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15th Statistical days

15th Statistical days. Activities for Adopting the Euro. Radenci, 7-9 November 2005 Andrej Rant. Procedures Scenarios Changeover Issues Importance of Statistics. Procedures. Treaty establishing European Community Obligation to adopt Euro

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15th Statistical days

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  1. 15th Statistical days Activities for Adopting the Euro Radenci, 7-9 November 2005 Andrej Rant

  2. Procedures • Scenarios • Changeover Issues • Importance of Statistics

  3. Procedures Treaty establishing European Community Obligation to adopt Euro - new Member States and Sweden - opt out clause for Danemark and Great Britain Criteria for Euro Adoption Type:- economic - legal (law on NCB) Assesment: - regular Convergence Report by the Commission and the ECB every two years (next in 2006) - Convergence Report on request of the Member State Decision making Who:- Member States of the Eurosystem with consultation of European Parliament What:- abrogation of derogation - irrevocably fixed exchange rate Majority: - qualified majority for abrogation of derogation - unanimity, after consulting ECB for irrevocably fixed exchange rate

  4. Procedures Maastricht Criteria Criterion Slovenia • 1. Inflation (in %, September 2005) 2,4 2,7 • 2. Long term interest rate (in %, September 2005) 5,52 3,97 • 3. Public deficit ( % of GDP, 2004) - 3,0 - 2,0 • 4. Public debt ( % of GDP, 2004) 60,0 29,5

  5. Procedures Legal Convergence Remarks, presented in 2004 Convergence Report are mainly related to: - personal independence - hierarchy of goals - monetary policy operations (use of instruments, coin issuing, exchange rate policy) - protection of BoS foreign exchange reserves against governement interferance - protection of ESCB assets in BoS against seizure

  6. Scenarios • Possible Choices of Scenarios for Euro Adoption • Bing bang: - Euro adoption together with banknotes and coins introduction • Big bang with phasing out: - big bang with timely limited use of former national • currency in certain legal instruments after Euro introduction (invoices, • accounting, administrative acts, legal acts, contracts etc). The settlement • currency is always Euro. • Transitional period: -period between Euro adoption and banknotes and coins • introduction • Dual circulation periodis a period after Euro introduction during which former national • currency is still used for cash payments, to facilitate withdrawal of the • currency

  7. Scenarios Joint Governement/BoS Euro Changeover Plan 1. Scenario chosen: Big Bang 2. Coordination of activities: national coordination body, chaired by Ministry of finance and BoS 3. Changeover rules: Council Regulations Euro Introduction Act

  8. Scenarios

  9. Scenarios

  10. Scenarios Council Regulations 1. Regulation 974/98: regulates scenarios for Euro adoption. Changes in preparation revoke Madrid scenario and introduce additional scenario (Big Bang with phasing out) 2. Regulation 2866/98: regulates irrevocably exchange rates. New acceding Member States will be included with amendements 3. Regulation 1103/97: regulates practical issues like continuity of contracts, the use of irrevocable exchange rate for conversion, rounding rules etc.

  11. Changeover Issues Changeover Issues National legal adjustments - subsidiarity in relation to Council Regulations - umbrella law plus limited number of other laws - contractual arrangements relating to Euro cash distribution Operational adjustments Among other: - conversion of accounts - capital market instruments conversion - transition to ECB monetary instruments - interest rates conversion - payment transactions - national coins minting - front and subfront loading of Euro banknotes and coins - ATMs IT adjustments relevant.

  12. Changeover Issues Information campain Programme European dimension – euro is domestic currency of EU. BoS and Governement joint programme adopted. Cooperation with ECB and Commission assured. Timing Three subperiods: - convergence assesment (fulfilment of Maastricht criteria) - pre-entry period (basic informations about Euro and changeover) - changeover (implementation) Focus Special attention for: - education on euro fasificates - specific needs of individual social groups (disabled, blind, elderly)

  13. Importance of Statistics Statistics and EMU Production of reliable statistical data for timely compilation of key statistics for the euro area and the EU, necessary for conduct of single monetary policy and for convergence assesment. - Principal European Economic Indicators(19) Consumer Price Indicators (2) Quarterly National Accounts (4) Business Indicators (8) Labour Market Indicators (4) External Trade Indicators (1) - Fiscal Statistics regular EDP notification on public debt and deficit (March 1, September 1) - Monetary and Financial statistics support for single monetary policy

  14. Importance of Statistics Adjustments needed for Slovenia General Economic Statistics (GES): more timely quarterly employment data (persons) and national accounts data; geografical breakdown of IIP statistics; gaps in quarterly employment data (hours) Governement Financial Statistics (GFS): gaps in annual GFS; gaps in quarterly governement data on revenue, expenditure and surplus/deficit; Maastricht debt at market rather than nominal value Regular reports on statistical prepardness examined in September by ECB and in October by EFC. Commitments taken to close the outstanding issues by 30 June 2006 at the latest.

  15. Importance of Statistics Statistics and Changeover Conversion of time series Unified conversion rules to be applied by all institutional providers of statistical data. Reporting from different sources of data, characteristics of individual time series (absolute values, indices), publication requirements, accuracy, exchange rates and other methodological elements to be assessed and reshaped if needed. Important decision was recently taken about the use of exchange rates by national Statistical Council. Basic interest rate (BIR) Financial contracts from the past incorporate indexation clauses in the form of basic interest rate. Continued publication of BIR is needed, according to the prescribed rules and procedures by statistical office.

  16. Importance of Statistics Dual display of prices The adopted law on dual display of prices determines the compulsory dual display of prices for the period between March 1, 2006 and June 30, 2007. Statistical measurement should accompany the implementation of the law. The approach to “price watch” to be discussed with Consumer Protection Association.

  17. Importance of Statistics • Mental transition to Euro • Key informations for the public • Importance of responses • Slovenia Average in New • Member States • Dual display of prices 88 % 81 % • Dual display of bank statements 77 % 70 % • Dual display of payroll • statements 79 %66 % • Source: EOS Gallup Europe

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