Emergency Management in the 21 st Century: Living in the New Normal

1. Emergency Management in the 21st Century: Living in the New Normal The US, New Zealand and the World February 16, 2005

2. Changes Over the Last Ten Years • Civil defense to domestic response • Losses continue to grow • We tend to be best prepared for past disasters • 25% of the deaths and 50% of injuries occur in things we don’t call disasters, like fog and lightning • More people die from heat than from earthquakes

3. Professional Changes Over Ten Years • National security to homeland security • Professional specialization in FEMA / EM • Building the profession • Higher education in emergency management – 1 to 120 • Emphasis on hazard mitigation and sustainable development • Preparedness is the foundation of EM

4. Continued Progress ® • Certifications – CEM , IAEM • Evolution of standards • CAR • NFPA 1600 • EMAP • Books increasing; journals increasing; need more research • Information flow speeded by internet and advanced technologies

5. More Progress • Virtual operations centers, created by EDS • Emphasis on response has given way to emphasis on preparedness and mitigation • Homeland Security has added prevention • Global outreach to underserved communities, disabled, seniors, minorities, tribes, colleges and universities, schools

6. Current Status • The disaster business keeps booming! • 1990 thru 1999 – FEMA spent $27 billion • 50 times more than 1950 thru 1959 • $10 per person for disaster relief • Insurance losses are running $40 billion per year, five times the 1950’s level • 76% of the trillion dollars of loss over 15 years is weather-related – climate change?

7. 2004’s Worst Natural Disasters • Earthquake / tsunami in Southeast Asia / Eastern Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $600 billion • Florida hurricanes:Charley, Francis, Gastonand “The Gang”. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$21 billion • Floods and landslides inthe Philippines • Drought in South Africa

8. 2004’s Worst Natural Disasters (continued) • Flood North Island ofNew Zealand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$200 million; $70 million indemnification • Tropical cyclone in Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$350 million • Floods in Bangladesh, Nepal, and India triggeredby monsoon rains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$5 billion • Earthquake in Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$30 million

9. 2004’s Worst Natural Disasters (continued) • Floods in Botswana andsurrounding countries • Earthquake in Morocco. . . . . . . . . . . . . .$400 million • Finally, a separate word about the tsunami, which has taken almost 300,000 lives, including those who are still missing: • Need for warning system – US spending $37.5 million to set up a deep-sea warning system around its coastline • International Tsunami Center reports not “if”, but “when”

10. Weather Challenges • Vulnerable coastline • Flood-prone rivers and streams • Busiest tornado corridor in the world – expanding and intensifying • Climate change and biodiversity risks • Other drivers in the disaster boom: • Political generosity • Lax FEMA regulations • Unprecedented development along coasts and in floodplains

11. Mitigation Measures • Restoring forests • Flood and erosion control • Protecting watersheds • Promoting other risk mitigation activities • Eradication of poverty • Environmental conservation • Sustainability development • Wider availability of disaster insurance

12. Structural Challenges in the US • Budget cuts • Demotion of FEMA • Preparedness grant distribution and emergency management in two different DHS organizations • All hazards vs. one hazard • Cutting and capping Emergency Management Performance Grants (EMPG)

13. The Next Ten Years: Crystal Ball Time • More colleges and universities offering certificates and degrees, eventually all will have some courses in emergency management • More online programs; perfect fit for our profession • Great need for faculty

14. The Next Ten Years (continued) • Technology will play an increasing role – simulations for exercises, video conferences • Enterprise Virtual Operations Center (EVOC) developed by EDS in the US for monitoring, response, exercises • More press attention to disasters and emergency personnel; will become issue in campaigns • More job descriptions will include degrees and certifications Virtual Operations Center

15. More Crystal Ball • Standards compliance will be part of funding process • NRP / NIMS / NFPA 1600 / EMAP • New presidential executive order on national preparedness standards – comment period • New intelligence reform law

16. The Future Foreseen • Extension of assessments • Tribal communities • Local governments • Private sector – Sarbanes Oxley and NFPA 1600 • Law suits – not hiring CEM , degree holders, and not meeting standards ®

17. Make a Wish • More funding • Higher salaries • More collaboration • More information sharing • More interoperability • All hazards approach • Becoming the first choice profession for young people

18. Emphasis Always On the Positive Side • More books • More manuals • More case studies • More best practices shared • More lessons learned shared • More chances like today to share challenges and support each other

19. Final Recommendations • Take a global perspective • Take a holistic look • Adhere to the all hazards approach • Accept responsibility for disasters because we can make decisions affecting them, not just Acts of God • Need a country-by-country risk assessment • Need a national database on disasters, so that we know what we are losing… • …and what we are spending

20. Final Recommendations (continued) • Comprehensive education and training from kindergarten through PhD • Share lessons learned and best practices more broadly • Many developing countries may know better how to relate to nature

21. ® Kay C. Goss, CEMSenior Advisor for Homeland Security, Emergency Management, and Business Continuity Electronic Data Systems Corporation (EDS) Kay.goss@eds.com