1 / 15

13-14 June 2007 Old Parliament House Canberra

Climate change and transport What are the main options? Trends and projections of transport energy use and emissions. 13-14 June 2007 Old Parliament House Canberra. David Cosgrove. 7 th BTRE Transport Colloquium Policy Challenges for Future Growth.

shayla
Download Presentation

13-14 June 2007 Old Parliament House Canberra

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Climate change and transportWhat are the main options?Trends and projections of transport energy use and emissions 13-14 June 2007Old Parliament HouseCanberra David Cosgrove 7thBTRE Transport ColloquiumPolicy Challenges for Future Growth

  2. Transport Emission Trends – Underlying effects • Population and demographics • Income levels (and other economic impacts) • Technical innovation • Public preferences (and travel choice behaviour) • Costs of travel (fuel prices, fares, vehicle prices, congestion…)

  3. Total Australian Passenger task Base case projections Source: BTRE (2005), BTRE estimates – for domestic transport. Other = mostly Light Commercial Vehicles (non-business use), plus motorcycles and ferries.

  4. Total domestic freight task Base case projections Source: BTRE (2005, 2006), BTRE estimates

  5. Australian Urban Travel Source: BTRE (2005, 2007), BTRE estimates.Other = mostly Light Commercial Vehicles (non-business use), plus motorcycles and ferries.

  6. Worsening congestion trends… Source: BTRE WP71 (2007)

  7. Energy use by Australian domestic transport Base case projections Source: BTRE (2005, 2002a) – note: includes coal used for electric rail generation

  8. Liquid fuel use – Domestic and International transport Base case projections Source: BTRE (2005, 2002a) – note: does not include military fuel use

  9. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Mode Note: Domestic transport; includes emissions from power generation for electric rail

  10. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Road Vehicles Base case projections

  11. Sensitivity of projections to oil prices… Note: End-use emission projections – for crude oil prices between about 35 to 90 dollars US per barrel

  12. Reproduced from Fueling Our Transportation Future by John B. Heywood, Scientific American, September 2006

  13. Reproduced fromGreen sky thinking: eight ways to a cleaner flying future By Bennett Daviss, New Scientist, 22 February 2007

  14. Climate change and transport - What are the main options? David Cosgrove Trends and projections of transport energy use and emissions

  15. References and further reading: • BTRE (2002a), Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Transport: Australian Trends To 2020, Report 107 • BTRE (2002b), Fuel consumption by new passenger vehicles in Australia, Information Sheet 18 • BTRE (2005), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Base Case Projections To 2020, Report to AGO, http://www.btre.gov.au/docs/commissioned/BTRE_AGO_05.pdf • BTRE (2007), Estimating urban traffic and congestion cost trends for Australian cities, Working Paper 71, http://www.btre.gov.au/docs/workingpapers/wp71/wp71.pdf • BTRE (2006), Freight Measurement and Modelling in Australia, Report 112 • BTE (2000), Urban Congestion - The Implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Information Sheet 16 • BTCE (1996), Transport and Greenhouse: Costs and options for reducing emissions, Report 94 • Cosgrove, D. & Mitchell, D. (2001), ‘Standardised Time-series for the Australian Road Transport Task’, Proceedings of the 24th Australasian Transport Research Forum, Hobart 17 April 2001, Tasmanian Department of Infrastructure, Energy and Resources • Cosgrove, D. C. (2003), Urban Pollutant Emissions From Motor Vehicles: Australian Trends To 2020, Final Draft Report for Environment Australia, June 2003; study conducted for the Department of Environment and Heritage, BTRE 2003; www.btre.gov.au/docs/joint_reports/urbanpollutants_draft.aspx

More Related