Discussion Topics Bob Weigel Space Wx Policies Space Wx Codes Space Wx Forecasting

1. Discussion Topics Bob Weigel Space Wx Policies Space Wx Codes Space Wx Forecasting The CISM Knowledge Transfer Short Course AFWA Omaha, November 2-3, 2005

2. CISM Short Course First Topic: Space Wx Policies

3. Space Wx Policies Space Wx Policies Basic Questions Why does space weather matter? What does space weather bring to the fight? What are the impacts of space weather events?

4. Space Wx Policies Why does AFWA care about space wx? Because AFWA is the sole source of operational space environment support to the Department of Defense.

5. Space Wx Policies Joint Publication 3-59 One mission of the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) is to provide timely and accurate space environment observations, analyses, forecasts, and warnings to enhance the operational capability of worldwide DOD forces and national agencies.

6. Space Wx Policies Why does space weather matter? Because most military activities and modern capabilities within the battlefield depend in some way on the space environment. Most military activities operate in, communicate through, are commanded from, or are impacted by the space environment.

7. Space Wx Policies A few examples: • Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) scintillation degrades • Precision guided munitions GPS errors on system guidance • Safeguarding EOS satellites US forces would have had little to no warning of severe dust storms during combat ops • LEO satellites orbit degradation due to increased density • Command & Control HF communicationsdegraded due to solar flares.

8. Space Wx Policies Space Environment Affected System

9. Space Wx Policies What does space weather bring to the fight? Accurate and timely space wx information enables the war fighter to anticipate and exploit the space environment for operational advantage. Exploit the space environment through: • precision navigation • timing and tracking capabilities • autonomous and remotely piloted unmanned vehicles • very stringent geolocation requirements to support precision targeting

10. Space Wx Policies Time out for discussion As the AF evolves its command, control, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems, it will depend ever more on space weather characterization and forecasting. How can the AF prepare itself ?

11. Space Wx Policies There will be a “tsunami” of space environment data, characterized by much higher resolution and fidelity. • Foster development and implementation of new space weather models to improve accuracy and timeliness • Integrate meaningful space weather information into warfighter command and control, planning, and execution systems • Develop impact reporting, analysis and archiving processes of space weather events to improve support to warfighters • Leverage existing and create new partnerships within the space weather community

12. Space Wx Policies What are the impacts of space weather events? Let’s take a look at the major recent Space Storm!

13. CISM Short Course The Halloween Storms of 2003 October 19th – November 7th Colorado Flatirons Aurora – Oct 2003 Photo by Stan Soloman

14. Halloween Storms • 26 Oct: San Francisco Communications Center reported frequency fade during solar activity from 1600Z to 2400Z. Central West Pacific hardest hit. Frequency fade increased in intensity and affected all frequencies on all HF groups. • C-130 operations in Antarctica changed landing and take-off restrictions during the HF blackout periods. • A major airline rerouted six polar flights to non-polar routes requiring fuel stops in Japan and/or Anchorage (Numerous other US flights rerouted or restricted). • A maritime interdiction mission which required 100% communications was cancelled based on AFWA scintillation forecast. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- • 26 Oct: SMART-1 in lunar transfer orbit had auto shutdown of engine due to increased radiation level (reported a total of three shutdowns). • 26 Oct: Chandra X-ray astronomy satellite observations halted due to high radiation levels (observations resumed on 1 Nov). • 28 Oct: Kodama a Japanese data relay satellite in geosynchronous orbit entered safe mode and transmitted noisy signals (JAXA recovers the spacecraft on 7 Nov). • 28 Oct: MARIE instrument on Mars Odyssey had a temperature red alarm leading it to be powered off (the instrument did not recover).

15. Halloween Storms • 28 Oct: SOHOspacecraft at the L1 point had SCDS instrument commanded into safe mode for 3 days. • 29 Oct: MarsOdyssey entered safe mode during the severe radiation storm. The spacecraft had a memory error during download (corrected by cold reboot on 31 Oct). • 29 Oct: NASA directed all instruments on AQUA, Landsat, TERRA, TOMS, TRMM spacecraft be turned off or “safed” due to storm warnings. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- • NOAA 17 AMSU-A1 lost scanner. • ACEandWindsolar wind satellites lost plasma observations. • 30 Oct: DMSP F14 SSM/T-2 sensor lost data. Microwave sounder lost oscillator; switched to redundant system. • 31 Oct 03: JAXA declared ADEOS-II a total loss. This ended US Navy efforts to enhance sea surface wind data collection leveraging NASA’s SeaWinds instrument. • GOES-9 & 10 had high bit error rates; GEOS-12 had magnetic torquers disabled; GOES XRS instrument saturated at the X17.4 level for 12 minutes. • AFSPC corrected for satellite orbit changes by running satellite drag models based on advanced warning of geomagnetic and solar activity indices.

