INDEX

1. IPv6Socio-Economic Impacts :Virtuous infrastructure planning and virtual paradigm shifts Anticipating an enhanced technological convergenceunder an intelligent interface and IPv6 Internet architecture. St. Petersburg June 29th July 3rd 2003 Jonathan Robin jonathanrobin@messagerie.net IPv6 Task Force http:/www.ipv6tf.org

2. INDEX 3 Introduction 15TechnicalCoherency 27 Societal Impact 4Overview 16 IPv4 <-> IPv628 Health 5 Internet IPv4 17 Network Stimulation 29 Privacy II 6 Priorities 18 Network Paradoxes 30 Education 7 Light at the end 19 Auto-Configuration 31 Stakes 8IPv6 Facts 20 ‘Vested Interests’ 32 French Priorities 9IP Everywhere21IPv6 and Content 33 Awareness II 10 Addresses IPv6 22 Economic Impacts 34 W.S.I.S. 11 Addresses II 23 Privacy 35 Links URL 12 E…NUMbers 24 Societal Implications 36/38 Win/Win 13 Stellar Analogy 25 Awareness 39 Convergencies 14 Spaced out 26 Societal Impact 40/41 Conclusions

3. INTRODUCTION The animated scroll symbolically suggests that the widest spectrum of Civil Society, Public and Private Sector activities will be influenced by the IPv6(sc)roll-out. The priority accorded IPv6 should be integrated into all agendas. • n.b. Several points or features sketched out in this presentation are not yet stabilised or mature. Growing awareness of IPv6 societal impacts has been recognized as a priority by the Commission, the Council of Europe, UNESCO NGO WSIS Forum and the World Summit on the Information Society.

4. Internet OVERVIEW • Since the dawn of time, sentient life and physical objects have been linked point to point « all roads lead to Rome » • Since 1993 the I.E.T.F has defined, and, since 1999 theIPv6Forum has prepared, a new Internet architecture protocolIPv6. • Since 1/1/1983the IPv4 Internet has connected computers to computers.IPv6, itself neutral, will, with almost infinite numbering capacity and meta data multimedia environments - MPEG 7/21 - provide the architectural platform interfacing users and usages beyond traditional notions of time and space. This, through novel peer to peer applications - Distance Learning and E Health, - could empower individuals and stimulate unprecedented worldwide economic growth. • Japan and China aim at 100%IPv6 compatibility by 2005/6. The frontier between ‘on-line’ and ‘off-line’ environnements will become increasingly blurred by mobile networks as pervasive inntelligent communicating devices are deployed. our perception of what is real !

5. Internet IPv4 Address Space • Theoretically today’s Internetoffers about 4,3 billion IP addresses, insufficient for all – even without taking into account the intelligent man-machine interfaces of tomorrow. • For all practical purposes the effective number of IP addresses is considerably less, unevenly distributed, or even rationed in favour of the Internet’s historical stakeholders : > 500m users share < 250m addresses. Address space demand will exceed supply and test routing table capacity somewhere between 2007 and 2009 depending on the scenario referenced.

6. IPv6 Priorities • Stakeholders MUST understand : sustained competitive relevance, the coherency of their priorities, the latter’s translation in terms of ROI, will depend upon awareness and upstream integration of macro-economic and societal implications of IPv6 migration. Thus IPv6 deployed with mobile sensor networks will be perceived as a strategic priority more through its influence as a value added application interface, than by the technical platform architecture image with which it is identified today. • TOP PRIORITY : Business intelligence and upstream training – even if the message is somewhat difficult to transmit in today’s economic climate. • No actor can ignore the implications of the U.S. DoD decision to migrate to IPv6as of end October 2003. We are leaving the world of fixed roadmaps to enter a universe of multi-dimensional dynamic interfaces.

7. Light at the end of the IPv6Tunnel Some roll-out expectations will take longer than expected. Security, mandated forIPv6, offers robustness & infinitely scaleable IP address space, - both unavailable under IPv4 because of NAT..…Network Address Translation Disparitiesbetween rapid bio-nano-technological innovation and slow legislative calendars between on-line and off-line legislation, between privacy protection and respect for cyber security, between best practicebench marking under previous yardsticks and insufficient appreciation of the scale of latent change, will cause macro economic and social tensions. IPv6may revitalise world economies as a platform for new value added applications and content forms – without this necessarily being at the expense of the third world.

