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Canada’s Demographic Destiny Implications for our rapidly changing Labour Market

Canada’s Demographic Destiny Implications for our rapidly changing Labour Market Presented by Michael Adams. CANNEXUS: Canada’s National Career Development Conference Ottawa January 25 th , 2012. What defines us as Canadians and how is this changing?. Demographics. Public opinion.

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Canada’s Demographic Destiny Implications for our rapidly changing Labour Market

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  1. Canada’s Demographic Destiny Implications for our rapidly changing Labour Market Presented by Michael Adams CANNEXUS: Canada’s National Career Development Conference Ottawa January 25th, 2012

  2. What defines us as Canadians and how is this changing? Demographics Public opinion Social values

  3. Population trends

  4. Population is aging, and growth is highest among older Canadians Boomers Source: Environics Analytics

  5. Observed and Projected Population Growth, Canada 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% - 0.5% - 1.0% 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Our native population is barely growing, and without immigration, would begin to decline in 15 years Actual Projected Zero immigration from 2010 Source: Statistics Canada

  6. Observed and Projected Population Growth, Canada 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% - 0.5% - 1.0% 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Immigration levels will mean population will continue to grow, but at a modest pace Actual Projected Immigration 7.5 per 1000 population Medium Projection Zero immigration from 2010 Source: Statistics Canada

  7. One in five Canadians are foreign-born; highest proportion since 1931 Australia 22.2% U.S. 12.5% Source: Statistics Canada

  8. Source of immigrants to Canada has changed dramatically since the 1960s, but is now relatively stable * Includes Afghanistan, Turkey, and Central Asian Republics of former USSR Source: Statistics Canada

  9. Immigrants come from many parts of the worldCanada, 2006 Total Number of Immigrants 15 countries 100,000 or more 82 countries 10,000 or more 150 countries 1,000 or more

  10. Philippines now number one source country, followed closely by China and India China India Philippines United States United Kingdom Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Facts and Figures, 2010

  11. Immigrants now spreading across Canada Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Facts and Figures, 2010

  12. Many temporary residents stay in Canada a number of years The 2006 Census showed 25% of non permanent residents were in Canada five years earlier Foreign workers Foreign students Humanitarian population Other 428 450 484 523 591 661 347 396 467 471 645 Total Temporary Residents (‘000s) Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Facts and Figures, 2010

  13. Percent of Population by Mother Tongue 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 1996 2001 2006 20% of Canadian population has a non-English or non-French mother tongue English French Other Source: Statistics Canada

  14. Nearly one million Canadians have Chinese as their Mother Tongue

  15. And the visible minority population in Canada will more than double by 2031 2006 2031 Total 32,522 (000s) Total 42,078(000s) Growth 2006-2031 Visible Minority Population 143% Non Visible Minority Population 7% Total Population 29% Definition: Visible minority The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour". The visible minority population consists mainly of the following groups: Chinese, South Asian, Black, Arab, West Asian, Filipino, Southeast Asian, Latin American, Japanese and Korean. 2031 % Visible Minority Toronto 63% Vancouver 59% Source: Statistics Canada

  16. Majority disagree that there is too much immigration, despite growing concerns about the economy Agree or disagree: “There is too much immigration in Canada.” 61 58 38 35 Disagree Agree 11 77 80 83 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 97 98 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 Environics Focus Canada 2011

  17. 74 54 36 24 Disagree Agree dk/na 10 1 85 89 93 94 97 98 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11 Strong majority rejects the idea that immigrants “take away” jobs from other Canadians Agree or disagree: “Immigrants take away jobs from other Canadians.” Environics Focus Canada 2011

  18. 72 66 Agree Disagree dk/na 31 23 6 2 93 94 97 99 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11 But two-thirds believe too many immigrants do not adopt Canadian values; also up from mid-decade Agree or disagree: “Too many immigrants are not adopting Canadian values.” Environics Focus Canada 2011

  19. What values are most important for immigrants to adopt? Unprompted responses October 2011 R e s p e c t fo r C a n a d a ' s 28 h i s to r y a n d c u l tu r e 26 E n g l i s h a n d /o r Fr e n c h fl u e n c y 19 T o l e r a n c e fo r o th e r s R e s p e c t fo r th e l a w 17 9 N e e d to a s s i m i l a te 9 R e s p e c t fo r o th e r r e l i g i o n s G e n d e r e q u a l i ty 7 5 W o r k e th i c 5 D e m o c r a c y /fr e e d o m O th e r 6 D o n ' t k n o w 15 Source: 2011 Trudeau Foundation Conference

