International Mortality Comparisons

1. International Mortality Comparisons Richard MacMinnEdmondson-Miller Chair Katie School College of Business Illinois State University AVW06230311

2. Opening comments • Data • The Human Mortality Database • Perspectives on international mortality data • Period data • Select birth cohorts • Rationales for mortality improvements

3. Objectives • Look for common trends in mortality improvement data • Identify select birth cohorts • Seek causal links for mortality improvements • Compare immediate annuity costs using historical mortality data

4. Select birth cohorts • A select cohort is a birth cohort characterized by greater rates of mortality improvement that previous and subsequent generations. • A number of select birth cohorts have been identified in the literature • England & Wales (1925-45), Sweden (1900-10), and Japan (1910-20) • More select birth cohorts are noted here.

5. Select birth cohorts

6. England & Wales • There are some dramatic mortality improvements by period • The GAD identified generations born between 1925 and 1945 as select birth cohorts. • Mean mortality improvements jumped from a max of 1.8% to 3.8% for select cohorts. • The standard deviation jumped from .043 to .056

7. England & Wales

8. England & Wales

9. England & Wales

10. England & Wales • The next figure compares immediate annuity costs for different birth cohorts. • At each date the figure provides the cost for an immediate annuity that covers the individual for age 25 through 45.

11. England & Wales

12. England & Wales

13. England & Wales

14. Norway • There are some dramatic mortality improvements by period • Note the 1870’s and late 1940’s. • A 1940 select birth cohort has been identified.

15. Norway

16. Norway

17. Norway

18. Sweden • There are some dramatic mortality improvements by period • Note 1915-19 and the early 1940’s. • 1925 and 1930 select birth cohorts have been identified. • The mean mortality improvement increased and the standard deviation decreased for the select cohorts.

19. Sweden

20. Sweden

21. Sweden

22. Denmark • There are some dramatic improvements in the 1940’s • 1925 and 1935 exhibit select cohorts properties

23. Denmark

24. Denmark

25. Denmark

26. France • There are dramatic period effects subsequent to 1915 and 1945. • A 1935 select cohort seems to exist

27. France

28. France

29. France

30. France

31. West Germany • Some dramatic period effects exist, e.g., 1965. • 1905, 1910 and 1915 exhibit select birth cohort effects

32. West Germany

33. West Germany

34. West Germany

35. Switzerland • There are quite dramatic period effects for the 1920’s and 1940’s • 1930 and 1950 exhibit select cohort properties

36. Switzerland

37. Switzerland

38. Switzerland

39. Switzerland

40. Italy • There are dramatic positive and negative effects in the 1940’s. • The 1915, 1930 and 1935 cohorts exhibit select properties. • The 1915 and 1935 cohorts exhibit higher mean mortality improvements and lower standard deviations that surrounding cohorts

41. Italy

42. Italy

43. Italy

44. Italy

45. Austria • There is a significant negative mortality effect in the 1960’s similar to other countries. • The 1900, 1905, 1910, 1915 and 1935 cohorts exhibit select properties

46. Austria

47. Austria

48. Austria

49. Austria

50. Japan • Significant period effects persisted into the 1950’s at early ages. • The 1910, 1915 and 1935 cohorts exhibit select properties