Is STATS 101 Prepared for the CC Stats Prepared Student?

1. Is STATS 101 Prepared for the CC Stats Prepared Student? Jerry Moreno emeritus Dept. of Mathematics and Computer Science John Carroll University moreno@jcu.edu 216-397-4681

2. AGENDA Status of STATS 101: According to The Cobb Report of 1993 According to the ASA GAISE College Report of 2005 The CC Statistically Literate Student k-12 Content and Practice Standards for ALL students Is STATS 101 prepared for the CC Student? Comparison of the two

3. STATUS of STATS 101 • The Cobb Report of 1993 www.amstat.org/publications/jse/v1n1/cobb.html • The need for curricular resources in statistics is acute. • Help is on the way – 12 NSF-funded projects. • The Hogg Workshop • Analyze data; do projects; use computers; lecture less,teach more. • www.amstat.org/publications/jse/v1n1/cobb.supp.hogg.html • A course called CHANCE • Other ten – promote active learning • Use data sets; hands-on activities; computer simulations.

4. STATUS of STATS 101…The Cobb Report cont. • The Cobb Report suggests rethinking the standard format: • Intro Stats need not be taught as a survey course. • A first course need not be organized by statistical topic. • A first course need not present topics in the standard order. • A course need not rely on lectures to present the material.

5. STATUS of STATS 101 • ASA GAISE College Report (2005)…Garfield et alwww.amstat.org/education/gaise/index.cfm • Many changes have occurred since the Cobb Report. • Many statisticians have become involved in the reform movement in statistical education aimed at the teaching of STATS 101. • The reform is described by changes in • Content (more data analysis, less probability) • Pedagogy (fewer lectures, more active learning) • Technology (for data analysis and simulations) • Today’s goals focus more on conceptual understanding and attainment of statistical literacy and thinking, and less on learning a set of tools and procedures.

6. STATUS of STATS 101…ASA GAISE College Report cont.Re: The desired result of STATS 101 • To produce statistically educated students • Who become statistically literate. • Who develop the ability to think statistically. • Learning Goals (22…here are a few) • Students should believe and understand why: • Random sampling allows results of surveys and experiments to be extended to the population from which the sample was taken. • Random assignment in comparative experiments allows cause-and-effect conclusions to be drawn. • Students should recognize: • Common sources of bias in surveys and experiments.

7. STATUS of STATS 101…ASA GAISE College Report cont. • Students should understand the parts of the process through which statistics works to answer questions, namely: • How to obtain or generate data. • How to graph the data. • How to interpret numerical summaries and graphical data displays. • How to make appropriate use of statistical inference. • How to communicate the results of a statistical analysis in context. • Students should understand the basic ideas of statistical inference, including: • The concept of sampling distribution, statistical significance including significance levels and p-values. • The concept of confidence interval, margin of error.

8. STATUS of STATS 101…ASA GAISE College Report cont.Re: The desired components of STATS 101 • Recommendations • Emphasize statistical literacy and develop statistical thinking. • Use real data. • Stress conceptual understanding, rather than mere knowledge of procedures. • Foster active learning in the classroom. • Use technology for developing concepts and analyzing data. • Use assessments to improve and evaluate student learning.

9. Very Brief Background Info on the Common Core State Standards (CCSS or CC)www.corestandards.org • CC released 6/2/10: • National Governors Association Center for Best Practices (NGA Center) • Council of Chief State School Officers (CCSSO) • 42 states have adopted the CC Standards • Not AK, MN, MT, ND, NE, TX, VA, WA • Two Assessment Consortia (2014-15) • PARCC (Partnership for Assessment of Readiness for College and Careers) • SBAC (SMARTER Balanced Assessment Consortium)

10. Very Brief Background Info on the Common Core State Standards (CCSS or CC)…cont. • 8 Mathematical Practices Standards • Describe “habits of mind” • Foster reasoning and sense-making in mathematics • Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them. • Reason abstractly and quantitatively. • Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others. • Model with mathematics. • Use appropriate tools strategically. • Attend to precision. • Look for and make use of structure. • Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning.