8. IPv6Facts • Unlike IPv4, IPv6 integration will take several years, as IPv6 networks are progressively extended. Microsoft that software MUST BE compatible by 2004, hardware by 2006. The U.S. Department of Defence plan for migration October 2003 should be a lesson since events in Iraq. IPv6will adapt current services more cheaply, more by integrating new functions, through application download, than by additional equipment apart from routers. • “IP Everywhere” is NEITHERa neutral conceptNOR a superficial evolution.IPv6 could catalyse societal, economic and political paradigm shifts accompanied by accelerating production cycles and declining strategic visibility. This evolution towards a pervasive address architecture will be as stimulating to some as disturbing to others. It also heralds an offline logistics revolution.

9. Innovation Acceleration IP Everywhere • Next Generation Internet will be easier to deploy, more secure, seamless plug & p(l)ay, always on, : IP Everywhere • 3GPPIPv6will enable and empower new multi - media content forms adding to everyday experience. • Opportunities for international economic prosperity beyond the dreams of the dot com start-up melt down do exist. However stakeholders now work within an uncomfortable economic context through insufficient upstream analysis of the “New Economy”. Also, due to the influence of “9/11”, changing perceptions have created new societal challenges for all. new dimensions

10. Address and Security IPv6 v. NAT • Although facilitating network enablement through offering temporary solutions for address scarcity under IPv4, NAT : Network Address Translation is incompatible with Internet security, compromises IPSec ambitions, thus user and investor confidence. • IPv4 is not scaleable. IPv6 means securer and more robust end-to-end networks than NAT under IPv4, while offering theoretically free static IP addresses for all imaginable usages, - ‘online’ and ‘offline’ accessible to all. This in itself can significantly contribute both towards sustained development and reduce the digital divide as we know it today. New divides could become an issue tomorrow.

11. IPv6 Address Space • Genuity has 3 class A IPv4 addresses - more than China’s current 30 million allocation, and in fact more than all of asia combined ! IPv6 will effectively offer infinite address autonomy to all. • IPv6is needed to protect cultural heritage through local language Internet availability, and to ensure equitable information access for all. • Most of the collateral societal effects of infinite extended proximity combined with almost unlimited address space have yet to be imagined

12. IPv6 E...NUMB..ers ! = 340 282 366 920 938 463 374 607 431 701 211 156 • IPv6 : 128 bits 10°28 addresses : ……..which for most of us signifies almost as much as 651 112 107 134 706 473 364 839 029 663 282 043 ! • IPv6offers >600billion IP adresses permm²of the 510 millions km² of the Earth’s surface, >100 per person per mm² or :  … • If each grain of sand containing 1 IP address was piled up on Earth, its circumference would exede that of the sun. If IPv4 represents one cm., IPv6 represents 3 times the diameter of our galaxy. In other words, under IPv6 each person could have a trillion times the addresses in today’s entire Net.

13. Yesterday’s Superstar, today’s Nova, tomorrow’s ? • If we follow up the stellar analogy : Corporations currently leaders could condemn themselves to dwarf status, to black holes tomorrow, unless there is appropriate awareness grown within their own galaxies on the potential impacts of IPv6 based applications. • The return to earth of many projects and more ideals has been painful over the last 18 months. The priority accorded IPv6 offers both the Private Sector and Civil Society a strategic positioning and awareness growing conducive to sustainable competion, coherent agendas, and improved appreciation of the long term strategic implications involved.

14. CONVERGENCIES : from address …… space THROUGH space Research on interplanetary network has started :http://www.ipnsig.org • N.B. : There is method in the apparent madness. The numbers quoted in the previous slides may begin to make sense when linked into nano technological research into tomorrow’s quantum and sub-molecular computing e.g. Corning, Weitzmann Institute. Yet, if sensor networks become pervasive then address availability may become problematic by mid century.

15. IPv6 : Technical Coherency • Auto-configuration transparent Plug & Play • Address Space enhanced allowing hierarchical routing. • Simplified Mobility for nomad interfaces. • More robust packet processing end-to-end, security/privacy protection within IP packets. More robust networks and datagrams. • Quality of Service under experimentation, differentiated services Caveat : immature, unready • Mandated IPSec Security, end-to-end (key management, confidentiality, authentication) DNSsec : Caveat : progressive integration.

