Dilemmas of regime shift in one-party dominated states: A case study of Japan

1. Dilemmas of regime shift in one-party dominated states: A case study of Japan Dr. Christian Schafferer www.fule.at Overseas Chinese University

2. Content • Institutional setting • ’55 System • Electoral politics and the rise of the LDP • 1994 Reforms and institutional limits • Policy-making process • Parliamentary caucus system • Political reform in the age of experience economy • Politicians as experience stagers • Prospective voting and the Manifesto

3. Institutional setting • ’55 System • Electoral machine: 1950s – koenkai • Corruption in 1970s: kinken-senkyo syndrom • Japanese ideal model of modern party system • Two-party system with different support base and policy orientations • Alternation of political parties in power • Political parties are strong and centralised • Voters loyal to the party not to the candidate

4. Institutional setting ’55 System One-and-a-half party system No alteration of political parties in power Voters loyal to candidates Candidates were entrepreneurs and parties in general franchiser

5. 1994 Reforms and institutional limits Aims Two-party system Policy-oriented, party-controlled, inexpensive elections Alteration of elites in power

6. 1994 Reforms and institutional limits • Policy-making process in the LDP era • Policy Affairs Research Council • Parliamentary-strategy committees (kokutai) • Policy-making process in the coalition era • Hosokawa: replace kokutai politics with transparent institutionalised processes in parliament • Chairmen and secretaries-general of coalition parties (e.g. Ozawa, Japan Renewal Party)

7. 1994 Reforms and institutional limits • Importance of parliamentary caucus system (innai kaiha) • Size determines power in parliament • Unified kaiha (toitsu kaiha) • First step towards merger • Ozawa Ichiro’s strategy • Form largest kaiha: minimise power of LDP and JSP • After election of Hata: new kaiha without consulting JSP

8. 1994 Reforms and institutional limits Important aspects of the reform era Role and rise of the independent voter Reform is the catchword that attracts voters Decline in retrospective voting behaviour

9. Political reform in the age of experience economy • Economies: agrarian – industrial – service – experience • Experience economy: companies stage experiences that sell • Applied to the political domain: • Elections are staged events • They are part of popular culture • Participants want to obtain memorable experiences • They have high expectations and are eager to experience something new

10. Political reform in the age of experience economy Sophisticated media strategy 2000 election onwards Seko Hiroshige Miura Hiroshi

11. Political reform in the age of experience economy Heroic figures Koizumi Junichiro – the lionheart

12. Political reform in the age of experience economy Hatoyama Yukio – the alien spaceman

13. Political reform in the age of experience economy Party manifestos