11. Very Brief Background Info on the Common Core State Standards (CCSS or CC)…cont. • Mathematical Content Standards • Internationally benchmarked • Solve “mile-wide inch-deep” • Require conceptual understanding and procedural fluency • Organization • K-8: Domains, Clusters, Standards by grade level • HS: Conceptual Categories, Clusters, Standards • Re: Statistics and Probability • K-5 Domain: Measurement and Data • 6-8 Domain: Statistics and Probability • HS Conceptual Category: Statistics and Probability

12. What will the CC Student have mastered in Statistics and Probability through CC k-12?www.corestandards.org • Grades K-5 Domain: Measurement and Data • Grade K: Classify objects into given categories; count the number of objects in each category; sort by count. • Grade 1: Organize, represent, and interpret data with up to three categories. • Grade 2: Make line plot for measurement data; picture and bar graphs for up to four categories. • Grade 3: Make bar graph in which each square represents k subjects; line plot for halves, quarters. • Grade 4: Make line plot for fractions; interpret largest minus smallest. • Grade 5: Redistribute total amount into k equal amounts.

13. ASIDE • Let’s look at that last Standard in Grade 5. Here is my interpretation that to my mind leads to the concept of “fair share” mean. • Grade 5: Redistribute total amount into k equal amounts. • Here is the actual Standard: “Represent and interpret data. • Make a line plot to display a data set of measurements in fractions of a unit (1/2, 1/4, 1/8). Use operations on fractions for this grade to solve problems involving information presented in line plots. For example, given different measurements of liquid in identical beakers, find the amount of liquid each beaker would contain if the total amount in all the beakers were redistributed equally.” So, for all intents and purposes, our CC students know very little about statistics through grades k-5. Whatever is in the Standards is there more or less to motivate a mathematics concept.

14. What will the CC Student have mastered in Statistics and Probability through CC k-12? cont. • Grade 6 Domain: Statistics and Probability - Cluster: Develop understanding of statistical variability. • Recognize a statistical question as one that anticipates variability in the data related to the question and accounts for it in the answers. • Understand that a set of data collected to answer a statistical question has a distribution which can be described by its center, spread, and overall shape. • Recognize that a measure of center for a numerical data set summarizes all of its values with a single number, while a measure of variation describes how its values vary with a single number. - Cluster: Summarize and describe distributions. 4. Display numerical data in plots on a number including dot plots, histograms, and box plots. 5. Summarize numerical data sets in relation to their context. • Center (median, mean) • Variability (IQR, MAD)

15. Time out: GAISE k-12www.amstat.org/education/gaise/index.cfm The statistical process is a problem solving process consisting of four components: • Formulate a question that can answered by data. • Design and implement a plan to collect data. • Analyze the data by graphical and numerical methods. • Interpret the analysis in the context of the original question.

16. What will the CC Student have mastered in Statistics and Probability through CC k-12? cont. • Grade 7 Domain: Statistics and Probability - Cluster: Use random sampling to draw inferences about a population. • Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a population by examining a representative sample from it. • Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. - Cluster: Draw informal inferences about two populations. 3. Informally assess the degree of visual overlap of two numerical data distributions with similar variabilities, measuring the difference between the centers by expressing it as a measure of variability. 4. Use measures of center and measures of variability for numerical data from random samples to draw informal comparative inferences about two populations.

17. What will the CC Student have mastered in Statistics and Probability through CC k-12? cont. • Grade 7 Domain: Statistics and Probability cont. Cluster: Investigate chance processes and develop, use, and evaluate probability models. 5. Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. 6. Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. 7. Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. a. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes and use the model to determine probabilities of events. b. Develop a probability model by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.

18. What will the CC Student have mastered in Statistics and Probability through CC k-12? cont. • Grade 7 Domain: Statistics and Probability cont. Cluster: Investigate chance processes and develop, use, and evaluate probability models. cont. 8. Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. a. Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs. b. Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. c. Design and use a simulation to generate frequencies for compound events.

19. What will the CC Student have mastered in Statistics and Probability through CC k-12? cont. • Grade 8 Domain: Statistics and Probability • Cluster: Investigate patterns of association in bivariate data. • Construct and interpret scatter plots for bivariate measurement data to investigate patterns of association between two quantities. Describe patterns such as clustering, outliers, positive or negative association, linear association, and nonlinear association. • Know that straight lines are widely used to model relationships between two quantitative variables. For scatter plots that suggest a linear association, informally fit a straight line, and informally assess the model fit by judging the closeness of the data points to the line. • Use the equation of a linear model to solve problems in the context of bivariate measurement data, interpreting the slope and intercept. • Understand that patterns of association can also be seen in bivariate categorical data by displaying frequencies and relative frequencies in a two-way table. Construct and interpret.

