Systems, institutional frameworks and processes for early identification of skill needs

1. Forward studies on skills and qualifications in France : Is it possible to coordinate so many actors ? Systems, institutional frameworks and processes for early identification of skill needs International Conference 25th - 26 th November 2004, Dublin, Marc-Antoine Estrade Commissariat Général du Plan (Planning Office) Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

2. Prospect of skills and qualifications in France • Economic and demographic background • Who is interested in identification of skill needs ? • The different levels of identification of skill needs • Main difficulties Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

3. Economic and demographic background1. Retirements • Retirements flows will grow by 50% in the next decade • Change in retirement age will just delay the growth of retirements rates Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

4. Economic and demographic background : retirements leaves From 2005, post-war baby-boomers will retire Total French population, aged between 40 and 70, by age source : Insee, march 2001 Large increase of retirements leaves from 2005 478 000 people per year 2000-2005 653 000 people per year 2005-2010 Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

5. Economic and demographic background : retirements leaves Ageeing or young occupations proportion of workers over 50 Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

6. Economic and demographic background2. Education and employment • Only one third of all workers have been formally trained for the jobs they currently have • Seniority increased for the more qualified workers • Unemployment rates are very high among less qualified Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

7. Economic and demographic background3. Polarization of labour demand • Labour demand is projected to increase strongly in the next years for managers, engineers and technicians, particularly in computer science-related activities, R&D, professional training and public relation occupations • But, labour demand for less qualified positions would also be very dynamic, in contrast to previous decades, particularly for domestic services occupations (child care workers, personal and home care aides…), waiters and cashiers Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

8. Economic and demographic background : labour demand forecasts Top of occupational growth of employment by 2010 Source : Dares, French Ministry of Labour Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

9. Who is interested in identification of skills needs?1. Firms • They are in charge of worker training(training expenditures should represent at least 1,5% of wages) • Firms are not prepared for demographic changes Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

10. Who is interested in identification of skills needs?2. Sectors • 95% of workers are implicated in sectoral collective agreements (branches) • Collective bargainings on training and employment Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

11. Who is interested in identification of skills needs?2. Sectors • Joint commissions collect the money from firms and organize training sessions • All sectors will set up observatories for occupations and qualifications Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

12. Who is interested in identification of skills needs?3. Regions • Regions finance youth training measures(apprenticeship,…) • Regions coordinate all the training operators in a regional plan for training development (PRDF) • Regions are responsible for economic development Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

13. Who is interested in identification of skills needs?4. Public employment service • PES needs informations to match demand and supply of occupations • Provides training for unemployed • Will cooperate at the local level within the « Houses of employment » Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

14. The different levels for skills and occupations identification1. Sectoral level • Future sectoral studies (CEP) • Co-financed by sectors and Ministry of Labour • Identify economic, technologic and social changes • Consequences of these changes on work contents and organization, the qualifications, skills and training needs Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

15. The different levels for skills and occupations identification1. Sectoral level • About 70 CEP available since 1988 • Both quantitative and qualitative methods • These studies are now more on a regional basis with region’s involvment Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

16. The different levels for skills and occupations identification1. Sectoral level • Observatories for occupations and skills • Law in may 2004 • All are mainly involved in statistical collection • Dissemination towards firms • Some are directly involved in implementation of training policies Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

17. The different levels for skills and occupations identification2. Regional level • Regional observatories for employment and training (OREF) • Co-financed by state and the region • Mainly to prepare PRDF • Some studies are based on a broad cooperation(region, PES, sectors, regional government departments : Labour, Education) Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

18. The different levels for skills and occupations identification3. Vocational diplomas and certificates creation • Ministry of Education, Adults’ Vocational Training Association (AFPA), sectors • Usually based on vocational profiles defined through the needs expressed by sectors • Common vocational education certificates european project Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

19. The different levels for skills and occupations identification4. National level • Ministry of Education : Forward study on Employement and Training • From 1988, last one in 2004 • Future economic needs of qualifications, especially for young people leaving school Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

20. The different levels for skills and occupations identification4. National level • Macroeconomic projection on growth and employment • Demand for occupations (levels of qualifications by sectors) • Assumptions on the hiring policies of firms(internal mobility, unemployed, young) • Levels of qualification of those leaving school Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

21. The different levels for skills and occupations identification4. National level • Planning Office : Forward study on occupations and qualifications (PMQ) • With the Ministry of Labour • First release in 2002, next in 2006 • Main focus on occupations Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

22. The different levels for skills and occupations identification4. National level • Occupation classification : Families of Professional Activities (FAP) • A bridge between employment statistics and labour market statistics Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

23. The different levels for skills and occupations identification4. National level • Assumptions and results are discussed in a very large dialogue :social partners, ministries, PES, regions • The quantitative results and qualitative assumptions will be cross-checked with sectoral observatories • A special working group is devoted to help to set up sectoral observatories Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

24. The different levels for skills and occupations identification4. National level • Previous results were presented all around the country • Disseminated through a special edition of an economic newspaper • Website to gather studies and data Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

25. The main difficulties • Training-oriented or job-oriented studies • Cooperation and agreement on tools, methodologies, assumptions and results require time • Policy implementation : should decision-makers be involved from the beginning or not ? • Who is charge with transversal occupations and skills ? Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

26. Contacts • Christine Afriat cafriat@plan.gouv.fr • Marc-Antoine Estrademarc-antoine.estrade@plan.gouv.fr • Commissariat Général au Plan18, rue de Martignac75700 Paris 07 SP - FRANCE • http://195.46.219.20/cgp/accueil.htm Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France