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C. Carnevale , G. Finzi , A. Pederzoli , P. Thunis , E. Pisoni , M. Volta

Applying the DELTA-FAIRMODE tool to support AQD: the validation of the TCAM Chemical Transport Model. C. Carnevale , G. Finzi , A. Pederzoli , P. Thunis , E. Pisoni , M. Volta. Outline. Methodology TCAM model Results Conclusions. MPC definition. MODEL PERFORMANCE CRITERIA (MPC):

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C. Carnevale , G. Finzi , A. Pederzoli , P. Thunis , E. Pisoni , M. Volta

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  1. Applying the DELTA-FAIRMODE tool to support AQD: the validation of the TCAM Chemical Transport Model C. Carnevale, G. Finzi, A. Pederzoli, P. Thunis, E. Pisoni, M. Volta

  2. Outline • Methodology • TCAM model • Results • Conclusions

  3. MPC definition MODEL PERFORMANCE CRITERIA (MPC): “minimum levelofqualityto be achieved by a model for policy use” (Boylan and Russell, 2006)

  4. Modelevaluation: MainStatisticalIndicators

  5. Model Performance Criteria

  6. ModelingSetup • Measures: 50 monitoring sites (suburban, urban and rural background) • Model: TCAM • Year:2005 • Domain resolution:6x6km2 (POMI exercise) • Pollutants: O3 – PM10

  7. TCAM: Transport and Depostion Module • Eulerian 3D model • Terrain-following coordinate system • HorizontalTransportModule: Chapeau Function + ForesterFilter • Vertical TransportModule: Crank-Nicholsonhybrid solver based on the verticaldiffusivitycoefficient • DepositionModule: Dry/Wet • Gas Chemistry: SAPRC 97 (ModifiedVersion) • Aerosol: • ChemicalSpecies: 21 (12 inorganics) • SizeClasses: 10 (from 0.01 mm to 50 mm) • Thermodynamicmodule: ISORROPIA

  8. Target diagram: PM10 dailymean • Systematicerror: Bias <0 (underestimation) • 69% ofsitesrespect the MPCRMSE

  9. Issue: What data tobeused? (1/3) • Selecting a subset of station? • Limitednumberofstations • Differentregimes • Selecting a subset of data foreachstations? • Consideringonly the X%of the best data (X-thpercentiles)

  10. Issue: What data tobeused? (2/3) 90% Stations 90% Data

  11. Issue: What data tobeused? (3/3) Default Setup 85% Data 90% Data 80% Data

  12. On the meaningof “good”… • 90% of station • inside the • “acceptanceregion” • Good • VeryGood • Excellent

  13. Target Plot: O3 8hmax Worsethan PM10? Similartoother POMI model O3 NO2, PM10 k=1.44 k=2

  14. Issue: coveragefactor k value? k=1.44 k=1.75 k=2.00 Similarto PM10

  15. Whereusing Delta? GAMES: Gas Aerosol ModellingEvaluation System Emission inventories Land use Topography Prognostic output PROMETEO Temporal Profiles POEM-PM 3D wind and temperature fields Turbolence and Boundary Layer parameters Emission Fields Boundary and Initial condition BOUNDY TCAM VOC speciation Profiles PM size and chemical speciation Profiles 3D concentration fields Continental scale model output Output

  16. MQO extension to meteorology: WS • WS • Uncertainty constant (0.5 m/s) below 5m/s (WMO) • Uncertainty proportional to WS (10%) above 5m/s (WMO) • Rounding (to integer) effects accounted for

  17. MQO extension to meteorology: TEMP • TEMP • Instrument uncertainty on test-bank  0.1K • Instrument uncertainty in the field  0.5-0.6K • Uncertainty including meteo-housing structure  1K

  18. Conclusions & Discussions • About Delta tool • Veryvaluabletoolfor the model (ofdifferenttype…) validation/comparison • Continuouslyimproving/generalizing (Thanks!!!) • About MPC • Issue1: Consideringall the data? • Issue2: Free paramenters (k) in the computationof U? • About TCAM • Quiteinteresting and goodperformances • PM10: Verygood • O3: comparabletoothermodel • Are the performancesgoodenough? 90%-90% ??

  19. Thank you

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