 2008 IV Q 2009 IV Q 2010 III Q 2008 III Q 2009 III Q 2010 III Q 2008 III Q 2009 III Q 2010 Currency Structure of New Production on Leasing Market • In 2010, similarly to 2009, leasing in PLN prevails in new production structure in the case of movables leasing. Its index grew from 81.5% in 2009 to 84% in 2010. The index regarding financing with loans is even higher and amounts to 88.8%. • In the 2010 (in terms of individual quarters) we may observe a slight growth of interest in foreign currency leasing: 16.4% financed movables in the second half of the year in comparison to 14.6% in the first half of the year. The result is much below the historical 32.3% in Q4 2008. • Real estate leasing was usually executed in foreign currency. The share of foreign currency in new production financing decreased significantly and amounted to 45.1% in the first half of 2010. However, the share grew to 67.5% in the second half of the year and exceeded the average historical index estimated for circa 65%. Source: Polish Leasing Association
40 60% 19% leasing market [PLN billion ] 50% % of investments financed with leasing 50% change YOY 35 32,9 32,6 17,0% 40% 17% 34% 30 28% 27,3 30% 19% 15,2% 15% 25 23,0 20% 21,8 14,1% 15% 1% 20 10% 16,3 12,9% 14,2 0% 13% 15 12,4% -10% 10 11,8% -30% 11% -20% 5 10,4% -30% 9% 0 -40% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (P) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 250 20% investment in total [billion ] 221 217 17,6% 211 real change YOY 192 200 15% 14,9% 9,6% 155 150 10% 131 120 6,4% 6,5% 100 5% -1,1% 50 0% -2,0% 0 -5% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (P) Leasing and Investment between 2004 and 2010 • The average annual growth of leasing market amounted to 32% between 2004 and 2007, exceeding the investment dynamics in economy amounting to 11%. As a result the share of leasing in investment financing grew significantly. • In 2008 leasing market was affected by approaching economic crisis recording drops in turnover since May 2008. The truck industry contributed the most to the whole market halt, recording 40% drop in the second half of the year. The transport industry was the first which in Q2 2008 was affected by the economic crisis in Euro zone. • Public infrastructural investment, often co-financed with EU funds, ensured low drops in investment in 2009 and 2010. Private investment started in the second half of 2010. • Current results of the leasing market forecast dynamic growth of investment among companies and general economic growth in 2011. Very successful second half of 2010 for the leasing market resulted in the growth of leasing penetration index amounting to 12.9%. Source: Polish Leasing Association, Central Statistical Office
80 25% 70 25% total value of the active portfolio value of the real estate leasing active portfolio 70 change in relation to the previous period change in relation to the previous period 60 20% 20% 16,2% 56,6 56,5 60 55,3 54,9 48,4 47,8 47,7 53,4 47,3 50 15% 45,4 13,7% 49,8 43,9 15% 50 37,8 40 10% 40 10% 5,2% 10,2% 30 5% 30 -1,4% 3,6% 5% -0,9% -3,9% 20 0% 20 -2,8% 1,8% 0% -2,8% 10 -5% 10 -0,2% 0 -10% 0 -5% 31.12.2007 30.06.2008 31.12.2008 30.06.2009 31.12.2009 30.06.2010 31.12.2010 30.06.2008 31.12.2008 30.06.2009 31.12.2009 30.06.2010 31.12.2010 75 Balance of the investment credits 70 granted to companies by banks [PLN billion] 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 Jul 07 Nov 07 Jul 08 Nov 08 Jul 09 Nov 09 Jul 10 Nov 10 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Mar 07 May 07 Mar 08 May 08 Mar 09 May 09 May 10 Jan 10 Mar 10 Sept 07 Sept 09 Sept 08 Sept 10 Investment Financing – Leasing vs Investment Credit • The total value of leasing amount due amounting to PLN 55.35 billion (PLN 47.79 billion for movables and PLN 7.56 billion for real estate) at the end of 2010 is similar to the value of balance of the investment credits granted to companies by banks (PLN 62.27 billion). Except for credits,leasing is the main external source of financing investments, especially when we take into account great “capacity” of the leasing portfolio (average leasing contract concluded in 2010 for four years). • Value of leasing amount due grew within the last 12 months of 0.7% (mainly owing to the 1.1% growth of movables portfolio). However, it is of 2.2 % lower than two years ago. • Data provided by National Bank of Poland and concerning money supply (on 31st Jan 2010) shows the stabilisation of banks’ credit activity within the scope of investment credits. Within the last 12 months the balance of the credits grew of 2.1%. The total growth within two years amounted to 3.0%. Source: Polish Leasing Association, National Bank of Poland
