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Prediction of Landslide Runout

Prediction of Landslide Runout. DAN-W (Pseudo-3D) DAN3D (Hungr, 1995) McDougall and Hungr, 2004). Dynamic models:. Rheologies :. Frictional: . or:. Where Φ b is the “Bulk Friction Angle (modified by pore-pressure. Voellmy :. Calibration: Back-analyse the 1903 event

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Prediction of Landslide Runout

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  1. Prediction of Landslide Runout

  2. DAN-W (Pseudo-3D) DAN3D (Hungr, 1995) McDougall and Hungr, 2004) Dynamic models:

  3. Rheologies: Frictional: or: Where Φb is the “Bulk Friction Angle (modified by pore-pressure Voellmy:

  4. Calibration: Back-analyse the 1903 event Look at smaller rock avalanches in the Canadian Rockies.

  5. 1903 landslide

  6. Voellmy, f=0.1 ξ=500 m/s2

  7. Jonas Creek landslides (Bruce, 1978) Maximum runout for the south slide (approx. 4 million m3) f=0.15, ξ=500 m/s2

  8. Summary of runout predictions 6.7 million m3 Slide A from the South Peak. Red: Most Likely Purple: Alternative Yellow: Extreme RunoutTurqoise: Piecemeal Detachment

  9. Summary of runout predictions 13.8 million m3 Slide B from the South Peak. Red: Most Likely Purple: Alternative Yellow: Extreme RunoutTurqoise: Piecemeal Detachment

  10. Bulk friction angle vs. volume-small rock avalanches

  11. Envelope of Hazard Areas for 12 potential rock avalanches from the South Peak and Third Peak of Turtle Mountain. Full line: 3D analyses. Dotted line: 2D analyses.

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