16. IPv4 <-> IPv6 • IPv4 links computers to computers. • IPv6 Interfaces Users and Usages, giving everything infinite extended proximity : - a radically new historical paradigm ! • IPv4 et IPv6coexistence will facilitate progressive and transparent integration. A worldwide trend to Internet everywhere always on, especially wireless despite its current security problems, will induce and accompany acceleration of innovation. Delays caused by insufficient awareness of appropriate political long term planning and arbitrages in phase with nano and biotechnological innovations under IPv6 and or R.F.I.D. will profoundly impact societies

17. Networks of Information Stimulation • Content reevaluation, and redefinitions will offer unprecedented opportunities and challenges cf. IBM’s holograms and : http://web.media.mit.edu/~vmb/papers/SMPTE144.pdf • Individual reception of multicast content, and the applications associated with intelligent wearables and electroluminescent polymers will modify Man’s perception of daily life. Infinite applications in areas such as education and health will modify learning methodologies, thus, more and more, end user behavior patterns especially for youth. • Public and Private Sector Information platforms. E-Governance and Crisis Management

18. Information Networks : Paradoxes • Mpeg 7, and later Mpeg 21 will modify all content, not only musical/video distribution, Meta data, DRM Musical search engines, new encryption options & privacy issues based on music are on few radar screens today. Quid statutory storage obligations ? • The frontier between ‘real’ & ‘virtual’ will become more and more uncertain in the eyes of T.C.Mits – The Common Man In The Street.  or  ? • Stakeholders SHOULD seek prior awareness of Standards definitions enabling them to integrate ideas optimizing business models more appropriate to tomorrow’s Internet environment, …. even if the client or end-user cannot identify the strategic stakes involved.

19. Auto-Configuration • AUTO-CONFIGURATION ‘Plug and Play’, a major advantage of IPv6 deployment, will offer actors significant economies of scale, facilitate roll out and accessibility while enhancing linguistic diversity and the protection of cultural heritage. • Auto-configuration will help teacher, medical corps, civil service or private sector training while overcoming user reluctance to adapt to new equipment. Automatic online upgrades or after sales’ service will offer cheaper logistics support. The apparent ease of seamless connectivity will accelerate further innovation and could offer leapfrog advantages to the third world.

20. IP EVERYWHERE : QuidVESTED INTERESTS ? • What happens to potential privacy considerations with SLP the Service Location Protocol given a world wide scaleable network ? • Bio and nanotechnological convergencies reinforce traditional research, changing the macro-economic context of key sectors of any economy as understood today ? • What happens if your fridge decides to become a digital washing machine or your Microwave soft sells ITS favorite recipes, when life expectancy increases > 110 ? What effects on the Insurance sector ?WHO will pay for PENSIONS in 2025 ? 

21. IPv6 & Content • Developing nation dependency on international content industry could be inversed by peer to peer models, by storage improvements under IPv6, thus protecting cultural heritage worldwide. • The Private Sector should encourage the Public Sector to simplify red tape, to guarantee greater transparency and free circulation of information and archive integrity. Innovative multimedia metadata standards can offer pointers towards win/win innovative content reinforcing corporate profitability - not necessarily that of current industry leaders. Consultation with Civil Society representatives seems appropriate. Once again, - new standards and “advances” will extend the frontiers of reality beyond today’s perceptions.

22. BANKNOTES Given all the IPv6 addresses available what happens : • when any physical object from jewelry and banknotes to Aunt Jemima’s pet poodle, could have an embedded IP number making theft impractical ! Quid money laundering, jobs in the security sector, Quid the ‘black’ economy or “anti terrorist” regulations ? • http://www.hitachi.co.jp/Prod/mu-chip ….. Biannual information on Euro counterfeiting http://www.ecb.int/press/03/pr030123_1en.htm • cf RFID : Radio Frequency Identification and Smart Dust - whose conception do not yet posit the existence of IPv6 • Quid influence upon the proposed (Cyber) Crime Task Force ? • Solutions combining emerging technologies and the search for security are coming up with ‘original’ ideas, however, these so far seem to ignore the existence of unlimited IP addresses.

