Outline

1. The Climate Information & Prediction Services (CLIPS) Project (of WMO) – The Tool Box concept A. MokssitDirector Met Service MoroccoChair of OPAG3 (CLIPS)IPCC WG1 vice chair

2. Outline Introduction-Generalities-Examples of succes stories GFCS Objectives CLIPS project: the status Moroccan experience with CLIPS From CLIPS to GFCS: CLIPS ToolBox Conclusion

3. فيضانات مترددة تطوان 2000 اوريكا 2005 مرزوكا 2006 المحمدية 2002 الرباط 2009 1 دار الدريوش 2008

4. Some succes stories Dam managmnt Forest plainting Agricultural campagne Extreme event Flood (Ourika 95=300 deaths, Ourika 2OO7= 1 deaths but same infrastructure damage Build user confidence

5. Climate Services • The term “climate services” refers to the delivery of climate information and predictions from the scientific sources to end-users • A service is a service only when it is used; our goal is to make people use climate services in real-world context • Climate information is just one of the elements in the decision making matrix • Databases of information gathered over many years; NMHSs have great potential to exploit these resources to provide “effective” climate services • Predictions of climate variability over the next season (or seasonal to interannual forecasts) are of immediate relevance of the ability of users to act on the basis of climate information

6. Forecast Uncertainty Forecast Lead Time Applications Climate Change. Climate Prediction Framework Centuries Scenarios Decades Anthropogenic Forcing Climate Variability Years Outlook Prediction Seasons Guidance Months Boundary Conditions Threats Assessments 2 Weeks Weather 1 Week Forecasts Initial Conditions Days Watches Hours Warnings & Alert Coordination Adapted from: NOAA Minutes Energy Health State/Local Planning Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Space Applications Hydropower Protection of Life & Property Environment Fire Weather Agriculture Water Management Water Resource Planning Transportation

7. Global Framework Climate Services Objective The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and its partner organizations co-sponsoring WCC-3 propose the establishment of a new Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to: • “enable climate adaptation and climate risk management through the incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into policy and practice at all levels.” • GFCS will have four major components: • Observation and Monitoring; • Research and Modeling; • a Climate Services Information System; and • a Climate Services Application Programme.

8. CLIPS project: the status

9. Since 1999 Congress-XIII (1999) agreed to the following four slightly refined objectives for the continuing implementation of the CLIPS project, which are still valid: (a) To demonstrate the value and eventual socio-economic benefits of climate information and prediction services; (b) To provide an international framework to enhance and promote climate information and prediction, including the establishment of criteria to measure forecast quality and to permit model intercomparison; (c) To encourage the development of operational climate prediction; (d) To facilitate the definition, the development and the strengthening of a global network of regional/national climate centres

10. CLIPS (1/2) • The CLIPS project builds on: • The past decades of successful atmospheric and oceanographic research (e.g., Climate/ENSO predictability; Coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling, …); • Improved climate monitoring (e.g., TAO buoys) and data management capabilities; • A developing capability to predict climate on monthly, seasonal and interannual time scales, and regional space scales; • Effective networking of climate providers as well as users, and the development of consensus approach to climate outlooks (RCOFs, El Niño/La Niña update);

11. CLIPS (2/2) • Mechanisms to provide climate services involving global (GPCs: Global Producing Centres) and regional climate centres (e.g., DMCs, ACMAD, CIIFEN, RCCs), as well as the NMHSs; • Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) • Training of experts from NMHSs (CLIPS National Focal Points) and end-users (RCOFs, CLIPS Curriculum).

12. CLIPS Infrastructure and Forecasting • Access to Global Producing Centres; • Regional Climate Centres; • Examination of forecast presentation methods; • Best practices; • Downscaling and Regional Climate Models; • Development of Regional Climate Outlook Forums; • Joint activities with research programmes such as WCRP to bring in state-of-art science into climate services.

13. CLIPSApplications • Coordination of demonstration and pilot projects; • Involvement of Focal Points in demonstration and pilot projects; • Partnership with application sectors at national, regional and global levels • Examination of improved project design; • Examination of impacts of climate services on applications; • Examination of data requirements.