Polish Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association(PZWLP)Results after Q4 2010 Leszek PomorskiThe President of PZWLP
Results of PZWLP after Q4 2010 The summary of 2010 in the industry of long-term rental Amended regulations Entrepreneur activation Tendencies in the industry Stable year for rental PZWLP 2010 – 17 member companies 2010: three new members of the Association, one resignation Results provided by 16 companies One of the new companies will start to report after Q1 2011 PZWLP – in total after 2010 – 83.274vehicles, including: FSL 69.132 (FSL – Full Service Leasing) LS 4.807 (LS – Leasing Service) FM 9.335 (FM – Fleet Management) Source: PZWLP
Results of PZWLP after Q4 2010 More vehicles in PZWLP fleets Quarterly – in relation to Q3 2010 – increase of10.49 % (7904 vehicles) Annually – in relation to Q4 2009 – increase of16.8 % (11977 vehicles) FSL develops the fastest – 96% more vehicles in 2010(11500) 20 +10,49% 15 83.274 10 +3,21% Diagram no. 1 Dynamics of PZWLP fleet development in 2010 (%) +3,55% 5 -1,09% 71.297 0 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Source: PZWLP
Leaders of Fleet Industry(Members of Polish Leasing Association and PZWLP) • Leaders in three rental categories: FSL, LS i FM • 1. Masterlease Polska 19.997 (including FM 130) • 2. LeasePlan Fleet Management15.291 (including FM 2.402) • 3. Arval Service Lease 13.096 (including FM 206) • 4. ING Car Lease 9.353 (including FM 0) • 5. Carefleet 6.930 (including FM 662) • Leaders in FSL • 1. LeasePlan Fleet Management 12.875 • 2. Arval Service Lease 12.753 • 3. Masterlease Polska 12.044 • 4. ING Car Lease 8.502 • 5. Carefleet 6.268 Source: PZWLP
Leaders of Fleet Industry(Members of Polish Leasing Association and PZWLP) • Leaders in FM • 1. LeasePlan Fleet Management 2.402 • 2. Corpo Flota 1.890 • 3. BRE Leasing 1.508 • 4. Raiffeisen-Leasing 973 • 5. Carefleet 662 • Leaders in LS • 1. Masterlease Polska 7.823 • 2. Bankowy Fundusz Leasingowy 2.638 • 3. Volkswagen Leasing 930 • 4. ING Car Lease 851 Source: PZWLP
Members of Polish Leasing Association and PZWLPLeaders of Fleet MarketTotal Numerical Representation by Product FM 9 465 LS 12 630 FSL 81 176 Based on the results of 17 companies • Polish Leasing Association and PZWLP – in total after 2010: 103271 vehicles • Growth of 14.3%in relation to Q4 2009 Source: PZWLP
change change YOY change YOY change YOY change YOY 2010 2011 2011/2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Vehicles 15 692 16 530 5,3% 7,4% 7,9% 18,5% -5,5% Passenger Delivery Cars 10 722 10 198 -4,9% -1,9% -3,2% 9,3% -15,6% Truck Vehicles 4 293 5 527 28,7% 28,6% 35,0% 35,0% 20,0% Other Vehicles 677 805 18,9% 31,0% 19,0% 37,2% 4,8% Machines 6 654 8 296 24,7% 10,0% 25,0% 35,0% 25,0% IT 447 547 22,4% 30,0% 20,0% 30,0% 15,0% Planes, ships, railway 630 772 22,5% 50,0% 15,0% 15,0% 30,0% Other Movables 148 179 21,3% 30,0% 30,0% 5,0% 30,0% Movables – in total 23 571 26 323 11,7% 9,3% 13,3% 23,7% 3,4% Real Estate 1 420 1 692 19,2% 25,0% 35,0% 10,0% 15,0% Leasing in general 24 990 28 015 12,1% 10,3% 14,3% 22,7% 4,0% Loan Share Loan Share Loan Share Loan Share change 2010 2011 2011/2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2011 Q1 2011 Q1 2011 Vehicles 205 193 -5,9% 0,9% 1,0% 1,3% 1,3% Passenger Delivery Cars 62 59 -3,6% 0,6% 0,6% 0,6% 0,6% Truck Vehicles 67 105 55,7% 1,4% 1,4% 2,1% 2,3% Other Vehicles 77 29 -61,8% 3,2% 3,2% 3,2% 4,0% Machines 1 882 2 391 27,0% 23,0% 21,8% 22,0% 22,8% IT 17 20 19,1% 3,5% 3,5% 3,5% 3,5% Planes, ships, railway 20 35 74,3% 4,0% 4,0% 4,5% 4,5% Other Movables 1 1 21,3% 0,8% 0,8% 0,8% 0,8% Movables – in total 2 126 2 640 24,2% 8,9% 8,6% 9,7% 9,1% Real Estate 175 167 -4,4% 9,0% 9,0% 9,0% 9,0% Leasing in general 2 301 2 807 22,0% 8,9% 8,7% 9,7% 9,1% Leasing Industry Forecast (1) Assets financed with leasing • In 2010 leasing market was prepared for growth in company investment expected in 2011. • Also macroeconomic data from recent