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Double exponential smoothing method - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

BABS 502 Moving Averages, Decomposition and Exponential Smoothing Revised March 14, 2010

BABS 502 Moving Averages, Decomposition and Exponential Smoothing Revised March 14, 2010. Moving Averages. F t (1) is average of last m observations Issue is to choose m Most appropriate if series is random variation around a mean This is the case if all autocorrelations are near zero

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BABS 502 Moving Averages, Decomposition and Exponential Smoothing Revised March 11, 2014

BABS 502 Moving Averages, Decomposition and Exponential Smoothing Revised March 11, 2014. Single Exponential Smoothing. One-step ahead forecast is the weighted average of current value and past forecast F t (1) = a( Current Value)+ (1- a ) Past Forecast = a X t + (1- a ) F t-1 (1)

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Double exponential smoothing method - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

BABS 502 Moving Averages, Decomposition and Exponential Smoothing Revised March 14, 2010

BABS 502 Moving Averages, Decomposition and Exponential Smoothing Revised March 11, 2014