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Texas Demographic Trends and Characteristics: Implications for Economic Growth

This report explores the demographic trends and characteristics in Texas, highlighting the uneven growth across regions and racial/ethnic groups. It emphasizes the role of the Hispanic population in driving population growth and discusses the implications for infrastructure and economic growth in the state. The report also examines the aging population and its impact on Texas.

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Texas Demographic Trends and Characteristics: Implications for Economic Growth

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  1. Texas Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections NRG Retail – Reliant Residential Houston, TX November 9, 2017 @TexasDemography

  2. Demographic Overview Texas is experiencing significant growth. Population continues to grow at a steady pace though growth is not geographically evenly distributed. Growth is not racially/ethnically evenly distributed. Population growth is being driven largely by the Hispanic population. The population of Texas, while relatively young, is also aging. The components of population change have varying implications for infrastructure in Texas. Demographic shifts may have serious implications for maintaining inclusive and equitable economic growth in the state.

  3. Texas is experiencing fast and high growth.

  4. Population Growth in Select States, 2000-2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2016 Population Estimates.

  5. Total Population in Texas, 1950-2016 (in millions) Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts and Population Estimates. All values for decennial datesare for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2011-2016 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

  6. Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

  7. Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2016 96 counties lost population over the 6 year period. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

  8. Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

  9. Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

  10. Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2015-2016 8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates.

  11. Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2015-2016 9 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates.

  12. Estimated Percent of Total Net-Migrant Flows to and From Texas and Other States, 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016. ACS Migration Flows, 2015

  13. Texas continues to racially/ethnically diversify.

  14. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, • 2000, 2010, and 2016 11 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000, 2010 Decennial Census and 2016 Population Estimates

  15. Racial and Ethnic Composition of Texas and Top 10 Most Populous Counties, 2015 12 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

  16. Population Pyramids for Hispanics and Non-Hispanic Whites in Texas, 2010

  17. Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS

  18. Unauthorized and Mexican Immigration, 2015

  19. Texas is young, but aging.

  20. States with the Oldest Median Ages, 2000, 2010, 2014

  21. Texas Population by Age Group, 2000 to 2014

  22. Population Projections by Age Group, 2010 to 2050

  23. Percent of Population 65 Years Plus, Texas Counties, 2011-2015 30 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

  24. Economic Outlook

  25. Number of Jobs Added Since January 2009 through December 2016 by State and Percent of U.S. Total Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  26. Job Growth, U.S. and Texas, 1990 to Aug 2017

  27. Housing Affordability in Select Texas Metros, 2007-2016

  28. Economic Indicators, Texas and U.S., 2016 • Unemployment rate • Texas = 5.6% • U.S. = 5.8% • Median Household Income • Texas = $56,565 • U.S. = $57,617 • Median Family Income • Texas = $67,025 • U.S. = 71,062 • Median earnings for males working full time • Texas = $47,351 • U.S. = $50,586 • Median earnings for females working full time • Texas = $37,576 • U.S. = $40,626 • Poverty rate • Texas = 15.6% 12.7% • U.S. = 14.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

  29. Percent of the population aged 25 and older with a bachelor’s degree or higher, 2011-2015 Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011-2015 5-Year Sample

  30. Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity, Texas and Big Four Metro Areas, 2016

  31. Median Household Income, Texas counties, 2011-2015 Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011-2015 5-Year Sample

  32. Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, Texas and Big Four Metro Areas, 2016

  33. Percent of the population with income below poverty, Texas counties, 2011-2015 Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011-2015 5-Year Sample

  34. Unemployment and Poverty Rates by Race/Ethnicity, Texas and Big Four Metro Areas, 2016

  35. Population Projections

  36. Educational Attainment, Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, Texas, 2011 and 2015 U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples, 2011 and 2015 * Years significantly different p<.05

  37. Percent Distribution of Educational Attainment of Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, Texas, 2008, 2011, and 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples, 2008-2015

  38. Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

  39. Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, Texas These should be going DOWN These should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

  40. Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas These should be going DOWN These should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

  41. Earnings and Education Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year, 2015, B20004.

  42. Hard to count states

  43. Hard to count census tracts, 2010 http://www.censushardtocountmaps2020.us/

  44. Office: (512) 936-3542 Lila.Valencia@utsa.edu www.texasdemographics.gov Lila Valencia, Ph.D. @TexasDemography

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