23. Questions Macroeconomic Impacts on Civil Society Interface planning • There are,or should be, more questions l than easy answers in respect of IPv6 Ideployment. This is normal during I initial stages of fundamental change. l I Given the progressive integration of l ‘on-line’and ‘off-line’, of ‘virtual’ & ‘real’ l in tomorrow’s societal interfaces, any l corporate profitability model will be l impacted by fundamental paradigm shifts enabled by, but not due to, IPv6 architecture.__ ?

24. IPv6 & Privacy • “9/11” provided a good excuse or coat peg to ‘justify’ statutory controls on, or limitation of privacy space. The IETF has tried to assure that a permanent connection does not automatically mean a permanent IPv6 IP address identifiable by third parties. Final Internet architecture definitions may need monitoring for an equitable privacy/security balance. • RFC http://rfc3041.x42.com/ • Privacy Extensions for Stateless Address Autoconfiguration in IPv6 In the context of any transnational legal network framework, legislators may have problems reconciling privacy protection, and security ‘imperatives’ - both in respect of the Internet and of Sovereign States. This concern is extended to the lack of coherency between on-line et off-line legislation, and that between private Sector and end-user expectations. Trends towards a new profession of ‘privacy’ management may be worth exploring. N.B. Comments on privacy in here are those of the author and do not incur the responsibilityof the IPv6T F.

25. Societal Implications .. on Private Sector • Theoretically SPAM Viruses & Fraud could be traced This would restore public opinion and corporate confidence in online commerce compared to today when over 8 million credit card numbers are officially estimated to have been pirated in the U.S. • Financial flow transfers encouraged by infinite extended proximity could induce significant work force redeployment necessitating strategic reassessments of employment policy planning. • Business cycles will accelerate especially where E commerce, gaming etc. are enhanced by WiFi RFID and high, cheap bandwidth facility for wearables.

26. Priorities for awareness of and among stakeholders • IPv6 Evaluation of Societal Impacts • Health, Care for the Elderly and Handicapped • New dimensions for (distance) Education • Internet Governance, legislative harmonisation • Top level Certification Authorities • Archive and Information Integrity, Equal access. • New Best Standards evaluation criteria • New content management and integration • Security and Privacy Protection • Innovation and Business Intelligence awareness • Flexibility, Response Teams, and informed planning • Common awareness platform encouraging responsible interfacing among Civil Society actors

27. IPv6 : Societal ImpactGrowing Awareness • Japan IPv6 plan: $50m p.a. for 10 years. • February 2002 European Commission : Note to EU Governments confirming priority status for IPv6 migration. 300M E 6th FP. • June 2002 The Council of Europe reiterates this priority and ‘invites the Commission to evaluate the social impact on society, on the citizen and on private businesses of IPv6 implementation’ • http://ue.eu.int/pressData/fr/trans/71180.pdf November 2002 The explicit priority of IPv6 for France appeared in a speech by the French Prime Minister. February 2003 : Full support for IPv6 in the UNESCO NGO report for WSIS, and IPv6 TF speaking invitation at Geneva WSIS PrepComm. April: Tunis IPv6 Summit

28. GROWING AWARENESS : IPv6 & Health • e.g. Reexamine Health priorities to integrate IPv6 given innovative Nano, Biotech convergencies. • QUID : Distance diagnosis of illness or epizooties, in real time and distance, significantly improving standards of living. http://www.adsx.comVERICHIP • QUID : Distance livestock tracing & satellite monitoring of disease patterns http://www.cnes.fr QUID : The impact of technolgical innovation under an IPv6 architecture on hospital renovation, medical staff training, distance diagnostics or real time molecule dispensation, in case of disabilities or the aged. Life expectancy could increase significantly over current budgetary expectations. • QUID : AIDS, Cancer, Malaria, SARS … CDC ? • QUID : Government Policies : Health training, Infrastructure investments, pensions ?

29. Awareness Growing IPv6 :Télé activities & Education…. Distance education, lifelong learning, and tele activities will undergo profound changes caused by greater convergency between the Individual and the Information Society. This concerns everyone. Some countries, especially the less developped, may leapfrog bottlenecks caused by Private Sector vested interests by depreciating obsolete infrastructures and investing in break technologies which themselves challenge former busines models. NEVERTHELESS : Both political motivation, guidance, AND enough IPv6address space are needed to ensure individual ‘empowerment’ while, at the same time, offering profitable opportunities for the private sector.

