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FLOOD PROPAGATION UNCERTAINTY

FLOOD PROPAGATION UNCERTAINTY. J. Mulet – F. Alcrudo Area de Mecánica de Fluidos, CPS-Universidad de Zaragoza. BASIC UNCERTAINTY APPROACH. Run models on the three (upper, mid, lower) hydrographs provided in breach analysis Fixed bathymetry (1982) Added comparison with 1998 bathymetry

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FLOOD PROPAGATION UNCERTAINTY

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  1. FLOOD PROPAGATION UNCERTAINTY J. Mulet – F. Alcrudo Area de Mecánica de Fluidos, CPS-Universidad de Zaragoza

  2. BASIC UNCERTAINTY APPROACH • Run models on the three (upper, mid, lower) hydrographs provided in breach analysis • Fixed bathymetry (1982) • Added comparison with 1998 bathymetry • Different models/modellers

  3. UNCERTAINTY SIMULATIONS. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1998 BATHYMETRY REQUESTED RESULTS: - WATER DEPTH HISTORY AT GAUGE/POINTS LOCATIONS - DISCHARGE HYDROGRAPH THROUGH SECTIONS - WATER DEPTH ENVELOPE OF 0.5 m AND 2 m

  4. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES.

  5. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES.

  6. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 1. 1982 MAX - MIN 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (4.77m) EXPERIMENTAL SPIKE LIKE PEAK BETTER REPRODUCED PLATEAU LIKE EMPTYING NOT BIG DIFFERENCES IN WATER SURFACE ELEVATION BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES

  7. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 2. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (2.67m) DIFFERENCES ATTRIBUTABLE TO INTERPOLATION IN STEEP SLOPE AREA GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE OLD CINEMA

  8. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 4. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (0.71m) GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE CONDES DE ORGAZ STREET

  9. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 6. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (1.24m) • DIFFERENCES BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES STRESSED GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE PROYECTO C STREET

  10. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 7. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (~0m) • SPIKE LIKE PEAK BETTER REPRODUCED • SIMILAR WATER ELEVATION FOR BOTH BATHYMETRIES GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE OLD CITY HALL

  11. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 8. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (1.29m) RISE RATES ARE BETTER REPRODUCED WITH THE UPPER HYDROGRAPH GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE CLOCK´S SITE

  12. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 10. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (0.41m) GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE JÚCAR STREET

  13. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 13. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (-1.12m) GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE VALENCIA STREET

  14. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT A. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (-1.17m) IMPORTANT BATHYMETRY EFFECT (EVEN IF DIFFERENCES IN BOTOTM ELEVATION AT GAUGE ARE SMALL) GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE 1 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM

  15. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 1. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY IMPORTANT DISCHARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 2 BATHYMETRIES GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE 1 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM

  16. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT B. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (3.45m) STRONG SCATTERING BETWEEN MODELS/MODELERS GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE AZUD

  17. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 2. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE AZUD

  18. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT C. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (4.4m) GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE 3 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM

  19. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 3. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE 3 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM

  20. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT D. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (1.7m) NEARLY NO DISPERSION AT ALL GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE BEFORE HILL UPSTREAM SUMACÁRCEL

  21. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT E. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (5.9m) NEARLY NO DISPERSION IN WATER ELEVATION BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE RIVER BANK OPPOSITE SUMACÁRCEL

  22. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT F. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (4.1m) NEARLY NO DISPERSION IN WATER ELEVATION BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE DOWNSTREAM SUMACÁRCEL

  23. ADDED RUNS 1982 BATHYMETRY

  24. UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES. UDZ-1 UPPER UDZ-1 LOWER CESI

  25. UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES. CESI UDZ-1 UPPER UDZ-1 LOWER

  26. UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES. UDZ-1 LOWER UDZ-1 UPPER CESI

  27. UNCERTAINTY 2m ISOLINES. UDZ-1 LOWER UDZ-1 UPPER CESI

  28. UNCERTAINTY 2m ISOLINES. UDZ-1 UPPER CEM UPPER CESI

  29. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT A. BETWEEN MODELLERS UDZ-1 NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECT INFLUENCE OF ADDED UNCERTAINTY EFFECTS GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE 1 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM

  30. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 1. BETWEEN MODELLERS UDZ-1 GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE 1 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM

  31. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT B. BETWEEN MODELLERS UDZ-1 EXTRA FRICTION EFFECTS ARE INCREASED DOWNSTREAM GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE AZUD

  32. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 2. 1982 BATHYMETRY 1982-1998 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE AZUD

  33. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT C. BETWEEN MODELLERS UDZ-1 FURTHER INCREASE DOWNSTREAM MAINLY DUE TO THE FRICTION ZONING (NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECT OF BASELINE FRICTION) GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE 3 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM

  34. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 3. BETWEEN MODELLERS UDZ-1 • SAME WATER FLOW RATE FOR BOTH BATHYMETRIES THROUGH SECTION 3 DESPITE THE DIFFERENCE IN WATER LEVEL • SAME PEAK AS IN THE OUTFLOW TOUS DAM HYDROGRAPH GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE 3 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM

  35. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT D. BETWEEN MODELLERS UDZ-1 GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE BEFORE HILL UPSTREAM SUMACÁRCEL

  36. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT E. BETWEEN MODELLERS UDZ-1 GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE RIVER BANK OPPOSITE SUMACÁRCEL

  37. UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT F. BETWEEN MODELLERS UDZ-1 NO FURTHER INCREASE IN THE EFFECT GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE DOWNSTREAM SUMACÁRCEL

  38. CONCLUSIONS (Preliminary) • Uncertainty sources considered (and proved relevant) • Model / Modeler • Bathymetry • Friction levels • Specifically friction distribution/zoning • Baseline friction level not significant • Uncertainty in urban area • Overall 2m (either water depth / water elevation) • Uncertainty in valley • Considerably higher with strong differences • No clear indications as to comparative influence of considered parameters/effects

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