Methodological changes in Austria’s balance of payments

1. Methodological changes in Austria’s balance of payments Impact on trade ingoods and services statistics Patricia Walter Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Balance of Payments Division September 2007

2. Agenda • A new balance of payments system: motivation and concepts • Cooperation with Statistics Austria • New survey on trade in services • First results • Future Outlook

3. A new balance of payments system: Motivation • Until 2006, compilation of the Austrian balance of payments via a MFI based settlement system • Complemented by surveys for the financial account • Compilation of trade in services completely settlement based, except for travel • Growing negative effects on data quality and compilation efficiency

4. A new balance of payments system: Motivation • Common currency in the Euro area blurres the distinction between national and foreign transactions • Travel item: new survey based compilation already introduced with the introduction of the Euro • Step wise development of a single Euro payments area diminishes the useability of payments for statistical purposes • Intra-company settlement systems (cash centres) loosen the connection between payments and transactions, concerning volumes as well as regional structures

5. A new balance of payments system: Concepts • In January 2006, OeNB switched to a direct reporting system • From this key date onwards • No settlement data have been available any more • Complete data collection substituted by surveys • Main components • Sample design varies with type of transaction and industrial sector • Reporting population consists of about 7.000 economic entities, from these about 5.000 report on trade in services • Legal basis attributes the central bank the same status as to the NSI, giving access to registers and administrative data

6. A new balance of payments system: motivation and concepts • Cooperation with Statistics Austria • New survey on trade in services • First results • Future Outlook

7. Cooperation with Statistics Austria • Basic agreement on cooperation between OeNB and NSI, Statistics Austria • Concentration on the respective expertise • Statistics Austria in real economies and the OeNB in financial markets • „Cooperation framework agreement“, yardstick „memorandum of understanding“ between ECB and EUROSTAT • Concrete tasks are laid down in service provider contracts like for compiling exports and imports of services • Statistics Austria collects data from non financial companies • OeNB from insurance companies and banks • Synergies are gained within the scope of external statistics • Including the harmonization with National Accounts

8. Cooperation with Statistics Austria

9. Cooperation with Statistics Austria

10. Cooperation with Statistics Austria

11. A new balance of payments system: motivation and concepts • Cooperation with Statistics Austria • New survey on trade in services • First results • Future Outlook

12. New survey on trade in services: population analysis • Concentration survey for identifying the statistical population • Carried out within the scope of Austria‘s structural business survey 2003 (EG, EURATOM no. 58/97) • Covered 32,247 out of 266,258 Austrian business units • Service industry: different thresholds in turnover between € 750.000 and 1,5 Mio. • Manufacturing industry: threshold in number of employees > 20 • Not included i.a. • Financial corporations • Public and private services (education, health, welfare; ) • Gap estimates • Settlement data for unit-non-response • Imputation of remaining reporting deficits (MEDIAN, turnover and sector classes) • Estimates for businesses below survey thresholds (Regression, services exports and imports to turnover)

13. New survey on trade in services: population analysis

14. New survey on trade in services: survey design • Thresholds depending on type of industrial sector • € 200,000 or 50,000 for services exports as well as imports per year • Two different reporting concepts • Quarterly report on services exports and imports regarding partner countries and classification of services • Quarterly report on services exports and imports regarding partner countries together with yearly report on the classification of services

15. New survey on trade in services: survey design • Transportation • Travel • Communication services • Construction services • Insurance services • Financial services • Computer and information services • Royalties and licence fees • Other business services • Personal, cultural and recreational services • Government Services, n.i.e. • Employment income, debet • Current transfers

16. New survey on trade in services: changes in concepts • Transportation: cif/fob correction

17. New survey on trade in services: changes in concepts • Insurance services • Calculation of insurance service charge, for exports and imports • Gross premium – gross claim = net premium per country and period • (gross premium – gross claim)/gross premium = x[%] long-term • Gross premium * x% = insurance service charge per country and period • Database harmonized with Financial Market Authority (EU regulation no. 1225/1999 to 1228/1999) • Mirror Data are available for imports

18. New survey on trade in services: changes in concepts • Financial services • Completely corrected for financial derivatives • Government services • Inclusion of compensation of employees by international organizations

19. New compilation of the travel item • Methodological changes I • Compilation until 2006: statistics of overnight stays and guest interviews, settlement data • Since 2006: hyprid type of compilation • New seasonality due to change of time of recording: from time of settlement to travel • Methodological changes II • Distinction between different components • Inclusion of expenditures from seasonal workers and students • Exclusion of payments from foreign and illegal workers • Correction for national components, especially for package tours

20. A new balance of payments system: motivation and concepts • Cooperation with Statistics Austria • New survey on trade in services • First results • Future Outlook

21. First results: data and recalculations • Table 1 • First results for 2006 and provisional recalculations for 2005

22. First Results: methodological effects 2005 2006

23. First Results: methodological effects 2005 2006

24. First Results: methodological effects 2005 2006

25. First Results: methodological effects 2005 2006

26. First Results: methodological effects 2005 2006

27. First Results: methodological effects 2005 2006

28. First Results: methodological effects 2005 2006

29. First Results: methodological effects 2005 2006

30. First Results: structural findings

31. First Results: structural findings

32. First Results: structural findings

33. First Results: structural findings

34. First Results: structural findings

35. First Results: structural findings

36. A new balance of payments system: motivation and concepts • Cooperation with Statistics Austria • New survey on trade in services • First results • Future Outlook

37. Future outlook • Step wise recalculation of historic data back to 1995(forthcoming year end 2007) • Revision of the reporting population for the survey on trade in services • Recurrent concentration survey on the basis of Austria‘s structural business survey • Cooperation with the Statistics Department of the Austrian Chamber of Commerce • Step wise realization of FATS • Connection of trade in services data with structural business statistics • Survey among households on imports of services