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ATHENA 09. Future Threats, Dangers and Risks seen by a neutral State. Colonel Peter Schneider, 01.10.09. Classic military threats New military risks and threats Non-military dangers and risks. Air/Land Battle in Europe. KFOR, Sarajevo HQ, Skopje HQ. Iraq NTM-I. ACTIVE ENDEAVOUR.
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ATHENA 09 Future Threats, Dangers and Risks seen by a neutral State Colonel Peter Schneider, 01.10.09
Classic military threats • New military risks and threats • Non-military dangers and risks
Air/Land Battle in Europe
KFOR, Sarajevo HQ, Skopje HQ Iraq NTM-I ACTIVE ENDEAVOUR Allied Protector ISAF EUBAM EUMM Georgia EUPOL AFGHANISTAN EUFOR-ALTHEA, EUPM BiH EU BAM Rafah EULEX KOSOVO EUPOL COPPS EU SSR Guinea-Bissau EUJUST LEX Iraq EUSEC DR CONGO EU NAVFOR Somalia EUPOL DR CONGO
8 6 4 2 2050 1600 1900 1950 2000 1800
% 100 bio 8 85 % 100 8 6 80 4 33 2 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000
Energy consumption 33.8% 27.2% 5.4% 22.6% 11.0%
< 0.1 % 0.1 – 0.5 % 0.5 – 1 % 1 – 5 % 5 – 15 % 15 – 34 % % Adults with HIV Infection (33 - 46 million) Pandemic
Male Female 75+ 60-74 45-59 30-44 15-29 0-14 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 [%] [%] Population Age Distribution: Germany 2050
Aging Population • Lower Birthrates • Elder Parents • Taxes • Birthrates • Immigration