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“Perspectives for the new Dilma Rousseff Government (2011 – 2014)” David Fleischer

“Perspectives for the new Dilma Rousseff Government (2011 – 2014)” David Fleischer Institute of Political Science University of Brasília The Brazil Institute The Woodrow Wilson Center Washington, DC November 17, 2010. The 2010 Campaign - President Lula with 80% approval rating

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“Perspectives for the new Dilma Rousseff Government (2011 – 2014)” David Fleischer

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  1. “Perspectives for the new Dilma Rousseff Government (2011 – 2014)” David Fleischer Institute of Political Science University of Brasília The Brazil Institute The Woodrow Wilson Center Washington, DC November 17, 2010

  2. The 2010 Campaign - President Lula with 80% approval rating - He picked Dilma Rousseff “his” candidate - She left PDT to join PT in 1999 - PT accepts this choice - She had never run for elected office - Considerable experience - MM&E (2003-2005) - Casa Civil (2005-2010) - Daughter of Bulgarian immigrant - Former guerrilla fighter - Arrested by military & tortured

  3. April - Dilma & Serra tied at 37% - Ciro Gomes (PSB) leaves race - Marina Silva (PV) at 12% June - PT-PMDB coalition + 8 parties - Michel Temer as Vice - PSDB-DEM coalition + 4 parties - Índio da Costa as Vice Early September - Dilma peaked at 57% of valid vote - Casa Civil scandal exploded - Dilma declined  52% valid vote - Dilma voters  Marina Silva

  4. Dilma Rousseff Track of % of Polling Inst.Voter PreferenceValid Vote Datafolha 51%  47% 51.6% Ibope 51%  50% 54.3% Vox Populi 52%  49% 55.7% Sensus 50.5%  47.5% 54.7%

  5. First Round Results % Valid CandidatesPartyNº VotesVote D. Rousseff PT 47,651,434 46.91 J. Serra PSDB 33,132,283 32.61 M. Silva PV 19,636,359 19.33

  6. Second Round Campaign (October) - “Tit-for-Tat” accusations - Dilma portrayed as pro-abortion - Serra’s wife allegedly had abortion in US - Dilma “tolerates” corruption - Corruption in Serra government in SP  Dilma maintains “comfortable” lead

  7. Second Round Results % Valid CandidatesPartyNº VotesVote Dilma PT 55,752,092 56.05 Serra PSDB 43,710,422 43.95 DIlma Rousseff: Poll Inst.Track Valid Vote Datafolha 53.9%  55.6% Ibope 53% 57% Sensus 52.3%  58.6% Vox Populi 54% 57%

  8. Dilma – Serra Regional Division - Serra won 11 states (54% GDP) - South, Central-West + SP - Dilma won 16 states - Northeast, North, MG, RJ, DF - Some “recriminations” against NE - Complaints about loss in MG

  9. Breakdown of Congress (2011) In 2011, Dilma Rousseff will have stronger majorities in Congress - Especially in the Senate Pres. Lula campaigned to defeat SIX opposition Senators - Tasso Jereissati (PSDB-CE) - Arthur Virgílio (PSDB-AM) - Marco Maciel (DEM-PE) - Mão Santa (PSC-PI) - Heráclito Fortes (DEM-PI) - Efraim Moraes (DEM-PB) Plus Cesar Maia (DEM-RJ)

  10. Sept. Feb. Senate20102011 Dilma PT-PMDB-PSB- PR-PP-PDT- 42 54 PCdoB-PRB-PSC (51.9%) (67.7%) Opposition PSDB-DEM-PPS- 37 27 PTB-PMN-PSoL (45.7%) (33.3%) Other 2 0 (2.5%) TOTAL8181

  11. Sept. Feb. Chamber20102011 Dilma PT-PMDB-PSB-PR- PP-PDT-PCdoB- 338 353 PRB-PSC-PTC (65.9%) (68.8%) Opposition PSDB-DEM-PPS- PTB-PMN-PSoL- 158 139 PRTB (30.8%) (27.1%) Other PV-PHS-PAN- 17 19 PSL-PRP (3.3%) (3.7%) TOTAL513513  Turnover only 44.25%

  12. A new bloc is formed in Congress: PTB-PP-PR  103 deputies in 2011 In 2003 & 2004 this same group blocked the political reform This bloc will negotiate committee assignments & chairs in the Chamber  Allocate Senate & Chamber Presidents - Rotation, PT + PMDB??

