Recent migration from the A8 countries and its impact on sending economies - case of Poland

1. Recent migration from the A8 countries and its impact on sending economies - case of Poland Paweł Kaczmarczyk Centre of Migration Research University of Warsaw EURES IS Mobility Seminar, Keflavík May, 30th 2008

2. Outline of the presentation • Past and recent trends in migration from the A8 countries – an overview • What we do know and we do not know about recent mobility of Central Europeans? – case of Poland • Impact of migration on sending countries – demographic and labour market related issues • Conclusions

3. Scale and trends in migration from CEE Migration in the pre-transition period (1): • Emigration – rather exceptional but sizeable  majority of long-term population movements directed to the West (incl. politically motivated and ethnically motivated movements) • Labour movements – limited, with a few exceptions (ex-Yugoslavia, project-tied employment) • Circular movements of ‘false tourists’

4. Scale and trends in migration from CEE Migration in the transition period: • Continuation of pre-transition trends • Emigration to the West, incl. the USA (ethnically or politically motivated, family reunion) – on decline since mid 1990s • Temporary employment in Western Europe - incomplete migration – (Bulgaria, Poland, Romania)  more or less irregular, short term or circular in nature  increase • New trends in migratory behaviour • Temporary employment in Western Europe – mainly based on bilateral agreements • Movements between successor states of the ex-USSR • Transit migration • Inflow - settlement immigration, immigration of migrant workers, movements of people in need of protection

5. Features of migration from the CEE countries in the transition period • The outflow much lower and less diversified than in the previous decades • The number of net emigration countries decreased  shift to net immigration countries (Hungary, Czech Rep.) • Temporary flows as dominant migration type • Outflow did not matter neither for sending nor for receiving countries  scale of irregular migration (?), but: in all regularisation programmes pursued in EU so far around 800,000 irregular migrants from CEE were identified • Poland as the only country sending considerable quantities of people abroad

6. EU8 citizens residing in EU15 countries, 2000 • EU8 citizens residing in UE15 countries: • As percentage of total immigrant population of destination countries (in red) • Actual numbers in thousand and per thousand of total population of their native country (in blue) Source: Okólski 2007

7. Post EU accesion movements Recent accession rounds: • May 2004: Czech Rep., Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia • January 2007: Bulgaria and Romania But: • Most of the UE countries introduced transitory arrangements with regard to access to the labour market and social security systems: • Free access to labour market: Ireland, Sweden, United Kingdom (limited access to the welfare system) • Limited access to labour market in case of other countries (relaxed in 2006 and 2007) • No access until 2011 announced: Austria and Germany (free access for service providers)

8. Post-accession flows – UK: Number of visits to the UK by the nationals of the EU8 countries, 2003-2007 (in thous.) • Polish citizens: • 2004: 528 • 2005: 1,041 • 2006: 1,326 • 2007: 1,007* * First three quarters Source: IPS

9. Applicants with the Worker Registration Scheme by major nationalities, March 2004– June 2007, by quarters Source: Home Office

10. Applicants with the Worker Registration Scheme by major nationalities, March 2004– May 2007, by quarters Source: WRS

11. Immigrants allocated a National Insurance number in the UK, 2002-2007 (in thous.), top ten countries Source: Home Office

12. Polish migrants in the UK, according to LFS (1945-2006) Polish residents in the UK: - Mid 2006: 209 thousand - End of 2006: 260 thousand - Mid 2007: 406 thousand Source: Okólski 2007

13. Inflow of EU8 labour to Ireland – Personal Public Service Numbers issued (in thousand) Source: WB 2006

14. No of residence permits issued in Sweden, selected EU8 countries, 2003-2005 Source: WB 2006

15. Post accession flows Three types of CEE countries with regard to international mobility: • Scale (and dynamics) of migration  Poland • High intensity of migration  Baltic countries • High (expected) dynamics of migration  Romania

16. Migrant workers from EU8 in Ireland, Sweden and the United Kingdom as per cent of working age population of the countries of origin, 2004-2005 Source: World Bank 2006

