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Takanobu KOSUGI , Toshimasa TOMODA, Keigo AKIMOTO

DNE21 Results for Phases 1 & 2. DNE21 Results for Phases 1 & 2. Expert Meeting on the Assessment of Contributions to Climate Change UK Met Office, UK September 25 - 27, 2002. Expert Meeting on the Assessment of Contributions to Climate Change.

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Takanobu KOSUGI , Toshimasa TOMODA, Keigo AKIMOTO

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  1. DNE21Results for Phases 1 & 2 DNE21Results for Phases 1 & 2 Expert Meeting on the Assessment of Contributions to Climate Change UK Met Office, UK September 25 - 27, 2002 Expert Meeting on the Assessment of Contributions to Climate Change Takanobu KOSUGI, Toshimasa TOMODA, Keigo AKIMOTO Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)

  2. Interrelations in DNE21Model

  3. Outline of the Climate Change Model • Simple climate change model was constructed based on MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change). • Carbon circulation (both oceanic and terrestrial), atmospheric concentrations of other GHGs, their radiative forcings, temperature rises of 4 representative points (north and south hemispheres, ocean and land), sea level changes of north and south hemispheres (energy balance of upwelling stream among one dimensional 40 layers) etc. are calculated. • Cooling effect of SOx aerosol is taken into account.

  4. Calculating Steps in Climate Change Model

  5. Phase 1 Study • Assumptions / Conditions • Historical emissions data: CDIAC database • Future emissions scenario: A2 of the IPCC SRES • Timeframe: 1765 to 2100 • Model parameters: Reference case as specified in “TERMS OF REFERENCE” Cumulative CO2 emissions

  6. Results for Phase 1 CO2 concentration CH4 and N2O concentrations Radiative forcing (relative to 1990) Global-average surface air temperature change

  7. Phase 2 Study • Assumptions / Conditions: • Historical emissions data: CDIAC database • Future emissions scenarios: A2, B1 and A1FI, of the IPCC SRES (For CO2 emissions only. Non-CO2 GHGs emissions are assumed to be zero.) • Emissions start year: 1991 • Emissions end years: 2010, 2050 and 2100 • Countries/regions: OECD90, REF, ASIA and ALM used in the IPCC SRES. • Model parameters: Reference case only (same as Phase 1)

  8. Phase 2: Methodology of Attribution Calculation • Calculate emission effect V(t) (e.g., temperature change) of year t assuming that all the regions emit anthropogenic CO2 according to Scenarios. • Calculate emission effect VR (t) assuming that one of the regions R does not emit anthropogenic CO2 during the period between the emissions start year and an emissions end year. • Contribution of the region R’s emissions for the period is the difference: V(t) – VR (t). NOTE • Minimization of non-linearity error • Avoidance of non-anthropogenic emission effect

  9. Phase 2 results: CO2 Emissions Accumulated in Atmosphere (1) Emissions end year: 2010 • A2 Scenario Attribution (%) in 2100 Emissions end year OECD90 REF ASIA ALM 2010 45 14 26 15 2050 35 11 33 21 2100 28 10 36 26 (2) Emissions end year: 2050 (3) Emissions end year: 2100

  10. Phase 2 results: CO2 Concentration (1) Emissions end year: 2010 • A2 Scenario Attribution (%) in 2100 Emissions end year OECD90 REF ASIA ALM 2010 45 14 26 15 2050 35 11 33 21 2100 28 9 36 27 (2) Emissions end year: 2050 (3) Emissions end year: 2100

  11. Phase 2 results: Radiative Forcing of CO2 (1) Emissions end year: 2010 • A2 Scenario Attribution (%) in 2100 Emissions end year OECD90 REF ASIA ALM 2010 45 14 26 15 2050 35 11 33 21 2100 27 9 37 27 (2) Emissions end year: 2050 (3) Emissions end year: 2100

  12. Phase 2 results: Global-Average Temperature Change (1) Emissions end year: 2010 • A2 Scenario Attribution (%) in 2100 Emissions end year OECD90 REF ASIA ALM 2010 45 14 26 15 2050 35 11 33 21 2100 27 9 37 27 (2) Emissions end year: 2050 (3) Emissions end year: 2100