  20. What values are most important for immigrants to adopt?Immigrants agree with the native-born Respect for Canada’s history and culture 29 27 28 English and/or French fluency 25 Tolerance for others 21 18 Respect for the law 21 16 5 Respect for other religions 10 Immigrants 8 Need to assimilate Native-born 9 Source: 2011 Trudeau Foundation Conference

  21. An increasing proportion of Canadians think it’s a good idea to ban Muslim head scarves in public, but especially in Quebec Canada Quebec Rest of Canada 64 61 55 53 52 47 45 39 37 36 31 31 Good idea Bad idea Good idea Bad idea Good idea Bad idea 2006 2010 Environics Focus Canada 2010

  22. Aboriginal peoples

  23. Canada’s Aboriginal population is significant and growing – now back to pre-European contact numbers Aboriginal Ancestry Population 1 , 8 0 0 1 , 6 0 0 1 , 4 0 0 1 , 2 0 0 1 , 0 0 0 8 0 0 6 0 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 9 0 1 1 9 1 1 1 9 2 1 1 9 3 1 1 9 4 1 1 9 5 1 1 9 6 1 1 9 7 1 1 9 8 1 1 9 9 1 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 Source: Statistics Canada

  24. Of these, 1.2 million report Aboriginal identity, in three distinct groups Aboriginal Identity Population North American Indian single response 6 9 8 , 0 2 5 Métis single response 3 8 9 , 7 8 0 5 0 , 4 8 0 Inuit single response Total = 1,172,785 Multiple and other Aboriginal responses 3 4 , 5 0 0

  25. One in two of the Aboriginal population live in urban areas… Rural 46% Urban54% Source: Statistics Canada

  26. Aboriginal population and proportion of CMAs, with population increase, 2001-2006

  27. +60% Montreal +5% +51% Halifax +4% +31% Toronto +9% +27% Edmonton +10% +26% Calgary +13% +23% Thunder Bay Aboriginal Population Change 2001 - 2006 +1% Overall Population Change 2001 - 2006 +22% Winnipeg +3% …and these numbers are increasing, much faster than the rest of the population Source: Statistics Canada

  28. There continues to be a large gap in education levels between the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal population Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census

  29. First Nations, Métis and Inuit desire to be successful in mainstream ways. What are the things you most want to achieve in your lifetime? (top mentions) Complete education/degree 28 Start/raise/provide for family 24 22 Career/job satisfaction 19 Home ownership 12 Financial independence/security See children/grandchildren succeed 12 11 Travel/vacation 11 Good health/longevity 11 Happiness/live good life

  30. … and share universal definitions of a successful life. Are the following very, somewhat or not so important to your idea of a successful life? Raising healthy, well-adjustedchildren who contribute to community 90 5 2 Being close to family/friends 88 10 1 Living a balanced life 1 88 10 78 18 3 Having a good job/successful career Financial independence 71 23 4 Having strong connection toAboriginal identity/background 9 63 28 12 61 26 Owning a home 36 38 22 Living in a traditional way Very important Not so important Somewhat important

  31. Firstgeneration Secondgeneration 66% 87% Most feel their current city of residence is home… Where is home for you? City is home 71 Home community 16 12 Other

  32. Canadians are more likely than not to believe Aboriginal peoples are victims rather than causes of their problems Environics Focus Canada 2010

  33. Our analysis reveals four distinct segments of opinions about Aboriginal peoples Source: Environics Institute

  34. Visible Minority / Aboriginal Composition of 11 Largest Census Metropolitan Areas, Canada 2011 Source: Environics Analytics

  35. STAYIN’ ALIVE: How Canadian Baby Boomers Will Work, Play, and Find Meaning in the Second Half of Their Adult Lives A Presentation by Michael Adams President, Environics Group of Companies

  36. Canadian Generations Today • 5 million ELDERS (age 64+) • 9 million BOOMERS (45 to 63) • 7.5 million GEN X (29 to 44) • 6 million GEN Y (16 to 28)

  37. BIRTHS IN CANADA, 1921-2006 Source: Statistics Canada 1946-1965 = BOOM! 9.1 Million Canadians aged 45-63 27% of Canadian Population

  38. WHY BOOMERS MATTER Population Growth, 2010 - 2020, Canada 60% Boomers 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% - 10% - 20% 0 - 4 10 - 14 20 - 24 30 - 34 40 - 44 50 - 54 60 - 64 70 - 74 80 - 84 5 - 9 15 - 19 25 - 29 35 - 39 45 - 49 55 - 59 65 - 69 75 - 79 85+ Age Groups