14. Capacity Building • Establish and network CLIPS Focal Points • A global network of climate scientists/service providers specially trained in climate science, statistical modelling and prediction, applications and project management. • These CLIPS Focal Points ensure national and regional coordination of climate information and prediction products. • Reporting of CLIPS activities by CLIPS Focal Points, and sharing the experiences through WMO. • Development of CLIPS Training Curriculum • Regional/sub-regional CLIPS Training Workshops • User-awareness development through workshops, projects and Climate Outlook Forums

15. The CLIPS Curriculum is structured into 5 groups, which, all in all, brings together more than 70 individual modules/presentations as of 2009: Background and Science Climate and Climatology Forecast, Models and Verfications Tools Applications (cf. http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/modules/clips_modules.html) Short evaluation: The CLIPS Curriculum evolution experienced an enthusiastic start. Within a relatively short period during 1999 to 2001, many high-quality modules were provided by well-known specialists. It turned out, however, that further expanding and updating the modules and developing them into standard training modules and courses have been a challenge. Currently, conceptual considerations are under way to update the Curriculum considering support to climate change adaptation and climate risk management as priorities and to ensure its sustainability.

16. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) • A component of CLIPS • First established in 1996: Meeting in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe. • Regional mechanism for the formulation and dissemination of climate forecasts and outlooks • Bring together providers of and users of SIPs. • RCOFs, initiated just prior to the major 1997–1998 El Niño event, constitute an important vehicle in developing regions for providing advance information on the likely climate features of the upcoming season, and for developing a consensus product from amongst the multiple available individual predictions. • RCOFs stimulate the development of climate capacity in the NMHSs of the area, and do much to generate decisions and activities that mitigate adverse impacts of climate and help communities adapt to climate variability.

17. CLIPS - RCOFs • Regular Forums in some regions where NMHSs meet to develop regional consensus on SIPs. • Several forums held throughout the world, notably in Africa, South America, Central America, Pacific Islands and Asia.

18. Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF)

19. Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) SARCOF is a regional climate outlook prediction and application process adopted by the fourteen countries comprising the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Member States: Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe in conjunction with other partners. SARCOF is coordinated by the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre (SADC-DMC), Gaborone, Botswana. The latest SARCOF statement as well as previous statements are available at:SARCOF Statements

20. RCOF for West Africa (PRESAO : PRÉvisions Saisonnières en Afrique de l'Ouest) PRESAO, a Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF) activity dedicated to West Africa, is coordinated by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD), Niamey, Niger. The latest PRESAO statement as well as previous statements and other related climate outlook products are available at: PRESAO statements

21. FOCRAII : Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Regional Association II (Asia) FOCRAII covers all the countries in Asia, most of them part of the WMO Regional Association II. Beijing Climate Center (BCC) of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has been coordinating FOCRAII activities. The latest seasonal outlook produced by FOCRAII and other related information is available at: FOCRAII Statement

22. Western Coast of South America Climate Outlook Forum (WCSACOF) WCSACOF is coordinated by Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno de El Niño (CIIFEN, International Research Centre on El Niño), Guayaquil, Ecuador. The countries participating in this RCOF are: Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Perú and Venezuela. The latest seasonal outlook produced by WCSACOF, other forecast products of CIIFEN for the region and related information, in Spanish, is available at: WCSACOF Statements

23. Southeast of South America Climate Outlook Forum (SSACOF) The countries participating in this SSACOF are: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. The RCOF is coordinated by each of the participant countries by rotation, and the latest seasonal outlook and related products may be obtained from the web sites of the respectiveNMHSs: Argentina: http://www.smn.gov.ar/ Brazil: http://www.inmet.gov.br/ Paraguay: http://www.meteorologia.gov.py/ Uruguay: http://www.meteorologia.com.uy/

24. The Pacific Islands: The Island Climate Update The Island Climate Update (ICU) is a multi-national and multi-organisational monthly climate bulletin with a primary goal of assisting Pacific Island Countries (PICs) in making informed planning and management decisions relating to climate sensitive sectors through the provision of timely and accurate seasonal climate forecasts. It is published monthly both in print and online by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) in New Zealand and is funded by the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID). The participating countries/islands are: American Samoa, Australia, Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, Kiribati, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Pitcairn Island, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna. The latest ICU is available at: http://www.niwascience.co.nz/ncc/icu/

25. Pacific Islands online Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF) PICOF is coordinated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology as part of the Pacific Islands - Climate Prediction Project (PI-CPP) funded by the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID). The countries participating in this monthly forum are: Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. Participants use a statistical-based model developed under the Project, called SCOPIC, to run the seasonal climate outlooks for the upcoming three-month period. The latest PICOF summary and individual country seasonal climate forecasts are available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/pi-cpp/clim_forecasts.shtml PI-CPP link:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/pi-cpp/