  13. Phase 2 results: Global-Average Sea Level Rise (1) Emissions end year: 2010 • A2 Scenario Attribution (%) in 2100 Emissions end year OECD90 REF ASIA ALM 2010 45 14 26 15 2050 35 11 33 21 2100 30 9 36 25 (2) Emissions end year: 2050 (3) Emissions end year: 2100

  14. Phase 2 results: CO2 Emissions Accumulated in Atmosphere (1) Emissions end year: 2010 • B1 Scenario Attribution (%) in 2100 Emissions end year OECD90 REF ASIA ALM 2010 44 14 26 16 2050 30 9 31 30 2100 24 9 30 37 (2) Emissions end year: 2050 (3) Emissions end year: 2100

  15. Phase 2 results: CO2 Concentration (1) Emissions end year: 2010 • B1 Scenario Attribution (%) in 2100 Emissions end year OECD90 REF ASIA ALM 2010 44 14 26 16 2050 29 9 31 31 2100 23 8 30 39 (2) Emissions end year: 2050 (3) Emissions end year: 2100

  16. Phase 2 results: Radiative Forcing of CO2 (1) Emissions end year: 2010 • B1 Scenario Attribution (%) in 2100 Emissions end year OECD90 REF ASIA ALM 2010 44 13 26 17 2050 29 9 31 31 2100 23 8 29 40 (2) Emissions end year: 2050 (3) Emissions end year: 2100

  17. Phase 2 results: Global-Average Temperature Change (1) Emissions end year: 2010 • B1 Scenario Attribution (%) in 2100 Emissions end year OECD90 REF ASIA ALM 2010 44 14 26 16 2050 29 9 31 31 2100 23 8 30 39 (2) Emissions end year: 2050 (3) Emissions end year: 2100

  18. Phase 2 results: Global-Average Sea Level Rise (1) Emissions end year: 2010 • B1 Scenario Attribution (%) in 2100 Emissions end year OECD90 REF ASIA ALM 2010 44 14 26 16 2050 30 9 31 30 2100 25 9 30 36 (2) Emissions end year: 2050 (3) Emissions end year: 2100

  19. Phase 2 results: CO2 Emissions Accumulated in Atmosphere (1) Emissions end year: 2010 • A1FI Scenario Attribution (%) in 2100 Emissions end year OECD90 REF ASIA ALM 2010 44 14 26 16 2050 30 9 31 30 2100 24 9 30 37 (2) Emissions end year: 2050 (3) Emissions end year: 2100

  20. Phase 2 results: CO2 Concentration (1) Emissions end year: 2010 • A1FI Scenario Attribution (%) in 2100 Emissions end year OECD90 REF ASIA ALM 2010 45 14 27 14 2050 30 12 39 19 2100 25 10 38 27 (2) Emissions end year: 2050 (3) Emissions end year: 2100

  21. Phase 2 results: Radiative Forcing of CO2 (1) Emissions end year: 2010 • A1FI Scenario Attribution (%) in 2100 Emissions end year OECD90 REF ASIA ALM 2010 45 14 27 14 2050 30 12 39 19 2100 24 10 39 27 (2) Emissions end year: 2050 (3) Emissions end year: 2100

  22. Phase 2 results: Global-Average Temperature Change (1) Emissions end year: 2010 • A1FI Scenario Attribution (%) in 2100 Emissions end year OECD90 REF ASIA ALM 2010 45 14 27 14 2050 30 12 39 19 2100 25 10 38 27 (2) Emissions end year: 2050 (3) Emissions end year: 2100

  23. Phase 2 results: Global-Average Sea Level Rise (1) Emissions end year: 2010 • A1FI Scenario Attribution (%) in 2100 Emissions end year OECD90 REF ASIA ALM 2010 45 14 27 14 2050 31 12 39 18 2100 26 10 39 25 (2) Emissions end year: 2050 (3) Emissions end year: 2100

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