Our Nation’s Forestlands On the Edge

1. Our Nation’s ForestlandsOn the Edge Susan Stein USDA Forest Service FREMO Workshop, Annapolis September 18, 2007

2. Key Messages • America’s forests provide critical goods and services; • Housing development on and adjacent to our forestlands has implications for these services; • Forests on the Edge is using GIS to identify areas where rural forests may be impacted by development.

3. Who owns our forests?

6. Facts about U.S. Development • U.S. urban and developed land area increased by 25% (21.6 million acres) 1992 to 2003; • Nearly 1 million acres of private forest land converted annually, from 1992 to 1997; • Population growth of counties with national forest land is among the highest in the country; • US population is projected to increase by 135 million (to 420 million) by 2050.

7. Implications • Native wildlife • Water quality • Timber production • Fire risk and fire management costs • Recreational experiences

8. Forests and Wildlife • Many wildlife species rely on forested habitat; • Two-thirds of watersheds in the US contain at-risk species that depend upon private forest habitat; • Private forests are critical to many wide-ranging species

9. At-risk species • Federally designated under the Endangered Species Act (Endangered, Threatened, Candidate, Proposed), or • Designated as critically imperiled, imperiled, or vulnerable according to the NatureServe Conservation Status Ranking system

10. Forest Development and Wildlife • Birds: Neotropical migratory birds experience higher rates of predation and parasitism. • Mammalian carnivores: Large carnivore mortality increases with vehicle collisions and incidental poisoning. • Wetland amphibians: Species richness is reduced by loss of by forest and wetland cover on adjacent lands.

11. Forests and Water • 54% of US water supply originates on forests; • Almost 30% of water supply comes from private forests • Other water-related benefits • Protection from soil erosion • Filtration of pesticides

12. Forest Development and Water • Reduction of water quality and quantity • Reduced groundwater recharge; • Higher storm water run-off; • Higher sediment and nutrient levels;

13. Timber 92% of all timber harvested in the US is from private forests

14. Forest Development and Timber • Reduction of active management; • Decline of timber production; • Reduction of timber supply

15. Forests on the EdgeState and Private ForestryResearch and Development • Increase awareness of the importance of conserving America’s forests • Create tools for strategic planning

16. Housing density to increase on over 44 million acres of rural private forest (2000-2030)

17. Forestland Development in Washington Study Area,2000 and 2030

18. Factors related toForestland Development in Washington Watersheds • Large net migration from other states; • Declining stumpage values • Steady to declining harvests • High market for undeveloped land

19. Private Assets/Public Benefits Study To increase understanding of private forest contributions and how they might change • Contributions: Water Quality Timber Supply At-Risk Species Habitat Interior Forest • Change factors Fire Insect Pests/Disease Air Pollution Housing Development

21. Development Threats to At-Risk Species

22. Seneca Watershed • Highest ranked in terms of at-risk species and private forest development; • 66 Globally-ranked species associated with private forests;

23. Green Salamander(Aneidus aeneus) • Critically imperiled in South Carolina; • Populations have declined substantially since the 1970’s; • Only a few of the remaining populations are located on private lands.

26. National Forests on the Edge Goals: • Identify National Forests and Grasslands most likely to experience increased housing density along their borders

27. Analysis Three distances: • 0 to ½ mile • ½ to 3 miles • 3 to 10 miles

28. Housing to increase on over 21 million acres of rural lands within 10 miles of national forests and grasslands

29. Development adjacent to the Bitterroot National Forest 2000 and 2030

30. Key Messages • America’s forests provide critical goods and services; • Housing development on and adjacent to our forestlands has implications for these services; • Forests on the Edge is using GIS to identify areas where rural forests may be impacted by development.

31. Contact Information • Susan Stein – Cooperative Forestry Staff, Washington DC • (202) 205-0837 or sstein@fs.fed.us • Eric White – Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, OR • 541-750-7329; emwhite@fs.fed.us