1 / 7

Analyzing Tropical Cyclones Probabilities - Weather Analysis Example

Learn how to estimate the probability that a future tropical cyclone is a hurricane and apply it to scenarios involving the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Practice calculating conditional probabilities using real-world data.

scottcbrown
Download Presentation

Analyzing Tropical Cyclones Probabilities - Weather Analysis Example

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Weather The table shows the numbers of tropical cyclones that formed during the hurricane seasons from 1988 to 2004. Use the table to estimate (a) the probability that a future tropical cyclone is a hurricane and (b) the probability that a future tropical cyclone in the Northern Hemisphere is a hurricane. EXAMPLE 4 Find a conditional probability

  2. Number of hurricanes P(hurricane) = Total number of Cyclones 760 0.483 = 1575 P(hurricane Northern Hemisphere) Number of hurricanes in Northern Hemisphere = Total number of Cyclones in Northern Hemisphere 545 0.477 = 1142 EXAMPLE 4 Find a conditional probability SOLUTION

  3. Selecting Cards You randomly select two cards from a standard deck of 52 cards. What is the probability that the first card is not a heart and the second is a heart if (a) you replace the first card before selecting the second, and (b) you do not replace the first card? EXAMPLE 5 Comparing independent and dependent events SOLUTION Let Abe “the first card is not a heart” and Bbe “the second card is a heart.”

  4. If you replace the first card before selecting the second card, then Aand Bare independent events. So, the probability is: 13 3 39 P(A and B) = P(A) P(B) = 0.188 = 52 16 52 If you do not replace the first card before selecting the second card, then Aand Bare dependent events. So, the probability is: 13 13 39 P(A and B) = P(A) P(B A ) 0.191 = = 51 68 52 EXAMPLE 5 Comparing independent and dependent events

  5. What If? Use the information in Example 4 to find (a) the probability that a future tropical cyclone is a tropical storm and (b) the probability that a future tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere is a tropical storm. a. 0.38 ANSWER ANSWER 0.46 for Examples 4 and 5 GUIDED PRACTICE

  6. 1 = 16 a. ANSWER A spade, then a club 13 = 204 ANSWER for Examples 4 and 5 GUIDED PRACTICE Find the probability of drawing the given cards from a standard deck of 52 cards (a) with replacement and (b) without replacement.

  7. 1 = 169 a. ANSWER 1 = 221 A jack, then another jack ANSWER for Examples 4 and 5 GUIDED PRACTICE Find the probability of drawing the given cards from a standard deck of 52 cards (a) with replacement and (b) without replacement.

More Related