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Conclusions

This article explores the complexities of spatial, temporal, and functional scales and their influence on modeling. It discusses counterintuitive results, emergent properties, and the need for improved techniques and integrating concepts. The article also highlights the importance of multi-scale participatory scenarios and the use of reduced form models. It concludes with a discussion on proposed solutions by experts in the field.

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Conclusions

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Conclusions • We are far from understanding the influence of spatial, temporal and functional scale • What are functional scales? • Why are results counterintuitive? • Do emergent properties exist? • Our representation in models and scenarios is a caricature a best • Why is space square? • Why are case studies watersheds?

  2. The way ahead • Improve existing techniques • Combine existing techniques • Develop new integrating concepts

  3. E E E E E E Regional National I I I S S S Local Improve and combine: Using ‘reduced form’ models Multi-scale participatory scenarios

  4. Economic Ecological Income Prices Farmer decisions Natural vegetation Climate change Market behaviour Crop growth Institutional Social NGOs Social well-being Migration EU National government Cultural changes The modelling toolbox

  5. E E E E Regional National I I S S Combination with toolbox information Multi-scale participatory scenarios Local Theory

  6. Integrating Concepts • Lemniscate (Resilience Alliance) • Transition curve (IA)

  7. Panarchy (Gunderson & Holling, 2002)

  8. Transition curve (Rotmans) Indicator Stabilisation Acceleration Take-off Predevelopment Time

  9. Proposed solutions Wilbanks: Theoretical understanding of cross-scale dynamics Giampietro: Complex time Easterling: Self-organisation and resilience Rotmans: Transition management for sustainable development

  10. Discussion points Does scale really matter? -- It is but common sense It will never be solved -- The scale-problem is too complicated

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