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Discussion: Ensemble System Configuration (Hogsett/Bright)

Discussion: Ensemble System Configuration (Hogsett/Bright). How to determine the optimal configuration (resolution, size, ICs/LBCs, physics, etc.)? Testing by EMC, DTC, and/or research community? How to optimize use of computational resources?

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Discussion: Ensemble System Configuration (Hogsett/Bright)

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  1. Discussion: Ensemble System Configuration (Hogsett/Bright) • How to determine the optimal configuration (resolution, size, ICs/LBCs, physics, etc.)? • Testing by EMC, DTC, and/or research community? • How to optimize use of computational resources? • Global, mesoscale, and cloud-permitting ensembles? • Time-lagged ensembles? • Future of multi-center ensembles? • New “NAEFS” including ECMWF ensemble?

  2. Discussion: Ensemble Forecasting and Probabilistic Guidance (Hogsett/Jirak) • How do we make best use of ensemble guidance? • NDFD remains deterministic • Ensemble visualization tools are underdeveloped • Filling the training gap for ensemble-based DSS • Division of labor between EMC and downstream users for probabilistic guidance development. • Is there a dividing line? • How to avoid duplication of effort? • Do users prioritize a high-quality underlying system or advanced post-processed products? • Role of virtual labs and cloud for development and data dissemination?

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