20. What will the CC Student have mastered in Statistics and Probability through CC k-12? cont. • Grade HS Conceptual Category : Statistics and Probability • Domain: Interpreting Categorical and Quantitative data • Cluster: Summarize, represent, and interpret data on a single count or measurement variable. • Cluster: Summarize, represent, and interpret data two categorical and quantitative variables. • Cluster: Interpret linear models. • Domain: Making Inferences and Justifying Conclusions • Cluster: Understand and evaluate random processes underlying statistical experiments. • Cluster: Make inferences and justify conclusion from sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies.

21. What will the CC Student have mastered in Statistics and Probability through CC k-12? cont. • Grade HS Conceptual Category : Statistics and Probability • Cluster: Make inferences and justify conclusion from sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies. • 3. Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each. • 4. Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean or proportion; develop a margin of error through the use of simulation models for random sampling. • 5. Use data from a randomized experiment to compare two treatments; use simulations to decide if differences between parameters are significant. • 6. Evaluate reports based on data.

22. What will the CC Student have mastered in Statistics and Probability through CC k-12? cont. • Grade HS: Statistics and Probability Conceptual Category cont. • Domain: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability • Cluster: Understand independence and conditional probability and use them to interpret data. • Cluster: Use the rules of probability to compute probabilities of compound events in a uniform probability model. CONNECTIONS TO FUNCTIONS and MODELING: Functions may be used to describe data; if the data suggest a linear relationship, the relationship can be modeled with a regression line, and its strength and direction can be expressed through a correlation coefficient.

23. The Connection/ChallengeWill Stats 101 be prepared for the stats-prepared CC student? Summary of what the CC student will have mastered – both conceptually (interpretation) and by formula (with technology): • Data analysis/Statistics: • The understanding of statistical variability. • The GAISE statistical process four-step model (but maybe not by name). • Graphs (pie, bar; dot, hist, box; scatter, time). • Characterizing numerical distributions: • Measures of center (mode, median, mean – as “fair share” and balance). • Measures of spread (range, IQR, MAD, standard deviation). • Shape (symmetric, skewed, outliers). • Correlation (not causal), coefficient r (with technology). • Regression – linear (median-median?, least squares) with residuals; quadratic, exponential fitting to data. • Inferences from sample surveys, observational studies, experiments. • Use of simulation for inferential or estimation purposes in one mean, one proportion, two means.

24. The Connection/ChallengeWill Stats 101 be prepared for the stats-prepared CC student?cont. • Probability • Normal distribution calculation of probabilities. • Sample space; simple and compound events. Addition rule. • Independent events; conditional probability; extensive use of two-way tables. • Aside: There is more probability but not for ALL students. The topics include the multiplication rule; permutations and combinations; random variable; expected value; theoretical probability distributions (e.g., two rolls of a fair die); probability distribution for empirical probabilities; probability distribution with weighted outcomes (e.g., payoffs); analysis of decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., “pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game.”)

25. The Connection/Challenge…cont.

26. Will Stats 101 be prepared for the stats-prepared CC student? • I doubt that the current Stats 101 would excite CC students very much. They have mastered basically all of the Stats 101 material. They have a good understanding of decision-making and the inferential process through randomization procedures rather than Normal theory ones, but who needs the t-test anyway? (See George Cobb, USCOTS 2005). So, I ask you, if in a few years, you have a class of such CC students, and you were to give them the class that you now teach, will they be bored in your class repeating material that they already know? What will they learn that they have not heretofore experienced? Knowing what they know, how would you change your presentation to give a refresher to CC material without teaching it anew? What topics would you introduce? Normal theory inference? Risk analysis? Design of Experiments? Multiple Regression?

27. Will Stats 101 be prepared for the stats-prepared CC student?In My Ideal World: • The CC curriculum lives up to its touted goal of mastery. • All students understand and use the GAISE four-step process. • That extensive professional development funds are found. • All STATS 101 courses improve to satisfy the GAISE College goals. • In 7 years or so, STATS 101 has been revised so to excite the CC student by: • Beginning the course with several real world projects/case studies that review/address/challenge the content and mathematical practice base of CC statistically literate students; • Continuing the course with topics such as: Normal theory inference; risk analysis; design of experiments/clinical trials; anova;…. • Textbook writers – get busy, you have 7 years to use your creativity so that we truly will have produced a statistically and quantitatively literate citizenry.

28. THANKS! Q&A