months confirms that economy recovers from the global crisis faster than in 2001-2002. The business cycle of nine quarters. • It is expected that the condition of the industry will be improving within the next quarters; leasing companies will be significantly affected by “no-cargo-partition” effect in Q1. • The slowdown of the dynamics in case of the movables market in Q4 2011 is expected as a result of increased sale of cars with cargo partition in November and December 2010. • The expected growth of private investment will be financed mainly with loans. It is a result of growing absorption of EU funds and of bigger interest of leasing companies in such product. Assets financed with loan Source: Polish Leasing Association
change change YOY change YOY change YOY change YOY 2010 2011 2011/2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Vehicles 15 898 16 723 5,2% 8,1% 8,2% 19,3% -6,7% Passenger Delivery Cars 10 783 10 257 -4,9% -1,5% -3,3% 9,6% -15,8% Truck Vehicles 4 361 5 631 29,1% 29,5% 35,5% 36,3% 19,6% Other Vehicles 754 834 10,7% 35,3% 22,9% 41,8% -14,8% Machines 8 536 10 687 25,2% 9,8% 18,7% 33,2% 34,1% IT 464 567 22,3% 34,4% 23,0% 18,3% 18,6% Planes, ships, railway 650 806 24,1% 45,6% 19,2% 16,9% 29,9% Other Movables 149 180 21,3% 31,0% 28,0% 5,1% 30,9% Movables – in total 25 696 28 963 12,7% 9,8% 12,5% 24,3% 6,2% Real Estate 1 595 1 860 16,6% 37,4% 48,4% 20,9% -12,0% Leasing in general 27 291 30 823 12,9% 11,3% 14,0% 24,1% 5,0% Leasing Industry Forecast (2) Total number of assets financed by leasing companies • Almost 97 thousand passenger cars with truck homologation were bought by companies in 2010, which will lead to worse results concerning passenger delivery cars sale in 2011. Bigger demand on passenger cars will not compensate lower number of the cars with cargo partition. Light vehicles sector will be supported by bigger demand on delivery cars and trucks of maximum weight up to 3.5 tons (influence of domestic demand growth). • Trucks will incite the growth in 2011 (as a result of improving financial condition of transport companies, expected significant growth of transport orders and the necessity to replace old vehicles with the new ones due to higher rates of e-myto). Also machines will encourage the growth (the necessity to complete/develop machinery due to growing reliance on production capabilities and greater number of domestic orders). • The market growth in 2011 amounting to circa 13% will correspond with similar growth of investment in national economy. Source: Polish Leasing Association
70 50% 37,1% 40% 60 15,6% 22,0% 30% 50 20% 23,8% 40 5,3% 6,5% 1,9% 10% 30 -5,3% 0% -17,9% 20 -10% 10 -20% -17,7% 0 -30% Q1-Q2 Q3-Q4 Q1-Q2. Q3-Q4. Q1-Q2 Q3-Q4. Q1-Q2 Q3-Q4 Q1-Q2 Q3-Q4 (P) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Investment of the companies over 50 employees [PLN billion] Investment dynamics YOY Company Investments in 2010 Disappointing data: • Investment in economy in 2010 decreased of 2.0% (Q1 -12.8% YOY, Q2 --1.7% YOY, Q3 +0.4% YOYI and Q4 circa +1%). • The first half of 2010 recorded 17.7% decrease in company investments, after Q3 the drops amounted to 10.6%. • Investment in buildings and building structures decreased in Q1, Q2 and Q3 2010 (-13.3% YOY); decrease in machinery investment amounted to 13.6% YOY.Investment in means of transport grew of 20.6%. Nevertheless, the real growth of big and medium company investments in the Q3 2010 amounted to 5.3% YOY. Data by Central Statistical Office
Company Investments – Main Determinants (1) There are also more and more positive aspects: Share of companies planning to begin serious investment within a year Index of investment continuation and share of investing companies Companies continuing investment (right axis) Investment continuation index Data by National Bank of Poland Average (investment continuation index) Companies continuing investment SA (right axis) • The results of leasing industry show promise of company investment growth, the industry develops not only owing to the “cargo partition”. So far, leasing market has been announcing changes in domestic economy investment half a year earlier. • We may observe gradual increase of company investment activity. Both annual and quarterly investment plans are higher. In 2011 there will be more investing companies; there will