26. Climate Outlook Forum for Central America The Climate Forum of Central America reviews and discusses the oceanic and atmospheric conditions latest forecasts of global models and their implications in the patterns of rainfall and temperature in Central America, as well as national-level analysis provided by each of Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the Region and develops a consensus seasonal climate outlook. The countries participating in this forum are: Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panamá. The latest climate outlook for this region is available at: http://www.aguayclima.com/clima/inicio.htm

27. Southeastern Europe Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF) The Southeastern Europe Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF) is the very first regional climate outlook forum in Europe. The inaugural session of SEECOF was held in Zagreb, Croatia, during 11-12 June 2008. The countries participating in SEECOF are: Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Albania, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria, Rumania, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Further details on SEECOF are available at: http://meteo.hr/SEECOF08/

28. Climate Outlook for Cricket in the Caribbean: The Outfield There is no doubt as to how influential the rain can be in cricket. We just need to look back at the past cricket series around the world to find several tests and one-day games simply ‘washed out’ due to rain. "The Outfield" is an innovative product of the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), dedicated to weather and climate information relevant to the game of cricket, including outlooks for the upcoming cricket events in the Caribbean. The latest issue as well as the previous issues of "The Outfield" are available at: http://www.cimh.edu.bb/

29. RCOFs are in operation in many parts of the world, mainly serving developing countries: - CCOF Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum - FCCA Foro Regional del Clima de América Central FOCRAII Forum On regional Climate monitoring, assessment and prediction for Regional Association II (Asia) - GHACOF Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum - PICOF Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum - PRESAC Prévision Saisonnière en Afrique Centrale - PRESAO Prévision Saisonnière en Afrique de l’Ouest - SARCOF Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum - SEECOF SouthEastern Europe Climate Outlook Forum - SSACOF Southeast of South America Climate Outlook Forum - WCSACOF Western Coast of South America Climate Outlook Forum In some of the regions, RCOF products have been expanded from rainfall and temperature outlooks in the early years to river discharge, food security and malaria outlooks.

30. Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) • RCCs will be Centres of Excellence, designated by CBS and CCl, to perform regional-scale climate functions, including: • Operational LRF and Climate Monitoring • Coordination between RCCs, GPCs and NMHSs in the region • Data services • Climate Applications • Training and capacity building • Research and Development • RCCs will be complementary to and supportive of NMHSs, who will deliver all Warnings and national-scale products • Establishment of RCCs will be initiated by Regional Associations, based on regional needs and priorities • RAs will ensure guidance for and coordination between RCCs

31. ET 3.1 worked on the development of a guidance document on best practices in downscaling, the preliminary draft of which is available. The focus of the guidance document is seasonal prediction, although the concepts are also relevant to downscaling of climate change scenariosConsidering that downscaling is a crucial activity for both domains whatever the method used (statistical, dynamical or hybrid), • ET 3.1developed a draft statement on the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME approach). • ET 3.1 has developed a guidance document on consensus methods for seasonal forecasts. The relevant aspects of the RCOF Review 2008 outcomes have also been integrated into this document.

32. Expert Team on Research Needs for Intraseasonal, Seasonal and Interannual Prediction, including the Applications of these Predictions) • ET 3.1 with the involvement of ET 3.2 developed a new design for RCOF operations for Western Africa in collaboration with ACMAD, IRI and Météo-France. This has been endorsed by PRESAO-12. • ET 3.1 noted that decadal prediction will fill the gap between seasonal prediction and climate change: Seasonal to interannual prediction may be considered as the first step to implement adaptation to climate change.

33. ET 3.1 has actively contributed to: • capacity building in CLIPS training activities, and also in • facilitating the use of Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) developed by the IRI. • The ET agreed that CPT is a very useful and practical tool for operational seasonal prediction, and that a critical review along with other similar packages can help in its wider usage. • The ET has worked towards creating a resource base for sustained CPT training and development.

34. The IRI Climate Predictability Tool: Example of Calibrating (“Correcting”) the Precipitation Forecast of an AGCM

35. Procedure to access to CPT: • Downloading CPT from the IRI Web Site • Go to the IRI’s home page: http://iri.columbia.edu/ • Click on “Outreach Education” • Click on “Climate Predictability Tool” • Click where it says: download the self-installation file (size: ~5.0MB) • Note that you need more than 5 megabytes of storage, and preferably at least five times this much because some of the data sets may be large.

