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Ageing Research - some questions

Ageing Research - some questions. Richard Murray, Executive Director, Fiscal and Corporate, Commonwealth Treasury. Fiscal Pressure on Budget Balance. Per cent of GDP. Per cent of GDP. 2. 2. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. 2002-03. 2005-06. 2008-09. 2011-12. 2014-15. 2017-18.

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Ageing Research - some questions

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  1. Ageing Research- some questions Richard Murray, Executive Director, Fiscal and Corporate, Commonwealth Treasury

  2. Fiscal Pressure on Budget Balance Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 2002-03 2005-06 2008-09 2011-12 2014-15 2017-18 2020-21 2023-24 2026-27 2029-30 2032-33 2035-36 2038-39 2041-42

  3. Major components of budget cost Drivers Impacts in 40 years Health +4¼% GDP Demography Aged care +1 GDP Payments to individuals + ½% GDP Average cost of programmes Education etc -½% GDP Total +5¼% GDP Fiscal adjustment

  4. Budget balance falls and debt increases 1 Pass the problem to future generations Tax:GDP ratio increases 2 Lower cost budget programmes Policy response 3 Faster GDP growth Policy choices

  5. Population Employment (hours) GDP Participation Multifactor productivity Components of GDP growth Total population Share of population 15+ Participation rate Unemployment rate Average hours worked Capital deepening Productivity

  6. Skills

  7. Skills

  8. Skills

  9. Skills

  10. Skills & education • School retention rates? • Foundation skills and lifelong learning? • Remedial action for increasing skill levels of adults of working age? • Female labour supply and demand for part time work? • Future for unskilled males/females in a changing economy?

  11. Health • What type of policy interventions generate the greatest improvement in health outcomes? • What is the nature of the link between good health and specific aspects of social and economic participation, such as labour force participation? • How can we maximise the benefits delivered by the subsidised PBS?

  12. Retirement Decision • What is the impact of dependent children? • Will less physically demanding work lead to longer working lives? • What influence does the level of home ownership have on the retirement decision? • Workplace flexibility and the retirement decision? • Relationship between current income, expected income in retirement and age of retirement?

  13. End

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