Limitations of Single-Basket Trading: Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy

1. Limitations of Single-Basket Trading: Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy John S. Daniel National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Chemical Sciences Division Boulder, Colorado USA Limitations of Single-Basket Trading: Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy, Daniel, Solomon, Sanford, McFarland, Fuglestvedt, and Friedlingstein, Climatic Change, 2012 (online 2011).

2. Limitations of Single-Basket Trading: Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy John S. Daniel National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Chemical Sciences Division Boulder, Colorado USA Montreal Protocol Success A Lesson for Climate Policy Implications for HFC Policy Limitations of Single-Basket Trading: Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy, Daniel, Solomon, Sanford, McFarland, Fuglestvedt, and Friedlingstein, Climatic Change, 2012 (online 2011).

3. Montreal Protocol Multiple Basket Approach • Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs, halons, etc.)

4. Montreal Protocol Multiple Basket Approach • Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs, halons, etc.) • No “trading” among groups

5. Montreal Protocol Multiple Basket Approach • Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs, halons, etc.) • No “trading” among groups • Highly successful Adapted from Velders et al, PNAS, 2007 No Protocol A Measure Of Success

6. Montreal Protocol Multiple Basket Approach • Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs, halons, etc.) • No “trading” among groups • Highly successful • CFCs/HCFCs Illustration Adapted from Velders et al, PNAS, 2007 No Protocol A Measure Of Success

7. CFC/HCFC Contribution to O3 Depletion Obs- based Projections

8. Impact of a Trade to HCFCs

9. Single-Basket Range of O3 Depletion

10. Kyoto ProtocolSingle Basket Approach SF6 CH4 PFCs CO2 HFCs N2O

11. Kyoto ProtocolSingle Basket Approach SF6 CH4 2010 Radiative Forcing PFCs CO2 HFCs N2O

12. Kyoto ProtocolSingle Basket Approach SF6 CH4 2010 Radiative Forcing PFCs CO2 HFCs N2O

13. CO2/CH4 Impact on Climate(RCP4.5)

14. Impact of a Trade to All CH4 Emissions All CH4

15. Impact of a Trade to All CO2 Emissions All CO2

16. Ambiguity of Single Basket

17. Implications for HFCs Velders et al, PNAS, 2009

18. Implications for HFCs Radiative Forcing Change from 2010 to 2050 (RCP8.5) 1.8 Velders et al, PNAS, 2009

19. Implications for HFCs This can all be avoided Velders, PNAS, 2009

20. Implications for HFCs This can all be avoided Potential Long-term penalty Velders, PNAS, 2009

21. N2O and Ozone Depletion Ravishankara et al., 2009

22. Conclusions • The Montreal Protocol successfully implemented a multi-basket approach to deal with the international problem of stratospheric ozone depletion. • A single-basket approach, as used in the Kyoto Protocol, can lead to some level of ambiguity in the climate impact of regulation. • If regulation on some group of gases (e.g., HFCs) has the inadvertent affect of delaying CO2 regulation, this will have multi-century climate implications.