International Seminar on Tsunami Plenary Discussion 1 February 2005

1. International Seminar on TsunamiPlenary Discussion1 February 2005 Recommendations for Thailand and other tsunami-affected countries for today and tomorrow Department of Mineral Resources, Thailand

2. The roles of the Geosciences • Geosciences can fundamentally contribute to understanding recent events and prediction of future risks • Opportunities for new understanding • Factors responsible for tsunami generation • Effects of tsunami impacts on the coastline • Definition of risks and probabilities • Effectiveness of warning systems • Input to rehabilitation – including pollution control • Input to coastal planning and rebuilding • Spatial scales – regional to local • Time scales – short term to long term

3. The December 2004 Asian Tsunamis – some key questions • What can be learned from the recent tragic events ? • What new information and concepts are already emerging ? • What are the newly identified gaps in knowledge that need to be addressed ? • What short and long term recommendations and actions are appropriate ? • What new data and projects are needed ?

4. Some topics identified by the Minister of Natural Resources and Environment • Tsunami risk models– earthquake links • Local early warning systems • Information and communication issues • Tsunami effects • Economic impacts (navigation, fishing etc.) • Environmental impacts (pollution, ecology • Total hazard analysis (landslides, sinkholes) • Building codes • Agency roles and reorganization

5. Specific focus on new recommendations - for Thailand and other tsunami- affected countries for today and tomorrow • Discussion leaders • Dr David Ovadia (BGS) • Mr Niran Chaimanee (DMR) • Dr Kjell Karlsrud (NGI) • Dr David Long (BGS) • Dr Kenji Satake (AIST / JGS) • Dr Martin Culshaw (BGS) • Plenary discussion by all participants • Chair – Dr David B. Prior

6. Recommendations for Thailand and other tsunami-affected countries - summary from plenary session (edited by D.B. Prior) - (1) General considerations • The general approach - cooperation and collaboration - is absolutely critical - (not competition) • Among CCOP countries (and neighbors) • Within CCOP countries – between agencies • A combination of time-based approaches will be most effective • Address short term needs and immediate actions (beginning now – over coming weeks and months) • Longer term goals and strategies (beginning now – over months and years) • Immediate bi-lateral assistance is urgently needed • CCOP must offer leadership for coordinated activities for one or more collaborative (local) projects with regional applications • An applied science approach is needed - not research driven agendas or personal agendas • Carefully managed comprehensive data repositories must be established – to ensure maximum capacity to learn from recent events and future studies

7. Recommendations for Thailand and other tsunami-affected countries – summary from plenary session (edited by D.B. Prior) – (2) Factors responsible for tsunami generation • Need to achieve better understanding of: • Seismology / tsunami links – from modeling • Earthquake related seafloor morphology - from high resolution deep sea surveys and mapping • Fault displacement and seafloor geometries and resulting tsunamis – from combined 3D seismic surveys and modeling • Submarine landslides and tsunami initiation – from deep sea surveys and modeling • Wave propagation – from models updated - by 2004 observations and data – and including wave deflection and interaction effects • Regional scale seafloor morphology effects on tsunami propagation – from regional bathymetry data • Model complex factor interactions – e.g. varying earthquake properties, displacements and wave initiation and propagation

8. Recommendations for Thailand and other tsunami-affected countries - summary from plenary session (edited by D.B.Prior) - (3) Effects of tsunami impacts on the coastline • Determine variations in coastal inundation patterns – from combined satellite, air photographs and surface mapping • Determine relationships between inundation patterns to variations in coastal characteristics - by mapping both onshore morphology, sediments, vegetation and land use - and offshore bathymetry, geology and biology • Determine ground water contamination patterns – from well surveys and sampling • Determine soil contamination patterns from mapping, sampling and analysis • Determine tsunami – induced changes to coastal system and assess future coastal evolution under more normal processes and conditions • Assessment of the effects of any known pre-existing weak points in augmenting impacts e.g. areas prone to erosion • Model complex factor interactions – e.g. wave heights, inundation, and damage in relation to coastal and nearshore geometries

9. Recommendations for Thailand and other tsunami-affected countries – summary from plenary session (edited by D.B.Prior) – (4) Definition of risks and probabilities • Immediate need to determine probability of repeat events and estimations of locations, magnitude and frequency – by review and analysis of all available data and models • Need coastal hazard susceptibility zonation maps • Need to translate all applied science findings and predictions into usable products and language for planning advice and use by public policy makers • Refinement of risk can be expected from longer term monitoring and analysis of broad band seismic activity along the plate boundary, and in neighboring areas • Use a “scenario” approach to forecast risk under different combinations of factors and

10. Recommendations for Thailand and other tsunami-affected countries – summary from plenary session (edited by D.B.Prior) – (5) Effectiveness of warning systems • The large regional IOC / UNESCO Pacific warning system has proved effective and a similar technology is under consideration for the Indian Ocean – continuing discussions at high government levels • Local communication and educational awareness measures are also urgently needed – to include: • Communication methods and strategies to rapidly reach all threatened coastal communities irrespective of level of development – to include telephone, radio and TV supplemented by local siren alarms for 24 hour alerts • Education of all coastal residents about tsunami signs and risks – to include new school curricular, warning signs, annual remembrance events etc. • Brochures and hotel information leaflets to inform tourists and visitors • Local high resolution maps showing evacuation routes and safe locations • Need to address issue of keeping focus on risk awareness for events that do not recur frequently and therefore may be forgotten or suffer decreasing attention

11. Recommendations for Thailand and other tsunami-affected countries – summary from plenary session (edited by D.B.Prior) – (6) Input to immediate rehabilitation • Detailed assessment of coastal damage to buildings and infrastructure • Determination of especially vulnerable coastal areas, and types of structures – noting great variability and extent of impacts • Detailed maps and data from assessment of effects of tsunami impacts on the coastline (see recommendations 3) • Immediate restoration of natural resources – e.g. water, soil, vegetation, addressing contamination and salt water intrusion • Dialog between coastal stakeholders regarding priorities for redevelopment including – community, business, and national leadership • Immediate educational efforts and establishment of local warning systems against short term tsunami recurrence

12. Recommendations for Thailand and other tsunami-affected countries – summary from plenary session (edited by D.B.Prior) – (7) Input to coastal planning and rebuilding • Review the need for new building codes based upon lessons learned from recent events • Review effectiveness of both hard and soft protection measures and their suitability for different coastal settings • Take an overall planning approach to decision making using all best available site information – including topography, sediment types and distributions, geotechnical properties, drainage conditions etc. • Review damage from recent events and ask whether total or partial relocation of cities, towns, villages and associated infrastructure is necessary, desirable or possible • Review local and federal government roles in ownership and management of coastal areas • Where possible use government intervention in future coastal land use – such as declaration of national park status • Learn from past mistakes and where possible restrict of ban future land use practices that are especially hazard prone • Adopt a “total hazard” approach to coastal zone management

13. Recommendations for Thailand and other tsunami-affected countries – summary from plenary session (edited by D.B. Prior) – (8) Organizational and implementation factors • Need to critically review internal country agency organizational responsibilities with respect to natural hazards to identify: • appropriateness of mission and capabilities • gaps and overlaps • levels of cooperation / communication between local and regional levels • Need to place responsibility for all natural hazards in one national level department / agency with a commander in chief and a well established chain of command and responsibility structure • Need regular measurement of institutional effectiveness • Review agency personnel capabilities and institute training programs • Need to establish strong cooperation and communication among all levels of government – community, provincial, national and international (regional) • For immediate actions and planning recruit experts as needed from cooperating countries