30. Growing Awareness :Privacy & Security. • There is no complete Internet Security with IPv4. Security mandated for IPv6 will probably be scrutinised by legal authorities attentive to privacy data protection requirements – though definitions for this may undergo substantial change with Mpeg 21 and Palladium. New firewalls could enhance end-to-end security. The disappearance of NATs will facilitate VPN security. • Arbitrages between, ‘security’ and ‘privacy’ could accentuate scrutiny or database interconnection offering ‘Big Browser’ disproportionate powers.  Also, without explicitly mentionning Cybercrime, some projects may have underestimated the impact of IPv6 architecture on tomorrow’s networks .

31. Strategic Stakes : Top level C.A. Control • According to Vint Cerf ISOC created within the initial design of the root server of the Internet a root key Certification Authority around 20 years ago. This remains available – in theory – to sign Top Level Certification Authorities. • The “key” strategic stakes seem rather to lock into control of top level certification authorities than PKI : in other words database interconnection and privacy protection………………. • ‘WHOcould know WHAT about EVERYTHING ?’

32. IPv6 and French Presidential Priorities Road Security : Transport becomes a communication interface 1) WLANIf all seat belts are not in place stop the motor from being switched on.Block mobile telephones reception/emission if the motor is on. 3)Real time tracing or motor blockage in case of theft or unauthorized usage 3)Transport infrastructures linked by WLAN to track speeding or verify accident information. 4)Onboard Electronics WLAN to ensure mechanical safety maintenance. Disabilitiés and Health, Cancer : • Subcuteneous stimulatory sensorial or motor micro-chips. • Distance activities and societal insertion • Real time health diagnosis, monitoring or assistance. • Declining costs for Social Security. Security: Microchips interfacing between an individual’s skin and his firearm already exist. No gun could be fired unless it was registered to a biometrically identified unique individual.What happens to crime – and to personal privacy – and to most societal models, if individual meta-tags were deemed possible both for objects and/or for the individual ?

33. Awareness Platform . CONVERGENCIES .. • There is too little transversal networking between Civil Society actors and their own individual agendas, many of which will be profoundly modified by an IPv6 architecture. A radically new Information Society is being born before our very eyes. This holds true for Private Sector stakeholders too. Few strategic issues have been integrated or even identified. • Where awareness exists, it is technically oriented. This needs correcting to avoid a repetition of the errors of the past. • A coherent overview seems needed to grow awareness among all stakeholders – especially at government levels – so that the societal, political and economic impacts of IPv6 integration be planned in advance rather than imposing themselves in a crisis environment. Profitability of many sectors of the economy will be challenged and new models will emerge. The IMPORTANCE of a permanent IPv6 platform uniting all stakeholdersMUST not be underestimated. See UNESCO NGO report for the WSIS in February 2003http://wsisforum.unesco.org

34. WorldSummit on the Information Society : IPv6 • http://www.itu.int/wsis The World Summit on the Information Society http://www.itu.int/wsis/docs/res-56-183-e.pdf seeks to grow awareness about Information Society challenges among Private Sector, Public Sector, UN System leaders, Civil Society representatives and Heads of State • http://www.geneva2003.org • http://www.itu.int/wsis/about/about_WhatIsWsis.html • The WSIS Civil Society Co-ordination sent the following note to the IPv6 Task Force on the eve of its Brussels meeting ./. ‘The Executive Secretariat of the WSISunderstands the societal implications of the IPV6 migrations. We are interested in exploring the creation of an interface between the IPv6 Task force and the Summit. In order to grow awareness of these matters among all stakeholders participating in the Summit process we welcome a meeting facilitating a joint initiative.‘ 11 September 2002

35. LINKS URL • IPv6 TASK FORCE http://www.ipv6tf.org • IPv6 Forum http://www.ipv6forum.com • IRCAM Mpeg 7 21 X509(3) http://www.ircam.fr/cuidad • Japan IPv6 Promotion Council http://v6pc.jp/library/tasks-e.html • ISOC Brief 0603 http://www.isoc.org/briefings/014/index.html • World Summit for the Information Society http://www.itu.int/wsis • European Commission April 2003 : • Information SocietyTechnologies http://www.cordis.lu/ist/m/ipv6.htm • Council of Europe 18 June 2002 p28 Societal Impact IPv6 • http://ue.eu.int/pressData/en/trans/71180.pdf • E 2005 Action htttp://europa.eu.int/information_society/eeurope/news • _library/documents/eeurope2005/eeurope2005_en.pdf

