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ESMF @ NCEP Mark Iredell Chief NCEP/EMC Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch May 23, 2006

ESMF @ NCEP Mark Iredell Chief NCEP/EMC Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch May 23, 2006. NCEP: “where America’s climate, weather, and ocean services begin”. Outline. Motivation Vision Progress Issues Conclusion. Motivation. Why ESMF @ NCEP?.

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ESMF @ NCEP Mark Iredell Chief NCEP/EMC Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch May 23, 2006

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  1. ESMF @ NCEPMark IredellChiefNCEP/EMC Global Climate and Weather Modeling BranchMay 23, 2006 NCEP: “where America’s climate, weather, and ocean services begin”

  2. Outline • Motivation • Vision • Progress • Issues • Conclusion

  3. Motivation

  4. Why ESMF @ NCEP? • Most of the improvement in weather forecast skill over the past 20 years is due to improving numerical forecast system technology. • However, national investment in computing and model development in the geophysical sciences is limited and dispersed. • Therefore, it behooves us to leverage this investment with a common modeling framework and shared software development.

  5. Impact of Observations and Numerical Forecast System Technology Growth on Global Forecasts NFS Tech Growth + Obs Obs only NFS Tech Growth: Computing Data Assim. Models Ensembles

  6. Why ESMF @ NCEP? • Most of the improvement in weather forecast skill over the past 20 years is due to improving numerical forecast system technology. • However, national investment in computing and model development in the geophysical sciences is limited and dispersed. • Therefore, it behooves us to leverage this investment with a common modeling framework and shared software development.

  7. Vision* *my vision anyway, not necessarily everyone’s

  8. ESMF Component Framework

  9. I/O components ATM gridded component GFS physics component NAM physics component GMAO physics component GFS dynamics component UMO dynamics component Finite volume dynamics component Post component Surface cycling component Coupler components Land component Ocean component Ice component Aerosol component Ionosphere component Mesoscale component Hurricane components GSI 3DVAR component Radiative Transfer component Change resolution coupler component Dynamics/Physics coupler component Ensemble coupler component Atmosphere/Land coupler component Atmosphere/Ice/Ocean coupler component Atmosphere/Aerosol coupler component Atmosphere/Ionosphere coupler component Analysis/Model coupler component Model/Post coupler component Other couplers NCEP component list (incomplete*) *only includes components with active ESMF plans

  10. Progress

  11. Progress with ESMF @ NCEP • The NCEP global forecast system (GFS) with a fully compliant ESMF adoption should be implemented operationally in June 2006. (Yang, Moorthi, Young) • Features • Stand-alone gridded component • Uses clock, config, logerr • No effect on results or timings

  12. Progress with ESMF @ NCEP • The GFS already runs successfully in ensemble mode (14 members run concurrently). A stochastic ensemble coupler is being developed. (Yang, Hou) • Promising progress toward making GFS a gridded rather than spectral component. (Juang) • The B-grid global model (UMO) is near to being ready as a gridded component. (Black) • Several other collaborations already support ESMF gridded components.

  13. Issues

  14. Costs/Benefits of ESMF @ NCEP • + Community involvement and lovefests • + Common framework for collaboration • + Shared software burden • - Significant conversion effort • - Increased code complexity • - More black boxes

  15. Costs/Benefits of ESMF @ NCEP • Ultimately, the key resources for NCEP (and other institutions) are its working scientists. We must ensure that any framework decisions are the best for our people to continue to develop and maintain world-class geophysical models. • ESMF allows each institution to find its comfort level in adopting the framework.

  16. Conclusion NCEP continues to participate as a partner in the EMSF experience

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