  13. The Lula  Dilma Transition - Organizing the “new” Gov’t. - Dilma’s coordination team - Antônio Palocci - José Eduardo Cardozo - José Eduardo Dutra (Pres. PT) - Michel Temer (Pres. PMDB) - Initial Coordination “tasks” 1) Articulate with party coalition 2) Filter names for cabinet 3) Articulate 2011 budget – Congress - avoid cost over runs and increased spending

  14. Market pressures  economic team  Perhaps named by November 20 - Finance Minister - Sec. for Economic Policy - Central Bank President - Planning Minister Dilma: Cabinet one-third women???  11 out of 34 cabinet ministers?? - Lula has only three women in 2010  Like “Blair’s Babes” in 1997  José Luís Zapatero (2004) – 50% women  Michelle Bachelet (2006) – 10 out of 20

  15. Dilma’s possible picks (women): - Maria das Graças Foster - Miriam Belchior - Tereza Campello - Tânia Bacelar - Clara Levin Ant - Márcia Lopes - Isabela Teixeira - Ideli Salvatti (PT-SC) - Gleisi Hoffmann (PT-PR) - Marta Suplicy (PT-SP) - Vanessa Grazziotin (PCdoB-AM) - Lídice da Mata (PSB-BA) - Maria do Rosário (PT-RS) - Iriny Lopes (PT-RS) - Manuela D’Avila (PCdoB-RS)

  16. Dilma’s other possible picks (men): - Antônio Palocci - José Eduardo Cardozo - Paulo Bernardo - Fernando Pimentel - Guido Mantega - Aloísio Mercadante - Nelson Barbosa - Giles Azevedo - Gilberto Carvalho - Alexandre Padilha - Luciano Coutinho (PMDB) - Nelson Jobim (PMDB) - Edison Lobão (PMDB) - Henrique Meirelles (PMDB) - Alexandre Tombini - Ciro Gomes (PSB) - Márcio Fortes (PP) - Blairo Maggi (PR) - Abílio Diniz

  17. Brazil  International Ratings in Nov. 2010 1) IMF  7th Economy, GDP $2.2 trillion 2) World Bank – “Doing Business” - 2006, Brazil 119th out of 155 nations - 2010, Brazil 124th out of 183 nations - 2011, Brazil 127th out of 183 nations 3) United Nations – Human Development Index - 74th out of 169 nations (0.699) - could have been worse (0.599) - if inequalities considered - income, education & health - “Women’s Watch” – 80th in gender equality 4) Forbes magazine - “Dilma 16th most powerful person on earth” - after Angela Merkel & Sonia Gandhi

  18. Dilma Rousseff’s Challenges for 2011 1) Infrastructure bottlenecks & logistics - airports, air travel, air cargo  currently at the limit in Brazil - private sector via concessions  remove Air Force “control” - ocean ports – backlogs & costs - expand capacity via concessions - highways – added costs (“custo Brasil”) - railroads – further expansion - minerals + grain - Caterpillar, locomotive factory - electricity supply - must keep ahead of demand

  19. 2) Reform Agenda – 2011 an odd year - tax/fiscal reform - new federalism pact?? - labor legislation - reduce social overhead costs - currently 103% - social security reform - private sector INSS - review of public sector - political reform - attempted in 2003, 2007 & 2009 - close PR list - prohibit PR coalitions - threshold clause (1%, 2% or 3%??) - Senator alternates - via sub-lists? - campaign finance?

  20. 3) Education - upgrade, enhance & expand - universities & technical schools - quality performance primary/secondary - not just quantity  bad rating on HDI 4) Relations with States - resurrect CPMF  as CSS - restructure state debts - established in 1997/1998 - IGP-DI + 6%  SP tries to lead (destabilize Dilma)

  21. 5) Control of federal expenditures - extreme pressures on transition  some R$180 billion extra? 6) Eradicate misery & poverty - bolsa família - upward social mobility - GDP growth  new jobs - link school and job training 7) Basic sanitation  quality of life - water & sewerage

  22. 8) Regulate pre-salt petroleum exploration - which management model? - stronger State control?  channel profits to development - avoid the “curse of petroleum” 9) Reaction to global “FX warfare”  G-20 in Seoul - undervalued US dollars flood Brazil - Brazil might run trade deficit in 2011  monetary/fiscal policies - reduce debt/GDP ratio, 42%  30% - reduce Selic rate (7% or 8%)?? - new Central Bank president? - reduce federal expenditures - heavier tax on US dollar inflow  Allow Real to “float up” to R$1,80 FX rate

  23. 10) Industrial policy for key sectors - promote technological innovation - sustained development

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