be also more money allocated to investment. • 23.6% companies will begin new investment in Q1 2011. New investment index is still lower than the long-term average, however, it is higher both in terms of a quarter (+0.7 pp) and of a year (+3.3 pp). • Share of companies realizing investment plan grew in Q4 2010 up to 64.6% (growth of 2 pp Q/Q). It is still much below the level before 2009. The ongoing investment is usually (97.7%) continued without any problems. • Trade gap is still growing (EUR 1.25billion in Sept), thus, the investment demand is growing as well. F01 – companies increasing number of investments New investment index New investment index (SA) Average (new investment index SA) Based-weighted index of new investment SA)
Company Investments – Main Determinants (2) New Investment Index exporter non-exporter • The growth of investment might be expected mainly among export companies and manufacturing facilities. • New investment index is growing among the biggest companies, over 2000 employees (it exceeded the level of the long-term average). • New investment index among companies over 250 employees has been growing since the middle of 2009. • Key issue for leasing companies – the interest in investing in SME sector has been growing for two quarters. • Significant growth of investment activity among the facilities operating in processing industry results from meaningful contribution of exporters.These companies take advantage of global trade growth. • Big fluctuation of the investment prosperity might be observed among companies selling their products only on domestic market. New investment index shows decreasing investment activity of these companies in Q1 2011. • Gradual growth of the investment possibilities for companies focused on domestic market is expected within the following quarters of the year. • Other numerous surveys prove that more companies plan to increase the number of investments. The surveys published by PKPP „Lewiatan” and Deloitte show that 34% more big companies plan to increase the number of investments in 2011 than to stop the ongoing ones. Data by National Bank of Poland
Company Investments – Main Determinants (3) 200 Commercial bank deposits from companies [PLN billion] 190 183 billion 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 Sept 09 Sept 07 Sept 08 Jan 09 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jul 09 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Sept 10 Mar 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Nov 10 Mar 07 May 07 Mar 08 May 09 May 08 May 10 Mar 10 Average Level of Production Capacity Use Data by National Bank of Poland • Continuous growth of production capacity use in Q4 2010: up to 79.9% (growth of 0.1 pp Q/Q and of 2.5% YOY). The index exceeds the long-term average – strong relation to the investment growth. • Low quarterly growth of the index (at 11% growth of industrial production in Q4) suggests that the investment processes started in Q4 of the previous year. • The level of the settled EU funds is growing: PLN 10 billion in 2008, PLN 17 billion in 2009, PLN 36 billion in 2010 (PLN 27 billion planned). The Ministry of Regional Development plans to spend PLN 40 billion in 2011, however, the experts suggest the sum might grow to PLN 52-55 billion. • High production dynamics shall prevail in 2011, which will influence the production capacity use and the necessity for its reconstruction, as confirmed by high PMI. Further dynamic production growth will not be possible without investment. • Positive atmosphere prevails in companies. Good company results, good financial liquidity, improved safety of commercial activity and access to financial sources encourage investment growth. • End ofQ3 2010 was a breaking point for company investments. • Big companies and exporters taking advantage of current industrial growth increase the number of investments as first. They also present the best financial condition. The process started in Q3. • SME sector started the investment process in Q4; it will reach the top in 2011-2012 as result of growing domestic demand. • It is estimated that the investment growth in 2011 will reach 11%. • Capital expenditure in 2011 will be strongly supported with infrastructural projects. The significance of private investment in economy will grow in 2012.
