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Simon Miller

Key Environmental Challenges: Inconvenient truths & convenient solutions. Simon Miller. Earth’s ecosystems provide goods & services worth $33 trillion per year – for free!. About twice the value of global GNP (which is just $18 trillion). Source: Costanza et al (1997).

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Simon Miller

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  1. Key Environmental Challenges: Inconvenient truths & convenient solutions Simon Miller

  2. Earth’s ecosystems provide goods & services worth $33 trillion per year – for free! About twice the value of global GNP (which is just $18 trillion) Source: Costanza et al (1997)

  3. “nearly two thirds of the services provided by nature to human-kind are found to be in decline worldwide” Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 www.millenniumassessment.org

  4. Pre-peak Harvest peak Post-peak Year of Peak Fish Harvest Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea Around Us project

  5. Pre-peak Harvest peak Post-peak Year of Peak Fish Harvest Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea Around Us project

  6. Pre-peak Harvest peak Post-peak Year of Peak Fish Harvest Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea Around Us project

  7. Humanity’s Ecological Footprint 1961 - 2003 SUSTAINABILITY GAP Source: Global Footprint Network / Best Foot Forward

  8. 3.8 1.9 1.2 How much nature do we have? Hectares of bio-productive area per capita (assuming no loss of productivity, incl sea space and allowing for 12% biodiversity) Source: Sharing Nature’s Interest

  9. At the moment, we are using 25% more than the Earth can sustainably provide. Source: Global Footprint Network / Best Foot Forward

  10. Rising to 100% by 2050. Source: Global Footprint Network / Best Foot Forward

  11. Global Use of Resources (1980 - 2002) Source: MOSUS project www.mosus.net

  12. Our rising carbon footprint is of particular concern Source: Marland, G., T.A. Boden, and R. J. Andres. 2003

  13. Change in Temperature, Sea Level & Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover. “11 of the last 12 years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest… since 1850.” Source: IPCC 4th Assessment report (February 2007)

  14. Global Frequency of Climate-related Disasters Source: Brooks & Adger (Ambio, In Press)

  15. We only have one planet Living Planet Index 1970 - 2003 • We only have one planet Source: WWF Living Planet Report 2006

  16. Elimination of most life Ocean methane hydrate release Emissions peak 2015 (400ppm CO2) Probably unavoidable (>350 ppm CO2) Emissions peak 2030 (450ppm CO2) Emissions peak 2050 (550ppm CO2) Emissions peak > 2050 (>650ppm CO2) Climate change by degrees 5° 4° Siberian methane f/b 3° Amazon carbon f/b loop 2° 1° Arctic ice-albedo f/b loop Source: Lynas (2007) Six Degrees : our future on a hotter planet (figures based on 75% certainty)

  17. STOP PRESS: EU agrees to 20% reductions by 2020 possibly increasing to 30% Options for stabilisation (450/550ppm CO2e) “Stabilisation - at whatever level - requires that annual emissions be brought down to the level that balances the Earth’s natural capacity to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. .. This is more than 80% below the absolute level of current annual emissions.” Source: Stern Review 2006

  18. Consumption varies considerably by region Average per capita footprint (gha) Source: Global Footprint Network / Best Foot Forward

  19. The challenge is to reduce the impact of modern urban living...

  20. …from three or four planets to one. A reduction of 70-80% in resource use.

  21. Key questions for business: • What is the scale of the change required by each sector? • Where best to intervene in the supply chain? • How to make change happen?

  22. An Example: • The Transport Sector • Challenges and • Opportunities

  23. Challenge: CO2 per $ spending Household equipment Recreation & culture Restaurants & hotels Food & drink Clothing & footwear Transport Alcohol & tobacco Misc. goods & services Health Communications Education Housing Almost 1,000 tonnes of CO2 for every $m spent on transportation.

  24. Challenge: Whole life cycle issues CO2 emissions from fuel use make up more than 80% of total. Source: Best Foot Forward

  25. Challenge: 130% growth in mobility Trillion (1012) of passenger kilometres per year Source: WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project , Goldman Sachs

  26. Challenge: 130% CO2 increase Gigatonnes (109) CO2 equivalent emissions per year “Transport was the fastest growing sector in OECD countries and the second fastest growing sector in non-OECD countries between 1990 and 2002 (emissions increasing by 25% and 36% respectively).” Source: WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project, Stern Review

  27. Impact – Causative factors Ehrlich Equation Human impact (I) Population (P) Affluence (A) Technology (T) I=P x A x T

  28. Opportunities… • Technology • Modal switch • Demand management

  29. Technology Analysis of 25 ferry routes showed 10x difference in efficiency (CO2 per passenger km) Source: Best Foot Forward

  30. Technology CO2 intensity of car manufacturer’s profits (2002) “Emissions rates for midsized cars vary by 50 percent across automobile manufacturers.” Source: WRI 2003. Note: PSA = Peugeot Citroen, DC = Daimler Chrysler

  31. Modal Switch Comparison of 5 journeys by 3 different modes (kgCO2 per journey - assuming full occupancy) Modal switches can make more than 3x difference in CO2 emissions Source: Best Foot Forward. Note: figures do not account for additional climate impact of air travel (x1.9)

  32. Biofuels Relative energy content of rape crop Source: Best Foot Forward.

  33. Biofuels CO2 emissions per litre fuel; diesel, 5% biodiesel blend, 100% biodiesel plus various options for additional renewables and use of rape straw and seed. 88% CO2 reduction possible Sources: Best Foot Forward, Folkecenter

  34. But is there enough biodiesel? Footprint of biodiesel production in UK would far exceed UK land area

  35. Demand Management • Companies such as HP and Nortel, that have offered teleworking have seen reductions of up to 10% in emissions from commuting. • One lift sharing company in the UK estimates that it saves 6 million car-kilometres/year. • In the UK, 10% of all retail sales are now online (predicted to rise to 40% by 2020) • NOT making a journey reduces its emissions by 100%!

  36. The Good News: interventions are multiplicative

  37. Questions/challenges What CO2 reduction do you think would be ‘fair’ for your business unit? What are the business implications of operating in a more resource-constrained world? Could you reduce supply chain CO2 per unit of output by 80% by 2050? How do you plan to sustainably manage growth? What combination of demand management, technology & efficiency improvements will work best for you? Thinking beyond CO2, what plans do you have to reduce your overall ecological footprint?

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