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Post processing on NWP output and nowcasting on the grid for feeding the forecast system in Canada

Post processing on NWP output and nowcasting on the grid for feeding the forecast system in Canada. Donald Talbot Chief of Meteorological System Section, CMC SAAWSO Project Workshop St. John’s, April 23rd, 2013. Overview. Actual forecast system Scribe

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Post processing on NWP output and nowcasting on the grid for feeding the forecast system in Canada

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  1. Post processing on NWP output and nowcasting on the grid for feeding the forecast system in Canada Donald Talbot Chief of Meteorological System Section, CMC SAAWSO Project Workshop St. John’s, April 23rd, 2013

  2. Overview • Actual forecast system Scribe • Next Generation Forecast System Signature Project • New post processing and nowcasting systems • Collaboration and a need for operational systems

  3. SCRIBE SCRIBE Storm Prediction Centers Canadian Met. Centre Products Generator Concepts Generator Matrices Generator MATRICES Weather Elements “CONCEPTS” MODELS PRODUCTS METEOCODE

  4. Signature Project: Next Generation Forecasting System • Make use of new NWP systems and re-define post processing • point paradigm changing to grid forecasting • Next Gen includes the Warning Re-engineering Signature Project • NWP with a focus on High Impact Weather (HIW) • Forecasters activities in relation to nowcasting and weather watch for HIW • New level of service and development of new products • Several developers grouped in different teams will work on specific portion of the new forecast system • The pool of information will be center at every development team • Next Gen will be an evolution of the existing forecasting system, it will not be a whole new system

  5. Det. 250-> 5m Det. 1.5 km Det. 2.5 km Det. 2.5 km Det. 10 km Det. 10 km EPS 1.5 km EPS 2.5 km EPS 35 km EPS 10 km EPS 20 km EPS 10 km Future evolution of CMC atmospheric models Summer 2013 2016 2020 Det. 25 km Global EPS 66 km Det. 10 km Regional EPS 15 km Local Det. 1m Det. 3m Urban EPS 5m EPS 5m

  6. LAM2.5km-West Inland Scribe matrices (red cross)

  7. RDPS 10 km topography (GZ0, dam)

  8. LAM-W 2.5 km topography (GZ0, dam)

  9. A project involving several groups CMDW scribe software NWP UMOS Concepts database interface text nowcasting met objects NinJo CMDM text

  10. Best data – Post Processing • Review post processing with best science and new guidance, verification with EMET • Collaboration with National Labs • New guidances • on High Impact Weather (HIW) • on ensemble, calibration and sampling • Information or intrinsic value • UMOS+MIST and/or CALDAS+GEM-surf • Consistency among weather elements • Strategies for best data : e.g. for day 6-7, averaging of last two runs

  11. Nowcasting on the grid : Prototype description • Observations of precipitation types, convection and cloud cover are converted into a meso-scale analysis using the Kriging interpolation method (50 km grid) • The resulting analysis is then refined by using radar, satellite and lightning observation data and NWP • Meso-scales analysis are produced by combining these different data sources using a rules bases system (12.5 km grid) • The sequence in the production of the meso-scale analysis is important: • Cloud cover • Precipitation occurrences • Precipitation types • Stability & Convection analysis is independent • The final analysis are extrapolated by a forward scheme using the NWP wind field (50% of 500 hPa)

  12. Nowcasting on the grid • Nowcasting workshop’s date decided at next Prediction Committee in June • Meso analysis from Bourgouin • Presentation at GLOMW in April, input of meteorologists • HIW ? Weather watch, run on request not just hourly • Ontario lab and ARMP science transfer • radar and satellite • NWCSAF under EUMETSAT • Investigate what is done with INCA

  13. Example : better fog forecasting • GEM10km not handling well fog, unless using B. Burrows diagnostics based on FRAM • With LAM2.5, diagnostic fields calculated from prognostic values from M-Y scheme and based on Ismail Gultepe’s parameterizations using FRAM data • Hourly fog observation by satellite, extrapolation and then converging toward LAM2.5 solution could be a good strategy

  14. How to bring a project to operations • At the beginning, plan its implementation • Develop code using best practice in programming • Testing and verification scores • Demonstration to decisional committee such as CPOP • Delivery to the implementation section with documentation, validation • Forever support to operations in case of problems • Operational forecasters use and feedback

  15. Links with ARMP • INTW for nowcasting at points and on grid (MIST), Laura and George • Radar and Precip-ET, Norm Donaldson and Ahmed Mahidjiba (CMOI) • Satellite applications for nowcasting and weather over cold climatic regions during SAAWSO project (Satellite Applications for Arctic Weather and SAR Operations), Ismail Gultepe, April 22-24 2013, St. John’s NF • No replacement to MAPLE, optical flow technique in STEPS, Paul Joe

  16. Conclusion • New forecast system lies ahead of us • Projects will converge toward operations • Collaboration among all partners is key

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