12 000 40 30 10 000 20 8 000 10 6 000 0 -10 4 000 -20 2 000 -30 0 -40 01-08 02-08 03-08 04-08 05-08 06-08 07-08 08-08 09-08 10-08 11-08 12-08 01-09 02-09 03-09 04-09 05-09 06-09 07-09 08-09 09-09 10-09 11-09 12-09 01-10 02-10 03-10 04-10 05-10 06-10 07-10 08-10 09-10 10-10 11-10 Export EURmn Export %YOY 20 industrial production dynamics (%) YOY 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 01-08 03-08 05-08 07-08 09-08 11-08 01-09 03-09 05-09 07-09 09-09 11-09 01-10 03-10 05-10 07-10 09-10 11-10 2010 – Profitable Transformation of Polish Economy (1) From the economy driven by export …. • Countries from Euro zone benefited from the global trade growth and have recently recorded significant increase of production and export. These factors drove the economic growth in Europe in 2010. • The biggest European economy and the biggest business partner of Poland, Germany, took the greatest advantage of good economic situation in Asia and South America (recent production growth amounting to 12% YOY). • Poland benefited from the global trade growth mainly owing to the cooperative character of Polish export. • After the break of export at the turn of 2008 and 2009, annual export dynamics started to grow in November 2009. The dynamics reached 20% in 2010. Since September 2010 we have been recording sale at the level before the global crisis. • The growth of export which started in November 2009 resulted in the growth of sales in Polish industry. The dynamics amounting to 20% in the period of Jan-Nov 2010 resulted in 9.8% growth of the industrial production in the whole 2010 (+11.5% YOY in December). • The growth of the industrial production in the first half of the year regarded mainly industries strongly connected with export. • After the break in Q1 (harsh winter effect), the growth in construction-assembly industry has been recorded since May (+12.3% YOY inDecemberand +3.5% in the whole 2010). Data by Central Statistical Office
5 450 7 employment in enterprises [thousand people] 6 5 400 employment change in % YOY 5 4 5 350 3 5 300 2 1 5 250 0 -1 5 200 -2 5 150 -3 01-08 02-08 03-08 04-08 05-08 06-08 07-08 08-08 09-08 10-08 11-08 12-08 01-09 02-09 03-09 04-09 05-09 06-09 07-09 08-09 09-09 10-09 11-09 12-09 01-10 02-10 03-10 04-10 05-10 06-10 07-10 08-10 09-10 10-10 11-10 12-10 20 real dynamics of payroll in 15 enterprises [% YOY] 10 5 0 -5 -10 01-08 03-08 05-08 07-08 09-08 11-08 01-09 03-09 05-09 07-09 09-09 11-09 01-10 03-10 05-10 07-10 09-10 11-10 18 16 nominal dynamics of retail sale [% YOY] 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 05-08 06-08 07-08 08-08 09-08 10-08 11-08 12-08 01-09 02-09 03-09 04-09 05-09 06-09 07-09 08-09 09-09 10-09 11-09 12-09 01-10 02-10 03-10 04-10 05-10 06-10 07-10 08-10 09-10 10-10 11-10 12-10 2010 – Profitable Transformation of Polish Economy (2) … is currently supported mainly with domestic demand owing to multiplier effects • Export is still significant but it discontinuous being the drive of the Polish economy. The contribution of the trade exchange to GDP was neutral in Q3 but lower of 1.7 pp in Q4. • Companies have been employing more persons since April 2010. The employment on a year-to-year basis have started to grow since May (drops were recorded during the previous 15 months). • At the end of 2010 the employment in companies over 10 employees reached 5.38 million persons, 124 thousand more persons than in the previous year (+2.4%). In order to reach the level of employment equal to the one before the global crisis (Oct 2008) 18 thousand persons would have to be employed, which should happen in spring. It means that 2.5 years are enough to reconstruct the level of employment; it took 7 years to do that during the previous crisis. • Despite the growth of unemployment to 12.3% at the end of the year (12.1% at the end of 2009), it is certain that the period of crisis on the employment market was shorter than it had been expected. • Growth of employment together with the significant growth of salaries (+2.2% in Dec and +0.7% in the whole 2010) result in growth of payroll. Security of employment results in greater purchase. • Smaller companies, focused on domestic market, start to take advantage of the growth on the employment market. This tendency might be observed in the production results of the industries focused on domestic market. As a result, the growth of retail sale in Q4 2010 amounted to 10%, the growth of private consumption reached circa 4% YOY. In 2010 the individual consumption grew of 3.2%. • It resulted in economic growth amounting to 3.8% in 2010 and to 4.5% in Q4 2010 (+4.2% in Q3). Data by Central Statistical Office