36. CLIPS Operations, Verification and User Liaison • A draft updated version of Technical Note 145, with a revised title of “Socio-economic Benefits of Climate Services”was compiled by ET 3.2 consisting of a collection of sector-specific papers written by a wide range of experts. • The papers were edited by Dr Mickey Glantz, and the final version is being processed for publication as a technical document.

37. - ET 3.2 developed a Draft guidance on best practices for verification of seasonal forecasts to complement CBS guidelines on standardized verification systems (SVS). - The draft has been peer reviewed, and the revised final draft is under preparation.

38. ACMAD and IRI have prepared a comprehensive verification of RCOF products in Africa. It was also presented at the recent RCOF Review held in 2008. • ET 3.2 played a key role in this verification project, and recommends that training materials on verification be developed based on these new documents. - The RCOFs concept is being extended to northern latitudes, and was discussed with a broad audience at the recent Polar CLIPS workshop in St. Petersburg, Russian Federation. - The concept of a Polar Climate Outlook Forum (PCOF) has received considerable encouragement, and is recognized as a WMO contribution to the IPY Legacy.

39. El Niño and La Niña • WMO has been successfully issuing consensus-based El Niño/La Niña Updates, which are well-received worldwide. • ET 3.3 actively participated in the development of these El Niño/La Niña updates, and also provided guidance on their structure and development process. • ET 3.3 discussed the development of an Atlas on impacts of El Niño/La Niña, and developed an outline and some demonstrative examples. • The ET recommends that the initial version of the atlas may be in the form of web-based products, which can gradually pave the way for a stable hard copy version. Through informal consultations,

40. Moroccan experience with CLIPS Utilization of CLIPS Tool Box: LRF concept, verification and operation is tailored coherence with guidelines of ET 1, ET2 activities . User liason is inspired from the RCOF concept (to be compared with the guidlines of user-liason) As a corelation is istablished between El Nino pattern and late rainy season a Close monitoring of El Nino conditions is performed

42. Seasonal forecasts Climate monitoring Climate research and applications Drought monitoring and early warning of drought Climate change Moroccan Experience .... and CLIPS E N D - U S E R S D E V E L O P P E M E N T

43. Implementation of a seasonal forecast system Seasonal forecast of two meteorological parameters : precipitation and temperature In order to : Help decision makers to plan economic activities in advance, Reduce the harmful effects of droughts, Manage water resources and agricultural activities…

44. Implementation of a seasonal forecast system Prospecting different ways: statistical, dynamical, statistico-dynamical Evaluation of the relationship between Moroccan precipitation and large scale fields (SST, NAO, NHTP, ENSO, …..) Installation, adaptation and evaluation of Climate model Bulletins for seasonal forecasts

45. Evaluating the link between Moroccan climate and large scale fields Relationship betwwen NAO and Moroccan precipitation: winter season

46. Evaluating the link between Moroccan climate and large scale fields Correlation between SST and Moroccan precipitation.

47. Different types of forecasts: • - Ensemble forecasts (9 to 18 members) • Deterministic forecasts: anomalies, by classes (terciles, quintiles, …) • Probabilistic forecasts (in the near future with the new computer) • Methods of evaluation: • - Evaluation comparing predicted classes to observed ones • - Evaluation comparing observed and predicted anomalies (CCA, …)

48. Elaboration process of seasonal forecast Raw outputs Elaboration of the bulletin Dynamical model Post processing Statistical adaptaion Initial conditions Boundary conditions

49. ARPEGE-Climate model (French model) • Atmosoheric General Circulation Model • Dynamical model • Regular grid 300km • Operational since 98 : version 1, version 2, version 3,version 4 • Currently ARPEGE-climat is turned each month in version 3(forced mode) • and version 4 (coupled mode)operational since 01/2010

50. OPA8.2 Ocean general circulation model (ORCA2) ARPEGE-climat Atmospheric general circulation model (Météo-Franca model) Coupled model ORCA2 - ARPEGE-climat Version 4 of ARPEGE-climat in coupled mode Oceanic forcing Atmospheric forcing Atmospheric Initial conditions Issued from ECMWF analysis Initial oceanic conditions issued from MERCATOR-OCEAN