  39. EVOLVING VALUES ELDERS BOOMERS POST-BOOMERS DEFERRED IMMEDIATE INSTANT

  40. CONFORMITY AND EXCLUSION THE SOCIAL VALUES MAP OSTENTATIOUS CONSUMPTION AIMLESSNESS ATTRACTION TO VIOLENCE CONFIDENCE IN BIG BUSINESS TECHNOLOGICAL ANXIETY CONCERN FOR APPEARANCE SOCIAL DARWINISM PURSUIT OF NOVELTY UTILITARIAN CONSUMERISM NEED FOR STATUS RECOGNITION CYNICISM PURSUIT OF INTENSITY AND EMOTIONAL EXPERIENCES APOCALYPTIC ANXIETY ADAPTIVE NAVIGATION AVERSION TO COMPLEXITY IN LIFE OUTER-DIRECTED INNER-DIRECTED IMPORTANCE OF BRAND IMPORTANCE OF PRICE DECONSUMPTION PURSUIT OF ORIGINALITY SPIRITUAL QUEST EMOTIONAL CONNECTIVITY HETERARCHY NEED FOR ESCAPE EVERYDAY ETHICS ENTHUSIASM FOR TECHNOLOGY EQUAL RELATIONSHIP WITH YOUTH FULFILLMENT THROUGH WORK INTROSPECTION AND EMPATHY IMPORTANCE OF SPONTANEITY SOCIAL LEARNING REJECTION OF AUTHORITY NEW SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY CULTURAL FUSION CONTROL OF DESTINY IDEAS AND INDIVIDUALISM

  41. CONFORMITY AND EXCLUSION The Mental Postures of the Quadrants CONFORMITY AND EXCLUSION Social Success, Materialism and Pride Security, Stability and Exclusion • Conformist and materialistic values • Social success, displaying status • Seek clearly defined structures • Feel excluded and lack purpose • Seek security, stability, leadership • Accept civil disobedience, violence MARTHA STEWART DON CHERRY OUTER-DIRECTED INNER-DIRECTED Experience and Personal Development Autonomy and Well-being • Personal fulfillment through experiment • Physical and moral well-being important • Care about being open to others, enriching experiences • Personal independence and control • Adhere to ideals regarding social issues • Reject authority, conformity, materialism BARACK OBAMA DAVID SUZUKI IDEALS AND INDIVIDUALISM

  42. EARLY BOOMERS HAVE BEEN AT THE VANGUARD OF CHANGING CANADIAN SOCIAL VALUES AT EVERY STAGE OF THEIR LIVES

  43. BABY BOOMERS ARE… SELF-CENTRED, SPENDTHRIFTS, NOSTALGIC, TREE-HUGGERS, INDULGENT PARENTS, LEFT-LEANING AGING HIPPIES, SELL-OUTS, IN DENIAL ABOUT DEATH.

  44. REALLY?

  45. BABY BOOMERS ARE DIVERSE FORGOT THE STEREOTYPES

  46. THE TRIBES CONFORMITY AND EXCLUSION Social Success, Materialism and Pride Security, Stability and Exclusion ANXIOUS COMMUNITARIANS DISENGAGED DARWINISTS OUTER-DIRECTED INNER-DIRECTED BABY BOOMERS CONNECTED ENTHUSIASTS AUTONOMOUS REBELS Experience and Personal Development Autonomy and Well-being IDEALS AND INDIVIDUALISM

  47. CANADIAN BABY BOOMERS CONNECTED ENTHUSIASTS

  48. ANXIOUS COMMUNITARIANS STRONGEST VALUES WEAKEST VALUES Hyper-Rationality Sexual Permissiveness Rejection of Authority Flexibility of Gender Identity Concern for Appearance Need for Status Recognition Fear of Violence Flexible Personality

  49. The Rockies, California, the Grand Canyon “See my son happy with his own son” “Visit all my relatives at least once more” “See the Leafs win the Stanley Cup” “Sleep with George Clooney” The Anxious Communitarian Bucket List (In Their Own Words)

  50. DISENGAGED DARWINISTS STRONGEST VALUES WEAKEST VALUES Introspection and Empathy Cultural Fusion Rejection of Authority Pursuit of Novelty Fatalism Hyper-Rationality Risk-Aversion Ethnic Intolerance

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