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Weather Forecasts and Applications: Challenges, Value and Communication

Weather Forecasts and Applications: Challenges, Value and Communication. Hector Chikoore, Meteorologist University of Zululand SOUTH AFRICA. Key Users. Aviation Commercial civil Military Marine Agriculture Government: Civil protection and disaster management authorities Public

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Weather Forecasts and Applications: Challenges, Value and Communication

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  1. Weather Forecasts and Applications: Challenges, Value and Communication Hector Chikoore, Meteorologist University of Zululand SOUTH AFRICA

  2. Key Users • Aviation • Commercial civil • Military • Marine • Agriculture • Government: Civil protection and disaster management authorities • Public • Industry • Specialised forecasts

  3. Potential Value • Severe weather • >90% of natural disasters • Social • Protection of life • Safety (Aviation, fuel vs load) • Agriculture • Scheduling of activities • Economic • Profit (industry, Insurance) • Commercialization

  4. Communication • Do weather forecasts reach the intended targets? • Radio most effective • Language • “Rising pressure over the southeast coast should enhance convergence across the country” • Limitations • How can we communicate uncertainty? • Probabilities • Explicit expressions of uncertainty • The middle-men • Television presenters • The mercury will “drop” to 12°C overnight? • Communication • Civil Protection and Disaster Management • Other NMHSs of the region

  5. Application – translating forecasts into action • The science of weather forecasting has advanced faster than its users • Specialised forecasts (e.g. Aviation) highly applicable • Timeliness and accuracy • What should we forecast? • The needs of the user community • Target products and services at critical issues • How should we package such forecasts? • Warnings? • Weather information is only one component in decision making matrices

  6. Challenges • The Science • Tropical Meteorology • Model limitations • Lack of useful guidance information of localized heavy precipitation and strong winds, i.e. small scale phenomena • Nowcasting • Expertise/Experience/Education and Training (Tropical Met) • Observational • Data quality, transmission • Limited AWS, Radar, Radiosonde, AMDAR • Infrastructure • Communication • Slow Internet • Power outages • Equipment (Workstations, plotters, etc) and Maintenance • Nowcasting • Interaction NMHSs and CPDMAs not optimal • Retaining User Confidence

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