Macroeconomic Forecast for 2011 Main Trends: Forecast for Poland: • The growth in Euro zone will continue despite the termination of stimulating programmes, the implementation of saving programmes and the fiscal problems of the suburban countries of the zone. We are still not expecting double-dip recession. According to the European Commission the economic growth in Euro zone will reach 1.8%. • The pace of growth in the case of German economy, so crucial for Poland, will slow down from 3.6% in 2010 to 2.3%-2.6% in 2011. However, it will be much faster than in the case of other Euro zone countries and the growth of the German economy will be supported by growing expenditure of the consumers. It is the effect of unemployment decrease. • Germans will still increase the level of production and export due to high indices of the current German economic situation and its perspectives (ZEW, IFO, PMI). The dynamics of new production orders remains at the level of 20%. • It will enable Poland to keep descent export dynamics and to maintain high dynamics of industrial production during the whole year. It is estimated that the average pace of growth in the case of the industrial production will amount to 9% in the first half of the year and to 8% in the second half of the year. PMI index reached 56.3 points in January and is at the highest level since the day Poland joined EU. The number of domestic and foreign orders is still growing. • However, import will grow faster than export, which will result in negative contribution of the foreign trade to the growth of GDP. • The growth of production will lead to further improvement on the employment market (permanent growth of employment and slightly higher than in 2010 nominal growth of salaries) and to further growth of real payroll.As a result, the dynamics of retail sale will accelerate from 6% in 2010 to 7.5% in 2011. Private consumption and private investment will constitute the main pillars of the economic growth in 2011. • Growth of industrial production: 8.5% • Growth of export: +11.0% • Net export contribution to GDP: -1 pp • Growth of employment in enterprises: +150 000 people • Unemployment at the end of the year: 10.5% • Nominal growth of salaries: +4.5% • Nominal growth of retail sale: +7.5% • Growth of private consumption: +3.5% • GDP growth: +4.2% • Investment growth: +11.0% • GDP growth in 2011 will remain at the level similar to the one from the second half of 2010 and it will correspond with the nominal pace of the economic growth. • Consolidation of the public finance will not decrease the pace of the economic growth in 2011 as it will not be implemented yet..
Press Conference January 2010 Polish Leasing Association demands amendments in the economic law, which will result in: • ►Access to inexpensive financing solutions for entrepreneurs and consumers: • Governmental draft amendment to the acts on taxes regarding consumer leasing was submitted to the Polish Parliament. The Parliamentary “Friendly State” Commission finished the works on the draft. It is expected that the Act will enter into force on 1st July 2011. • Marketing research proves that over 60% consumers declares willingness to take advantage of leasing. ►Enabling retrieving funds frozen in real estate, also in PPP formula • Present situation: • Polish Leasing Association presented to the Minister of Infrastructure the idea concerning the introduction of law amendments which would enable Lease Sale and Lease Back in order to retrieve the funds frozen in municipal real estate. • Centrum PPP, which was established also by Polish Leasing Association, is trying to find the way how the public entity may contribute to PPP project elaboration in particular areas of public activity. Source: Polish Leasing Association
► Improved efficacy of EU funds use by the councils Present situation: The possibility to refund the leasing acquisition price was included in all the biggest domestic programmes and 6 RPO. ► They will stimulate the market of real estate leasing: - by cutting the duration of the contract on real estate leasing to 5 years - by enabling the leasing of perpetual usufruct ► They will improve the protection of entrepreneurs who cannot continue leasing contract due to financial problems: - possibility to assign the liabilities to other entity - possibility to lease the subject of the cancelled lease contract signed by other entity Present situation: The Ministry of Finance expressed positive opinion on the proposed solutions Source: Polish Leasing Association
► They will encourage entrepreneurs to invest by decreasing the costs connected to the usage of company cars. • ► They will improve safety on the roads as well as environmental protection. • Present situation: • Polish Leasing Association together with Polish Automotive Industry Association, Polish Chamber of Automotive Industry and Car Dealer Association prepared the report entitled “Automotive Industry in the Global Crisis. Proposed Solutions”. The report presents four key issues: full VAT deduction in the case of company cars, introduction of environmental tax, introduction of consumer leasing to the market and improved functioning ofvehicle inspection stations. • Polish Leasing Association became the partner of Przyjazna Motoryzacja Programme. • The Programme aims at drawing the attention of the representatives of public and parliamentary administration, the representatives of the voluntary and professional organisations to the significance of motorisation in the fields of economy, ecology and safety. Source: Polish Leasing Association
Związek Polskiego Leasingu (Polish Leasing Association) ul. Rejtana 17, Warszawa tel.: (22) 542 41 36 fax: (22) 542 41 37 e-mail: zpl@leasing.org.pl www.leasing.org.pl