African and south african economic history

1. African and south african economic history IPSU • 2011 Johan Fourie

2. Geography and luck IPSU • 2011 Johan Fourie

3. Die origin of man • Anatomically modern humans migrated out of Africa between 100 000 and 50 000 years ago – the so-called “Out of Africa” hypothesis • There were already groups of proto-humans (that moved out of Africa about 2.5 million years ago, Homo Erectus) in the rest of the wolrd (like the Neanderthals in Europe), but they were probably completely replaced by Homo Sapiens • All people are thus biologically almost identical – biology is thus not the reason why some are rich and others poor

4. Out of Africa Source: Wikipedia 2011

5. Hunters • For 99% of our history, we were hunter-gatherers • Nomadic lifestyle • Exploit natural resources with limited impact on the environment; simple technology; low population density • Until about 10000 BCE…

6. Guns, germs and steel • History followed different routes because of geographical differences, not biological • Ultimate causes: animal and plant domestication and the geography of continents

7. The origin of agriculture Source: Wikipedia 2011

8. Die first settlers • The agricultural revolution occurred because of dramatic changes in the environment (climate) • Some plants and animals were domesticated (as apposed to ‘tame’) • People were thus not forced to search for food, but could settle close to a permanent supply of energy • They were thus the first settlers

9. Domestication

10. Plants and animals

11. The Neolithic Revolution • Agriculture » settled homes » higher population density » surplus production » specialisation • Specialisation » soldiers, artists, magicians… and kings • Surplus » something to steal • NR results in economic development (in the long-run) but also inequality

12. The consequences of the NR • The equality of the hunter-gatherer disappeared • Aside from the new threat to security, the new towns required a new way of social organising – a gap between those that work and those that manage • In short: hierarchies of wealth, status and power are characteristic of the new societies

13. The consequences of the NR • In the early agricultural villages of 10,000 years ago, the seeds of our own way of life were sown: economic specialization, the possibility of private as opposed to or complementary to communal life; the opportunity to accumulate wealth in material objects; the opportunity to accumulate new techniques and tools and knowledge

14. Development in the long-run • Societies adapt to changing environments • Some adapt better than others (Jared Diamond) • After the fall of the Roman empire in 476 CE, Europe in turmoil • Progress in the East • Especially in China, 700 CE – 1400 CE

15. Questions from the session? • Answer a 12 year-old African kid in Zambia, who asks you why white people are rich and black people poor. • Some societies adapt better to changing environments. What lessons can we learn from these trends for the future?

16. AFRIcA IPSU • 2011 Johan Fourie

18. Africa • How well do you know your continent? • How many countries • How many people • Jared Diamond: • How Africa Became Black

19. Africa: Where did it all begin? • Cradle of mankind – South Africa, Kenya? • First wave moving out of Africa • Second wave replacing first wave • Within Africa, the diversity was/is immense

20. What we do know • Five major human groups • Blacks, whites, African Pygmies, Khoisan and Asians • Of course, unlike European history, Africa has little written history • Use of language can tell us much about Africa’s past

21. The migration of the Banto • The Niger-Congo language family is distributed all over West Africa and most of subequatorial Africa • How do we know where it started? • English example • Same line of reasoning suggests a significant migration of the Banto from Cameroon to the south

22. The Bantu migration • Since 1500 BCE Bantu settlers migrated east and south from modern day Cameroon and Nigeria • Better technology compared to existing inhabitants (Khoi and San) • Conflict or amalgamation?

23. Why? What was the Banto’s advantage? • All of the domesticated plants in Africa stem from north of the equator – coffee, yams, sorghum, oil palm and kola nut • Sole animal that was domesticated is the guinea fowl – all others came from Middle East/Asia through trade • Khoisan and Pygmies was thus at disadvantage

24. The Bantu migration • By 300 CE they reach South Africa, spread over the entire country (except the Western- and Northern Cape) • Why not there? • Farmers but also cattle herders, especially in the dryer parts • Metal working possible – bronze tools – better technology than the Khoisan (who used stone tools)

25. Great Zimbabwe and Monomotapa • Great Zimbabwe 1100-1450 CE • Monomotapa (1430-1760)

26. Pre-European civilizations

27. Mfecane • Mass migration of tribes in the North, East and Central South Africa • As a consequence of Shaka’s wars, who build the Zulu’s into a powerful tribe through military, social, cultural and political reforms • Reduce the power of witchdoctors • The iklwa – a spear, ‘bullhorn’-technique

28. Europeans in Africa • Shaka’s success – and the change that it brought – meant that large parts of the country were left vacant • Into this ‘emptiness’ after the Mfecane, a group of settlers arrived in the 1830s, claiming the land for themselves • The Great Trek • But first, where did these settlers come from?