36. Tomorrow’s Internet : a win / win interface between Innovation and the Citizen At a time of economic uncertainty whose causes have been partially, or conveniently, masked by events in Iraq, many have become blasé towards significant innovations affecting scientific disciplines and the convergence they catalyze. The innovative diversity currently combining to create a new (bio) Information Society appears too often to be taken for granted, perceived to be spontaneously integrated within extensible societies or an INTEL silicon wafer. The truth lies elsewhere, in a real time structurally self perpetuating societal metamorphosiswhose acceleration may soon upset the plans of politicians and economists as unaware of their existence as of their societal impacts beyond a 4 letter word often dismissed as being of a too technical nature - IPv6 Emerging awareness of the importance of the societal dimension of the potential impacts of the IPv6 deployment should not be ignored by those who seek to look forward, even though much of what is being discussed here is not yet on many radar screens.

37. Tomorrow’s Internet : a win / win interface between Innovation and the Citizen • In looking ahead towards and beyond European Union enlargement, we should be aware of the spin off effects of IPv6 deployment for innovations - in the widest sense of the term - integrated into the ubiquitous mobile dimensions of tomorrow’s world. • Although the architecture of the Internet is, and should remain, neutral, application layers are not neutral. Thus both business plans and innovation strategies should anticipate mobile environments with > 12 megabit bandwidth – the current Japanese level available at 12$ per month. Despite resistance from former monopoly operators, seemless and transparent integration willoccur faster than most anticipate – but doubtless for different reasons.

38. Tomorrow’s Internet : a win / win interface between Innovation and the Citizen • Today’s message has focalized on the need to rethink relationships between the environments of today and tomorrow. The latter will increasingly exercise influence “outside” current business models and interfaces. • The inherent fragility of the system may have been underestimated. A wider grasp of IPv6 socio-economic implications could help redefine strategic priorities. Culture shock induced by tomorrow’s world will offer endless opportunities for innovation, new springboards for invention - but will also exert pressures outside the working experience of those expected to handle medium and long term planning. A dynamic learning process will probably be more useful than the transposition of today’s static environment upon tomorrows increasingly mobile challenges.

39. Innovation Convergency pointers for Civil Society This essay seeks to provide guidance on the challenges and opportunities for sustained Civil Society community building despite the absence of definitive roadmaps and despite infrastructure, bandwidth or ‘divide’ handicaps. Hopefully this meeting will encourage reflexion on how technological convergencies can influences societal interactions as we “progress” from traditional static environments to interactive multi-dimensional dynamics. Although there is litte available non technical material on IPv6 societal impacts available on the Internet, the importance of this issue to all projects of whatever nature should not be underestimated. This is a cross-cultural, transdisciplinary area where the effective applications have yet to surface, mainly because most specialists in the various emerging technologies are unaware of IPv6 and because most politicians WISH NOT TO KNOW.

40. IPv6 and Private Sector anticipation of Public Sector Initiatives : Conclusion • Though the Conference aims at supporting a stable democratic society in the region despite the negative factors common to all the CIS countries - unstable economic growth, low living standards, it may be found appropriate to advocate a politically incorrect course of action - that of a top down win/win shared awareness initiative where Civil Society educates reluctant public sector authorities before the spiral of change accelerates too fast. • Although one agrees that it is crucial to effectively use global resources such as rapidly developing information and communication technologies as the basis for a quantum improvement in the quality of life of ordinary people - their overall economic and social situation – this cannot be done without taking the impacts of IPv6 into account.

41. and Public and Private Sector Interaction : Conclusion II • This presentation has sought to outline some strategic medium term implications of the IPv6 environment • Insufficient awareness of the challenges to traditional economic models posed by IPv6 integration reduces reliable medium and long term economic visibility – without which all planning is fragile. This is especially relevant to Civil Society. • CAVEAT : with insufficiently informed legislative frameworks and contradictions between online and offline and intra and international laws, neither visibility nor social stability can be guaranteed. • Product cycle acceleration is not risk free. Strategic Investment in business intelligence is indispensable. • The recent U.S. DoD decision to advance support IPv6 to end 2003 should stop civil society and European complacency. China, Japan and Korea will react rapidly on a top down model, while the US will probably be selectively opportunistic