Regions and activities

1. Regions and activities Globalisation, accessibility & knowledge society

2. Technologic key drivers • ICT convergence (mobile phones, video & TV, Internet) will provide universal, just-in-time and user-friendly access to information, world-wide. • ICT will induce the substitution of low-added value personal travel, but also an exponential growth of flows and movements (persons, freight, resources, information), specially at global scale. • ICT will faciliate better management of scarce transport infrastructure and service optimisation • ICT will make more competitive and sustainable individual and customised communication modes (e.g. road clean vehicles in relation to rail)

3. Economic key drivers • Knowledge-based activities will generate economic growth with relatively less transport and communication demands. • Overall, economic growth will not be decoupled from transport growth. • Transport will become in central regions and large metropolis a constrain for developement. Many activities will internalise their transport demands not to loose productivity. • Differences on transport and communication endowment between regions will become less significant explaining economic gaps.

4. Social key drivers • Virtual relations and comunities will grow globally, additional to territorial-based communities. • For the first time, youngers will be more competent in more advanced technologies. The education system will become more open, and participatory. • More individualistic and heterogeneous ways of living and working will emerge. Public spaces and facilities (e.g. Transportation terminals) will become fundamental assets for social inclusion. • Time devoted to transport and communication will become better valorised, for social interaction: entretaining, leisure or work.

5. Spatial and Environmental key drivers • Creation of the European megalopolis. A continous urbanised areas with different density levels. • Total linear urbanisation of the Mediterranean coast. North-south migration. • Concentration of more advanced activities in leading areas, and exclusive zones. Emergence of functionally closed zones. • Internalisation of environmental impacts within urbanisation processes (emissions, accidents...)

6. Transport key drivers • Road will reach 77% passangers i 55% freigh. • Air passanger transport will double • Maritime transport will grow 4% each year (up to 15% for conteiners). • Rail will keep 8% freight and 5% passengers • Time devoted to transport and communication will become better valorised, for social interaction: entretaining, leisure or work.

7. Territorial key drivers • Most regions become funcional metropolitan areas • Reinforcement of cross-border regions. • Economic gaps will be reduced at national and regional level. Important gaps will remain at urban level. • West-East integration will be faster than expected • Increasing tensions between the north and south of the Mediterranean.

8. Political key drivers • ICT will induce more participatory and well-informed decision-making processes. • More investment in infrastructure is achieved through Public Private Partnerships. • New taxation will tend to be applied based on environmental criteria (Road pricing achieved by using satelite and other positioning technologies...) • EU policies redefined by territories (Coast, mountains, islands, rural areas, medium-size cities, large cities...). • More active involvement in south mediterranean countries.