16. Halloween Storms • 30 Oct: power system failure occurred in Malmo, Sweden, resulting in blackout conditions for about one hour. • NERC commented that some electric systems reported higher than normal Ground Induced Currents (GICs) that resulted in fluctuations in the MW and MVAR output of some generating units. (A capacitor tripped in the NW). • One Early Warning Radar switched from commercial to generator power to avoid damage from GICs ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- • Flight controllers issued contingency directives for the ISS Expedition 8 crew (briefly relocate to the aft portion of the station's Zvezda Service Module and the Temporary Sleep Station (TeSS) in the US Lab). • The ISS experienced significant abnormal frictional drag. • NASA did a ground-commanded powerdown of the billion dollar robotic arm.

17. Halloween Storms What had happened? 28-29 Oct 2003 “The (near) Perfect Solar Storm” during Solar Cycle 23

18. Halloween Storms In just over one week, 3 very large & complex sunspot clusters emerged on the Sun … Region 486, at 2610 millionths,became the largest sunspot group of Solar Cycle 23 484 488 486

19. Halloween Storms X10 (R4), Reg 486 (S15W02) Full Halo CME (1948 km/s) Proton Producer - Radiation Storm in progress … produced, at that point, the largest flare of Solar Cycle 23 X17 (R4 – Severe)

20. Halloween Storms … produced the fastest CME of Solar Cycle 23 ~ 2300 km/s

21. Halloween Storms … produced the 2nd largest radiation storm of Solar Cycle 23 (S4 – Severe)

22. Halloween Storms … produced the largest geomagnetic storm of Solar Cycle 23 (G5 – Extreme)

23. Halloween Storms Summary 17 Major flares (>R2) 6 Radiation storms (>S1) 4 Geomagnetic storms (>G2) This activity occurred 3.5 years after the peak month of Solar Cycle 23 in Apr 2000

24. Space Wx Policies Time out for discussions • Which AFWA systems are vulnerable to severe space weather events (such as the Halloween storm)? • Which AFWA system impacts (or losses) can be avoided or mitigated • at current level of space wx service? • with improved level of space wx service? • What are the strategic, tactical, readiness consequences of a severe space weather event?

25. CISM Short Course A path for improvement How can AFWA improve the assessment, mitigation, and planning of space wx events on its systems and mission? By a better characterization and forecasting of the space wx! A better characterization can be achieved through • more detailed space environment data • more accurate space environment models

26. CISM Short Course Second Topic: Space Wx Codes

27. Space Wx Codes Basic Questions What space science models do we develop? How do we test space science models? What is our timeline for science model development?

28. Space Wx Codes What space science models do we develop? CISM develops empirical and physical space science models The models form an Sun-to-Earth end-to-end chain

29. Space Wx Codes The CISM Science Model Development Suite Empirical Models: Ap Index Dst Index Solar Wind Speed @ L1 B, |dB|/dt MeV Electrons @ GEO MeV Electrons f(L) Physics Models: MAS: solar coronal MHD ENLIL: heliospheric MHD LFM: global magnetospheric MHD RCM: radiation belt model TIECGM: iono/thermo-spheric model INTERCOMM/Overture: framework

30. Space Wx Codes How do we test space science models? CISM has devised a process for verifying and validating space science models

31. Space Wx Codes Code Testing Definitions (AIAA 1998) Model – a representation of a physical system or process Modeling – the process of constructing or modifying a model Simulation – the exercise or use of a model Verification – the process of determining the degree to which a model implementation accurately represents the model design Validation – the process of determining the degree to which a model accurately represents the physical system or process Uncertainty – the potential deficiency in the modeling process due to lack of knowledge Error – the recognizable deficiency in the modeling process not due to lack of knowledge Prediction – the use of a model to foretell the state of a physical system under conditions for which the model has not been validated Calibration – the process of adjusting model parameters for the purpose of improving the agreement of the model with the observations

32. Space Wx Codes Distinction: Code Verification and Code Validation (Roache 1998) Validation solving the right equations Verification solving the equations right Nature Theory: Mathematical Description Code: Numerical Implementation Desired Validity Actual Validity Model Design Goal

33. Space Wx Codes The CISM Science Model Verification & Validation Process Verification Process: Regression testing Test runs, ideal problems Convergence studies Parameter studies Benchmarking Code-to-code comparisons Verification report Validation Process: Defining appropriate metrics Event-based analysis Epochal/Time-series analysis Defining appropriate performance measures Performance efficiency, contingency tables Probabilistic interpretation Validation report

34. Space Wx Codes What is our timeline for science model development? CISM is currently defining a project schedule for its science models

35. Space Wx Codes

36. Space Wx Codes Time out for discussions • Which CISM empirical or physical science models are of interest to AFWA? • Where are similarities, where are differences between CISM and AFWA in the development of science models? • What requirements are needed, which processes put in place, what kind of agreements being made, for a fruitful collaboration between CISM and AFWA?

