The MJO + and subseasonal predictions: A role for monitoring and global synoptics

1. L H L The MJO+ and subseasonal predictions:A role for monitoring and global synoptics Klaus Weickmann, Climate Diagnostics Center Edward Berry, National Weather Service • Prediction and Monitoring Tools • How are models doing with the MJO? • How can we use MJO composites? • Forecast Evaluation and Attribution Tools • Dynamical Framework: AAM* Processes • Synoptic-Dynamic Model • Synoptic Case Studies • Proposed Future Activities mountains eddies convection base state +and tropical convection in general *atmospheric angular momentum

2. Synoptic-Dynamic Model for Northern WinterThree subseasonal time scales Extreme weather events Prediction of tropical convection Responding to initial conditions of convection MJO: 30-70d (quasi-oscillatory) Teleconnections: 7-10 day decay (red noise) Baroclinic wave energy: 1-2 day decay (white noise) Predictive Focus i.c. Week 1 week 2 >2? i.c. Day 4 Day 8 Day 11

3. Summary of MJO Compositing • 1. Global Atmospheric AM • - strong, robust signal • 2. Zonal Atmospheric AM • poleward movement • best in winter hemisphere • 3. Regional Circulation • subtropical cyclones/anticyclones • meridional propagating wavetrains • ______________________________________________________________ • 4. Weather-Climate Connection • tropical-midlatitude interactions • mainly case studies • regional precip/temp and MJO • N. America: Vecchi and Bond • systematic effort worthwhile?

4. West Pacific/North American Wavetrain: Tropical-extratropical interaction 250 hPa Strmfcn Diabatic Heating H H L H H L L H Day 0 Day 14

5. L H L H L H H L L H Seasonal (Peixoto + Oort) Dynamics of subseasonalAAM variability role of mountains + -- + T O R Q U E - - + + 60s 30 EQ 30 60n

6. Baroclinic Wave Packets, etc…

7. The influence of ENSO on baroclinic life cycles (Shapiro, et al. 2001) Life Cycle 1 (LC1) Life Cycle 2 (LC2) > > > > > > La Nina < < < < < < El Nino Feb. 6 1999 Feb. 5 1998 < < < < < < > > > > > > Number of days in the period 16 January - 28 February 1999 1998 LC1 25 2 LC2 2 27

8. Global Frictional Torque ~8 dy 1-2 dy 30- 70 dy +30 -30 Global Mountain Torque +90 -90 20-100 day filtered OLR EOF1 Nov-Mar 1979-95 Day 0 regressed on global frictional torque 200 hPa vector wind and SLP H L L H H H H L L Day 0 regressed on global mountain torque H H L L H L L H L L H H Day 0 regressed on 20-100 day OLR EOF1 L H L L L L H

9. Synoptic Model of Subseasonal Variability: Stage 1 L L L H H H Stage 1 H H H

10. Synoptic Model of Subseasonal Variability: Stage 2 Stage 2 H H H

11. Synoptic Model of Subseasonal Variability: Stage 3 L H L 45N L Stage 3 H H L L L H H

12. L H H L Synoptic Model of Subseasonal Variability: Stage 4 Stage 4 L H L

13. Case StudiesMJO signal and synoptic issues • Tropical convective flareups • Indian, Indonesia, west Pacific, central Pacific Oceans: base state differences important • South Asia jet disturbances • Storm track over Pacific • Cold surges and mountain torques • Movement of MJO zonal wind “slug” • Baroclinic wave packets, Rossby wave dispersion, energy dispersion

14. Synoptics and August 2004 USA wet/cool west Pacific forcing 17-26 June 1-6 August from Weather Climate Discussion #4: 16 August 2004

15. 2 August 2004 5 August 2004 L L H L L H L H L L L H 3 August 2004 6 August 2004 L L H H L L L H L L H 4 August 2004 7 August 2004 L L H H L H L L L H L L H

16. H L H L L L L H H H

17. End-to-end approach to subseasonal predictions SDM >Staging Strategy >Current stage >Future stage >weeks 1-4 Research >Dynamics !!! >Wx/Climate >GCMs Diagnosis >MJO >SSTA >AAM >ENSO Users >Discussions for all needs >Social and econ issues Predictions >Probabilistic >Hazards >Weeks 1-4 >MJO EPP Model Eval >Temp/precip probabilties >Hindcasts! >Ensembles >LIM

18. Current Applications and Future Plans • NOAA/CPC U.S. and Global Hazards Assessment • Evaluate making subjective changes to calibrated temp and precip probability forecasts for the USA • MJO Prediction Program, Including Weather-Climate Discussions • Develop Additional Tools to Aid Diagnosis and Attribution (e.g., EP-fluxes, etc.) • Research on Transient Mountain Torques • Research Model Performance of Zonal Mean Zonal Wind Anomalies • Goal is to Improve Prediction of Extreme Events and Circulation Transitions

19. MJO Webpages:CPCBMRCICESSCDC:8 fcsts,6 realtimeverificationvariablesMJO phasediscussions

20. Global Relative AAM Case Study 2001-02 Northern Winter Briefly examine transition during December 2001 and January 2002 Role of north Indian Ocean/Asian wavetrain and baroclinic life cycles PNA pattern EOF1 200/850 vector wind Nov Dec Jan Feb `02

21. June 2004: 150mb winds and OLR H L H L H H L L H

22. 18 Dec 01 Other Cases: “The second storm” 23 Jan 02 13 Nov 02 5 May 03 13 Oct 03 i f o Day 6 Fcst Day 6 Fcst Day 7 Fcst Day 6 Fcst Day 4 Fcst 24 Dec 01 29 Jan 02 20 Nov 02 11 May 03 17 Oct 03

23. 28 April 2003 25 Apr - 1 May 2003 L H L H L 26 Apr - 2 May 2003 29 April 2003 L H L H L L H L 27 Apr - 3 May 2003 30 April 2003 H L H L L H H L

24. 4-10 May 2003 7 May 2003 L H L L H H 5-11 May 2003 8 May 2003 L H L L L H H 9 May 2003 L L H L L H H

25. Synoptics and Dec-Jan 2002 pattern transitionswest-central Pacific and Indian Ocean forcing Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Midwest ice storm January 29-31, 2002

26. SDM Stage 4=>1 01/12/02 01/16/02 H H H H L L H L H L H H L 01/13/02 01/17/02 H H L L H L H H H L 01/14/02 01/18/02 H H L L H H L H H 01/15/02 01/19/02 H L H H L H H L L

27. Synoptics and May 2003 tornado outbreak Indian Ocean forcing

28. 4 May 2003 1-7 May 2003 L H L L H H L 2-8 May 2003 5 May 2003 L L H L L H H L 6 May 2003 3-9 May 2003 L L H L L H H