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Forecasting Geopolitical Shifts: 25-Year Projections for 2011 and Beyond

Explore the complex geopolitical landscape in 2011 with shifting global powers, emerging threats, and the impact of technological advancements. Discover the evolving dynamics among nations and non-state actors.

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Forecasting Geopolitical Shifts: 25-Year Projections for 2011 and Beyond

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  1. The Geopolitical Landscape A 25 years Long-Range Projections February 2011

  2. It’s the year 2011. Whatdoes the geopoliticallandscape look like? • The returnofAsiatotheworldstage will definetheera. • The chasmbetweenthe United States and China couldwidenastheirdifferinginterestsbecomemorepronouced. • Emerging powers, evendemocraticones, will have separate agendas, making international integrationmoredifficult. • Cooperativeapproaches to an array of global issues, such as climate change, willbedifficult to accomplish. • Nonstateactors, rangingfromunofficialgoverningentities to terroristorganizations, willgrow, particularly in weak states. • The United States’ influence, diminished by the rise of other states and nonstateactors, willbefatallyundercut if the country does not curbitsunustainablereliance on debt. • Avoiding famine willdepend on a vast expansion of Africa’slagging agriculture productivity. • The resurgence of all the major religions willbemarked by post-Western versions of Christianity and a return of religious practice to secular Europe. • Half the world willexperience“fertility implosions,” thus leading to shortages of working-age populations, with only sub-Saharan Africa producing a surplus of working-age men. • The technologyrevolution, epitomized by the internet, willempowerboth people yearning for democracy and repressivetyrants. • The United States willremain the primary source of clear-eneryrevolution. • Those states that best educatetheircitizenswillwineconomiccompetition.

  3. Relative Certainites VS Likely Impact

  4. Relative Certainties VS Likely Impact

  5. Relative Certainties VS Likely Impact

  6. Relative Certainties VS Likely Impact

  7. Relative Certainties VS Likely Impact

  8. Key Uncertainties VS POTENTIAL cONSEQUENCES

  9. Key Uncertainties VS POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES

  10. Key Uncertainties VS POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES

  11. Key Uncertainties VS POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES

  12. Take-Home Messages • The Strategic Landscape has changed Considerably • Some improvements, several entrenched problems, and slow progress in some areas for the foreseeable Future. • Several Large scale threats to the Fundamental Stability of the International Security System

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