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Tonight’s Agenda

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Tonight’s Agenda

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  1. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.  Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.

  2. Tonight’s Agenda • Announcements • ETF’s • Earnings • Market Outlook

  3. Announcements • Dues &Shirts

  4. Competition • $10 to enter • Starts Tomorrow at market open • $9.99 commission for trades • No Margin/ No Options • 5 min delay on trades • $1 minimum on stock share price • 50% diversification rule • 1% interest on cash

  5. ETFs • ETF stands for Exchange Traded Fund • A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange *ticker symbols FAZ, TNA, SPY • ETFs experience price changes throughout the day as they are bought and sold

  6. ETFs

  7. Dow Jones U.S. Industrial Sector Index Fund (IYJ)

  8. Dow Jones U.S. Industrial Sector Index Fund (IYJ)

  9. Benefits to holding ETFs • You get the diversification of an index fund *Generally less risk than buying into a single company • Ability to sell short, buy on margin and purchase as little as one share • Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund *Commission is similar to all other regular orders

  10. More Benefits • ETFs can provide easy access into different investing markets *Bonds , Currencies, International markets, Leveraged trading

  11. Who Manages these ETFs • Sponsors- The company or financial institution which creates and administers an exchange-traded fund. • Big Sponsors: ProShares, iShares, Direxion,Vanguard

  12. Popularity • 2010: Top 9 ETFs accounted for 18% of daily trading volume • SPY alone accounted for around 10% of daily trading volume in July, 2010 • Comparison: The top 6 largest companies only accounted for 10% of daily trading volume in July, 2010

  13. ETFs Examples • Currency: Euro (ULE, EUO) Yen (YCL, YCS) • Commodities: Dow Jones (CMD), Gold (GLL), Silver (ZSL) • International: China (PGJ, FXI), Emerging Markets (ADRE, FRN) • Leverage: FAZ, FAS, TNA, TZA,

  14. Terms • Bull/ Long – follows the market trends • Bear/ Short – Follows the market inversely

  15. Terms • Ultra/ Double – Leveraged 2:1. Attempt to double the returns of a benchmark • Triple/ 3x – Leveraged 3:1

  16. Leveraged ETFs • A leveraged ETF does not amplify the annual returns of an index; instead it follows the daily changes • For example, let's examine a leveraged fund with a 2:1 ratio. This means that each dollar of investor capital used is matched with an additional dollar of invested debt. If one day the underlying index returns 1%, the fund will theoretically return 2%.

  17. The Market Last Week • S&P up 6% on the week • Better news out of Europe • Earning Results • Decent Economic Data

  18. European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)

  19. Last Week’s Earnings Calendar:How’d they do?

  20. Earnings Results

  21. 89% of analysts have buy rating on JPM

  22. JPM Earnings • “Best in Breed” for banks • This is a bad sign for forthcoming bank earning reports

  23. Next Week’s Earnings Calendar

  24. Fri 14 Oct 11 | 03:30 PM ET Does this Rally have legs?

  25. Christian Thwaites • More Bullish in short term • He is Accumulating stock • Claims we are in a Range-Bound Market • S&P 1250 on the upside of range • Doesn’t see a catalyst that will take market out of range by end of Earnings Season

  26. Recall from last meeting…. • The video clip we watched claimed the trading range for S&P was 1100-1200 • S&P (now at 1224) broke out above this range • What does this mean.

  27. David Darst • More Bearish • Taking money off the table • Two main issues concern him: • He perceives higher risk of recession than general consensus • The non-transparent political environment is not favorable to investors

  28. David Darst • Avoiding Commodities & REITs • Avoiding Consumer Discretionary Investments • Autos/Housing/Retail • Staying confident with Utilities/Consumer Staples • QCOMM • AAPL • IBM • INTC

  29. Consumer Discretionary: A sector of the economy that consists of businesses that sell nonessential goods and services. - Retailers - Consumer durables - Apparel companies - Automobiles Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF: VCR http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumer-discretionary.asp#ixzz1ayXCN7NM

  30. Consumer Discretionary:

  31. Consumer Staples: The industries that manufacture and sell things people need - Food/beverages - Tobacco - Prescription drugs - Household products. Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF: VDC http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerstaples.asp#ixzz1ayZ63PtY

  32. Consumer Staples:

  33. Fri 14 Oct 11 | 12:42 PM ET Tim Seymore: Trading China Stop at min 3:00

  34. Video Summary • GMCR at $91…. Analysts have a $112 target • Chinese CPI (Consumer Price Index) has cooled • Could lead to Chinese policy easing • Seymore is Bullish on China

  35. Video Summary • Rumors that China sees less future demand on Copper and Coking Coal • Seymore sees differently, says companies like Rio Tinto (RIO) are at record production

  36. we made 52 week lows last tuesday, up 13.5%

  37. Freeport-McMoRan • Copper and Gold miner • Market Cap: $32 Billion • Hit 52 week low last Tuesday

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