Decision analysis and risk management: Introduction to course

1. Jouni Tuomisto, THL Decision analysis and risk management: Introduction to course

2. Aims of the course • To give a good understanding and practical skills to perform, participate, and moderate open assessments using Opasnet. • The capability to act as an expert facilitator. The purpose is to learn to effectively use facilitation to improve decision support. • The students will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between assessments and societal decision making, and the role of decision making in a pragmatic context of improving outcomes. They will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of an assessment, and know how to build an open assessment based on the requirements of societal decision making. • The focus is on how to convincingly exclude poor decision options rather than trying to find a theoretically optimal solution (e.g. with highest expected utility).

3. The role of expert facilitator • The key role is to help people understand complex decision-related issues and each other. • Another key role is to transform this understanding into a machine-readable format for quantitative modelling. • Sharing data and understanding is the joy of a facilitator!

4. Q? A! R: Open risk management: overview • Mikko V Pohjola and Jouni T Tuomisto.. Environmental Health 2011, 10: 58doi

5. Societal decision example: the port of Rauma Urban area planning is under way in Rauma. The development of the port of Rauma is a critical thing. How large are the emissions and health impacts of fine particles in Rauma, Finland? Options: 1: Centre and nearby areas 2: From centre to sea (port moved to a new area) 3: Shores and paths

6. Decision analysis framework Who defines the problem? Whose utilities? p(in time), cost (€) E(u) pt ? k€ ? pt ? k€ ? pt ? k€ ? pt ? k€ ? pt ? k€ ? pt ? k€ ? Decision: 3 options Uncertain outcomes Chances

7. Rauma port: health impacts of fine particle emissions • http://en.opasnet.org/w/Health_impacts_of_fine_particles_in_Rauma

8. Map of the two main options for Rauma port

9. How Rauma model looks like

10. Example of concentration fields around the port

11. Attributable deaths due to city plan options in Rauma

12. Decisions by an individual vs. in a society In theory, decision analysis is straightforward with a single decision-maker: she just has to assess her subjective probabilities and utilities and maximize expected utility. In practice, there are severe problems: assessing probabilities and utilities is difficult. However, in a society things become even more complicated: There are several participants in decision-making. There is disagreement about probabilities and utilities. The decision models used are different. The knowledge bases are different. NOTE! In this course, "knowledge" means both scientific (what is?) and ethical (what should be?) knowledge.

13. What is Opasnet web workspace? • Place to collect and produce information for decision support • Place for online collaboration • Functionalities used and available • A wiki for describing and discussing issues • A database for storing all kinds of data • Machine-readable links to other databases • Modelling environment for making assessments using R statistical software • Possibility to directly access the data and model results from outside

14. Open data is a current megatrend • http://www.openaccessweek.org/ • https://www.vm.fi/vm/fi/05_hankkeet/0238_ogp/index.jsp • http://apps4finland.fi/2012/10/28/datan-avaus-datavaalit/ • http://www.datavaalit.fi/participate/ • http://pilotti.forumvirium.fi/ • https://data.seattle.gov/ • http://www.data.gov/ • http://data.gov.uk/

15. Framework for knowledge-based policy

16. Schedule of the course Course website: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm Lecture videos: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/decision-analysis-and-risk-management Homeworks: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Decision_analysis_and_risk_management_2013/Homework Rauma case: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Health_impacts_of_fine_particles_in_Rauma

17. Homeworks • Homework 1: Familiarise yourself to Mikko Pohjola's thesis and answer the questions. Due date: 10 Jan • Homework 2: Read the introductory pages about Template:Opasnet training and write one question that you think needs clarification. Due date: 11 Jan • Homework 3: With your pair, draft an assessment about the topic agreed on during the lecture. Due date: 21 Jan. • For details see http://en.opasnet.org/w/Decision_analysis_and_risk_management_2013/Homework

18. Topic lectures (14.-18.1.) • Introductions to different topic areas where open assessment is being used in practice. • Climate change mitigation policies on municipality level. City of Kuopio is a participant. • Metal mine risk assessment (ecology + health). • Health impact assessment: calculating burden of disease.

19. Method sessions Lectures, exercises, and homework about specific skills needed in open assessments. Technical skills for maintaining information structures. Skills to organise discussions. Skills to develop quantitative models. Skills to critically evaluate evidence.

20. Exercises Everyone is given several tasks to train and show skills needed. Exercises are places where students can come and ask for help and guidance, and where guidance can be given to larger groups. The purpose of exercises is to facilitate the task work.

21. Seminars In the end of the course, all participants present results of the tasks they have performed. The course is also evaluated using the evaluation criteria for environmental health assessments.

22. End