NIDIS-Supported Efforts in the ACF River Basin

1. NIDIS-Supported Efforts in the ACF River Basin Puneet Srivastava Associate Professor Department of Biosystems Engineering Auburn University Chris Martinez Assistant Professor Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department University of Florida Jessica Bolson Post-Doctoral Fellow Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department University of Florida

2. Reducing Drought Risks in the Southeast USA: Quantification of Drought Information Value, Development of Drought Indices, and Communication of Drought InformationPuneet Srivastava (PI), LatifKalin, Keith Ingram, David Stooksbury, Pam Knox, Jessica Bolson, MuthuvelChelliah, Richard Marcus, and Matt DunnNeeds, Uses, Perceptions, and Attitudes towards Weather and Climate Forecast Information by Water Resource Managers in the Southeastern United StatesChris Martinez (PI), Norman Breuer, Jessica Bolson, Jim Jones, David Stooksbury, and Tatiana BorisovaShort-term Stream flow Forecast Using Southeast River Forecast Center’s Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP)PuneetSrivastava(PI), Keith Ingram, LatifKalin, Todd Hamill, and MuthuvelChelliah

3. Reducing Drought Risks in the Southeast USA: Quantification of Drought Information Value, Development of Drought Indices, and Communication of Drought Information • Three separate objectives • Assess drought-related climate information needs, perceptions, and attitudes of municipal water managers and identify current water supply and drought mitigation policies • Develop a municipal water deficit index (MWDI) and prototype visualization tool for disseminating drought information • Quantify the value of drought information for municipal water managers, and evaluate alternative policies for drought risk reduction

4. Needs, Uses, Perceptions, and Attitudes towards Weather and Climate Forecast Information by Water Resource Managers in the Southeastern United States • Three separate objectives • Assess water resource managers’ needs, uses, perceptions, and attitudes of weather and climate information and identify barriers and opportunities for adoption • Develop regional evaporation forecasts for reservoir managers • Incorporate information on weather and climate variability and change, its potential impacts, and forecast products into educational materials for stakeholders

5. Stakeholder Assessment-Rationale • In order to provide usable scientific input into decision making, region and sector specific assessment of stakeholders’ needs is essential • Relevant forecasts and decision support are those that fit with decisions being made by stakeholders

6. Stakeholder Assessment- Goals • Identify needs, uses, and perceptions of weather and climate forecast information by water resource management community • Establish a dialogue between water resource managers in the ACF and researchers of the SECC

7. Stakeholder Assessment-Approach • Web-based internet survey • Follow-up semi-structured interviews • In person • Phone • Iterative feedback using tools/forecasts currently under development as examples

8. Stakeholder Assessment- The Process • Contact state, regional, and local managers and stakeholders who make decisions on water supply or water resource management or who influence these decisions • Conduct internet surveys and interviews to identify uses, perceptions, information needs, information gaps, and potential barriers to adoption of forecasts

9. Stakeholder Assessment- Targeted Participants • Managers of mid- to large-size public drinking water utility systems in the ACF • Managers of small scale community water systems in the ACF • Those with influence over water resource decisions in the states of Alabama, Florida, and Georgia

10. Stakeholder Assessment-Current status of project • Developing list of potential participants • Preparing internet survey • Preparing questions for follow-up interviews • Preparing for IRB approval from associated research institutions

11. Concurrent assessment and product development • Develop a municipal water deficit index (MWDI) and prototype visualization tool for disseminating drought information • Develop downscaled evapotranspirationforecasts for water resource managers • Solicit feedback on format and presentation of forecasts and verification measures of these products as well as existing forecasts and monitoring products

12. Evaporation Forecasts using Forecast Analogs Current Forecast • NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) 1-15 day • NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) 1-9 month • Analog forecasts used to produce fine-resolution (32 km) forecasts using past observations Fine Resolution Probabilistic Forecast Similar Past Forecasts Past Observations

13. Municipal Water Deficit Index for Small- to Mid-Size Communities • Drought conditions result in increased demand and decreased supply. • Such fluctuation in climatic conditions may cause short-term failures in the municipal water system. • Focused on small- to mid-size communities relying on surface water systems • More than 75 such communities in the ACF • Have similar systems • Reservoir(s), direct withdrawal from streams, withdrawal from stream for storage in reservoir, etc.

14. Municipal Water Deficit Index for Small- to Mid-Size Communities • Currently available drought information (US Drought Monitor, Lawn and Garden Moisture Index, etc. are not specific to municipal water systems) • High spatial variability of the rainfall in the Southeast • Supply and demand not considered • Do not forecast • Proposed MWDI will • Operate at a high spatial resolution • Be web-based • Be customizable by municipalities • Considers supply and demand, and • Forecast based on climate and management practices

15. Municipal Water Deficit Index for Small- to Mid-Size Communities • STELLA model using a system dynamics approach for development of the methodology • Auburn, AL and Griffin, GA as case municipalities • Web-based implementation when the methodology has been developed

16. Municipal Water Deficit Index for Small- to Mid-Size Communities • In the forecast mode, MWDI will include current water availability, forecasted inflows from precipitation and predicted demand for municipal supply. • MWDI calculation using the past dataset for validation with the lake levels/drought occurrences in the past.