37. CISM Short Course Third Topic: Space Wx Forecasting

38. Space Wx Forecasting Basic Questions What forecast models do we have? How do we design our forecast models? How do we transition a science model into a space weather code?

39. Space Wx Forecasting What forecast models do we have? CISM has developed an empirical Sun-Earth forecasting chain CISM will develop forecast products from selected physical models

40. Space Wx Forecasting The CISM Sun to Earth Forecasting chain r V B F MeV Electron Flux ACE Measurements L1-Earth Propagation External Field Solar Boundary Measurements SW Propagation Surface B, dB/dt Solar Radiance Measurements MSIS90 Ap,Dst

41. Space Wx Forecasting The CISM Sun to Earth Forecasting chain Solar Wind Speed Electron Flux (2-9 MeV) Planetary A Index blue bars: daily measured values (SW, Ap) black bars: 1-day predicted values (SW, Ap) grey stripe: 27-days of recent solar rotation coloredlines: watch/warninglevels

42. Space Wx Forecasting The CISM Sun to Earth Forecasting chain Solar Wind Speed • Solar Wind Speed at L1 • 1-7 day lead time prediction • Prediction derived from 4 components: • Persistence • Autoregression • WSA from WSO synoptic map • WSA from NSO synoptic map Planetary A Index • Planetary A Index • 1-7 day lead time prediction • Prediction derived from 3 components: • Persistence • Autoregression (AR) • AR with daily solar wind speed from ACE • (AR with WSA solar wind speed possible)

43. Space Wx Forecasting The CISM Ambient Solar Wind Forecasting Model Startup Get r/t KPO Photospheric Field Data Processor Synoptic Maps CISM_DX Synoptic Map Animation WSA Expansion Factors B Field Strengths CISM_DX Coronal Hole Structure Code Coupler Compute ENLIL Inner Boundary CISM_DX Inner Boundary Velocity Structure WSA Propagate Solar Wind to L1 ENLIL Propagate Solar Wind to L1 CISM_DX Heliospheric Tomography CISM_DX Solar Wind Prediction at L1

44. Space Wx Forecasting The CISM Ambient Solar Wind Forecasting Model CR 1891 CR 1892 WSO Synoptic Maps Coronal Holes WSA Source Surface Vsw L1 12/31/94 01/19/95 02/08/95

45. Space Wx Forecasting Empirical Model Forecast Products Physical Model Forecast Products WSA-ENLIL Ambient Solar Wind: 3-4 day forecast of plasma parameters at L1, 3-4 day forecast of stream interface (fast/slow) at L1, daily estimates of arrival times and duration, daily animated view of the ecliptic plane WSA-ENLIL-Cone Global Solar Wind: daily forecast of transient events at L1, daily estimates of arrival times and duration, daily animated view of the ecliptic plane, on-demand characterization of shock plane at L1 LFM-TI(E)NG Geospace Model: daily shape and location of the magnetopause, daily size and extend of the aurora boundary, daily polar cap potential, daily strength and position of the electrojet, daily 3-d neutral atmosphere & wind velocity vectors, daily 3-d electron density, on demand line-of-site electron contents, daily maps of ionospheric irregularities nowcasts and forecasts up to 3 days ahead Ap Index: daily 1-7 day forecast, 3-hourly running ap index Radiation Belt Model (MeV Electron): daily forecast of L-shell distribution, daily forecast of energy & pitch angle distribution WSA (data import module): “synoptic” maps from white light, EUV, SXI images WSA (prediction module): 3-4 day forecast of wind speed & polarity at L1, daily animated view of the ecliptic plane WSA (analysis module): daily coronal hole maps Cone Model: on-demand best guess of ejection direction SPE Model: on-demand characterization of solar protons dB/dt Model: daily regional ground magnetic variations

46. Space Wx Forecasting How do we design our forecast models? Design criteria: modular, portable, user friendly, documented Models are verified and validated Products and outputs are standardized

47. Space Wx Forecasting How do we transition a science model into a space weather code? CISM is developing a process for transitioning models into SEC

48. Space Wx Forecasting The CISM Forecast Model Transfer Process CISM Devel: Science Model VT freezes SM: Scientific Model FM: Forecast Model S/W Engineering: Testing, CVS, User’s Guide VT validates VT: Validation Team SM Validation: Validation Report Finalize S/E KT ports KT: Knowledge Xfer Team SEC Devel bed: Testing period Mature/Adapt KT validates SEC invites FM Validation: Reports & Docs Ops Manual KT trains SEC reviews SEC Test bed: Evaluation period Training/Integr SEC selects SEC Ops: Operational Model SEC accepts

49. Space Wx Forecasting Time out for discussions • How does AFWA plan to move towards physics-based models? • How does AFWA arrive at a standardized operational picture? • standardize forecast products and outputs • standardize architecture and data flow • What would a transition plan for CISM science models into AFWA operational models look like?