29. slavery in africa IPSU • 2011 Johan Fourie

30. Ethnic diversity

31. Hard facts • Four trade routes • Trans-Atlantic • Indian Ocean • Trans-Saharan • Red Sea

32. Correlation

33. Instrument

34. Regression • Two regressions • First explains the instrument • Second uses instrument to test hypothesis • The stars indicate significance • Thus: causality proved!

35. Conclusions?

36. Institutions IPSU • 2011 Johan Fourie

37. AJR • African underdevelopment is due to historical institutions • But how to measure historical institutions? • Instrumental variable – settler mortality!

38. Mortality • Settler mortality determined the type of institutions that were imposed by the European settlers • These institutions would later result in lower growth

39. COLONISATION IPSU • 2011 Johan Fourie

40. Diverse experiences • Case study: Congo • 10 million murdered or more from 1885 to 1908 when Belgium took it over as a colony. • has been virtually ignored in books on genocide. • Yet, this genocide far surpassed in human corpses most every gemocide in the 20th Century except that by Stalin, Mao, and Hitler. • But…

41. Jomo Kenyatta • We do not forget the assistance and guidance we have received through the years from people of British stock: administrators, businessmen, farmers, missionaries and many others. Our law, our system of government and many other aspects of our daily lives are founded on British principles and justice

42. Discussion questions • Its clear that atrocities have been committed in Africa in the name of development • If any, what were the benefits from colonisation? • If you could retell history, how would you change the European “invasion” of Africa?

43. settlers in south africa IPSU • 2011 Johan Fourie

44. Die VOC • 1602-1800 • Goal: to undertake trade voyages to the East • Spices • 4785 ships, nearly one million employees

45. An extremely brief overview of my PhD • The nature of wealth • Size, growth and structure of wealth in the CC • Material culture and standards of living • Specialisation and diversification of production • A measure of income (GDP) • The causes of wealth • Supply: French Huguenots • Demand: Ships • The distribution of wealth • Wealth inequality • Income inequality

46. The Cape Colony • Brief history of settlement • European settlement in 1652 by VOC • First 9 Company officials released to become independent farmers in 1657 • In 1688, roughly 150 French settlers (Huguenots) arrive • After 1700, immigration discouraged • Slow expansion until 795 British rule

47. The Cape Colony • Characteristics of Cape economy • Three views • Earlier historians (De Kiewiet, De Kock, Theal):“Cape was an economic and social backwater” • Recent historians (Guelke, Giliomee, Shell, Feinstein):Cape was poor, but with pockets of wealth • Economists (Van Duin and Ross, Brunt): Cape was growing faster than previously thought based on quantitative evidence – though their evidence doesn’t support their case • Cape was based on slave labour (1658) • Three groups: Officials and wealthy elite farmers, middle-income farmers and traders in Cape Town, poor, mostly frontier farmers • VOC institutions/policies: monopsonist buying, prohibition on trade and manufacture

48. Institutions and colonial societies • ‘Institutions’ matter • Capital accumulation, quantity and quality of labour and innovation and technology are merely the embodiments, or proximate causes, of growth and are themselves influenced by institutions • Colonial societies are the setting for three important contributions: • Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2001,2002) • Engerman and Sokoloff (2000, 2002, 2005) • La Porta, Lopez de Silanes and Shleifer (2008)

49. Institutions and colonial societies • What institutions? • Extractive versus settler (AJR) • Tropical versus temperate (ES) • Legal origin (LLS) • First two theories assume settlers are homogenous • LLS – only difference is legal origin • Surely settlers are not all similar? • Modern trade theory and literature on migration • Can we show this using evidence from the Dutch Cape Colony?

50. Research question • We compare wine and wheat production of the Huguenots and the other settlers • If different, skills acquired in their country of origin may explain these differences • But maybe it’s not skills. Maybe it’s because they received more land? Or capital or labour? Or technology? • Maybe it’s language, or legal origin, or simply, French institutions • Or maybe it’s other forms of human capital (literacy) • We then split the sample into French from wine-producing regions and French from non-wine producing regions • I.e. thus removing all claims of institutional, religious and cultural differences