17. Recent migration from Poland: what we do and what we do not know? Scale and dynamics of migration • Data on registered migration (CSO Population Register):353,000 persons who deregistered themselves and moved abroad between 1990 and 2005 • Census data: • The 1995 Microcensus: about 900,000 permanent residents of Poland staying temporarily abroad (2% of the total population) • The 2002 National Census: 786,100 Polish citizens, counted as members of households in Poland, staying abroad for longer than 2 months (1.8% of the population). • CSO estimate (end of 2006):1,950 thous. personsstayingtemporarilyabroad(3.3% of thetotalpopulation); post-accession net outflow – 1,120 thous. • LFS: in 2004 on average 250 thousandpersonsstayingabroad for longerthan 2 months, 3rd quarter of 2007 – 522 thousand

18. The total number of Polish citizens staying abroad for longer than 2 months, by major destination countries, in thousand Source: CSO 2007.

19. Recent migration from Poland: what we do and what we do not know? • Features of recent migration from Poland • Predominance of labour migration • Predominance of short-term migration (?) • Dynamics of migration • Distribution of major destination countries

20. Migration according to LFS data:Polish migrants by length of their stay abroad, 1994-2007 (in thous.) Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008

21. Recentmigrationfrom Poland - dynamics Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008

22. Recentmigrationfrom Poland – dynamics and seasonalfeatures Ireland: PPS numbers Norway: workpermits Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008

23. Main destination countries for migrants from Poland before and after accession, in per cent Source: SOPEMI

24. Migration according to LFS data:Polish migrants by country of destination, 2000-2007, 2nd quarter (in thous.) Source: SOPEMI

25. Distribution of pre-accession and post-accession migrants by level of education vis-à-vis general population, in per cent Source: BAEL (CMR files)

26. Selectivity of recent mobility of Poles – educational attainment Migrant selectivity indexes (SI) for tertiary education

27. Selectivity of recent mobility of Poles – educational attainment Migrant selectivity indexes (SI) for vocational education

28. Demographic effects Percentage net loss of population aged 15 or more due to temporary outflow in the post-accession period, by sex and the level of education (as of January 1st, 2007) Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008

29. KM MM

30. Demographic effects Percentage net loss of population aged 15 or more due to temporary outflow in the post-accession period, by region and type of locality (as of January 1st, 2007) Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008

31. Radical relief to labour market – a decline in unemployment Unemployment rate (annual) in 2006 compared to 2004 • EU15 decline from 8.0% to 7.4% decline in EU8 countries (exception – Hungary): • Lithuania by 5.8 points (to 5.6%) • Poland by 5.2 points (to 13.8%) • Slovakia by 4.8 points (to 13.4%) • Estonia by 3.8 points (to 5.9%) • Latvia by 3.6 points (to 6.8%) • Czech R. by 1.2 points (to 7.1%) • Slovenia by 0.3 points (to 6.0%)

32. Migrants from Poland and unemployment rate according to LFS, 1994-2007 Source: GUS, Kepinska 2007

33. Labour shortages: effect of the outflow? Vacancyrates, 2005-2007 Source: WB 2007

34. Vacancy rates by sector, 2004-2007 (in per cent) Source: WB 2006

35. Migration effect on labour market in Poland – labour shortages (by sector) Source: WB 2006

36. But: very good economic climate – creation of jobs

37. Impact of migration on the Polish labour market, 2000-2006 Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008

38. Situation on the Polish labour market prior to the first migration (no. of cases) Source: CMR ethnosurvey 2007

39. Conclusions • Assessment of recent migratory processes in A8 countries – data limitations and its consequences? • Impacts of migration on sending countries: • Importance of the scale of recent ouflow • Importance of the selectivity of recent migration: stronger propensity to move was observed among people originating from economically backward regions, characterised by very limited employment opportunities, a high proportion of the population living in medium-sized or small towns and in villages, and a relatively large semi-subsistence sector  brain overflow • Labour migration – a chance or a threat for the Polish labour market? (structural changes possible, new model of professional career, internal mobility, entrepreneurship) • Tentative conclusion - ‘labour market pre-emption’, ‘crowding-out’ hypothesis • Return migration • Transition into net immigration area?