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Fuels Used in Electricity Generation

Fuels Used in Electricity Generation. For U.S. Nuclear Infrastructure Council June 05, 2013 | Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, Administrator. Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation.

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Fuels Used in Electricity Generation

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  1. Fuels Used in Electricity Generation For U.S. Nuclear Infrastructure Council June 05, 2013 | Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, Administrator

  2. Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 History Projections 1993 2011 30% Natural gas 25% 16% Renewables 13% 13% 11% 19% 17% Nuclear 19% 35% 42% 53% Coal Oil and other liquids 4% 1% 1% Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  3. Key results from the AEO2013 reference case relating to the electric power sector • While coal still remains the largest single source of U.S. electricity generation, it’s role declines as natural gas and renewables pick up increasing market share • Natural gas production is higher throughout the reference case projection than it was in AEO2012, serving the industrial and power sectors and an expanding export market • Role of nuclear power in the U.S. generation mix stays relatively steady • The U.S. becomes a larger exporter of natural gas and coal than was projected in the AEO2012 reference case • U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain more than five percent below their 2005 level through 2040, reflecting increased efficiency and the shift to a less carbon-intensive fuel mix Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  4. Why we mightcould will be wrong? • Changing policies and regulations • Changing consumer preferences • Faster / slower economic growth • Faster / slower technological progress • Different relative fuel prices • Technological breakthroughs Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  5. Electricity demand: growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 28% from 2012 to 2040 percent growth (3-year compounded annual growth rate) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 2011 History Projections Electricity Use 2011 – 2040 average 2.4% GDP 0.9% Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  6. Natural gas and coal prices: coal regains competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Energy prices to the electric power sector 2011 dollars per Btu 2011 History 2011 Projections Natural gas Coal Competitive parity Projections History Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  7. Domestic production of shale gas has grown dramatically over the past few years shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day Sources: LCI Energy Insight gross withdrawal estimates as of April 2013 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play. Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  8. New power plant costs: levelized cost of electricity costs for new U.S. electricity power plants in 2018 2011 dollars per megawatthour Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  9. The fuel mix for electricity generation varies widely across U.S. regions (2011) Share of Generation by Fuel, 2011 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, based on Form EIA-923 Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  10. The projected fuel mix for electricity generation by region (2040) Share of Generation by Fuel, 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  11. Additions to electricity generation capacity, 1985-2040 U.S. electricity generation capacity additions gigawatts Source: EIA Form 860 & EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  12. Changes in nuclear capacity for the AEO2013 reference case gigawatts Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  13. Nuclear relevant side cases in AEO2013 • High/low nuclear • High/low oil and gas resource • Small modular reactors (SMRs) ??? • CO2 fee cases Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  14. Nuclear capacity additions in AEO2013 vary under different assumptions capacity additions gigawatts Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Planned Unplanned Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  15. If natural gas prices stay low, coal is permanently displaced as the leading generation source in the near future billion kilowatthours Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Projections Reference Coal High Oil and Natural Gas Resource Natural Gas Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  16. Power sector electricity generation capacity by fuel in five cases, 2011 and 2040 Oil/gas steam capacity gigawatts Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Natural gas combined cycle Natural gas combustion turbine Coal Nuclear Renewable/other 2040 Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  17. Small Modular Reactors (SMR) • SMR technology differs from traditional, large-scale light-water reactor technology in both reactor size and plant scalability • EIA conducted a side case to evaluate the effect of a shorter construction period on future nuclear capacity expansion • The case showed that there are potential cost saving from the shorter construction periods but uncertainty about potential future operations costs remains. Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  18. Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2013 reference case and carbon fee allowance side cases U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 2013 Reference Case $25 Carbon Fee $15 Carbon Fee 2011 30% 34% Natural gas 34% 24% Natural gas Natural gas 16% Renewables 13% 22% Renewables 23% 17% Renewables 19% Nuclear Nuclear 27% Nuclear Coal 35% 42% 38% Coal 16% Coal 4% Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  19. U.S. dependence on imported liquids depends on both supply and demand U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 and Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2013 History Projections 2014 2012 32% STEO forecast for 2014 -8% Consumption 37% Petroleum Exports 40% Net imports Domestic supply Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  20. Keynote Speakers Dr. Ernest J. Moniz U.S. Secretary of Energy Lisa Murkowski United States Senator Alaska Thomas Fanning Chairman, President and CEO Southern Company Aldo Flores-Quiroga Secretary General International Energy Forum Hans Rosling Chairman Gapminder EIA.gov Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

  21. For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

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