Outline

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2. Outline Overview: the AIACC AS25 project Updated Achievements IA Research Methodology Data Collection by RS & GIS Sensitivity Identification, Vulnerability & Adaptive Capacity Assessment Barriers Experienced Link to National Communication Capacity Building and Multi-Stakeholder Involvement Acknowledgement

5. Updated Achievements Established a Steering Committee and a Expert Committee for the project. Enhanced research capacity by involving CMA. Developed a conceptual IA approach for identification of the societal vulnerabilities to climate stimuli and desirable adaptation options to deal with system vulnerabilities. Conducted research in some components of the project: AIACC training, data collection, climate scenario develop by RCM, and so on.

6. Updated Achievements Undertaken a training workshop in Lanzhou (shared with a CIDA project) and a team meeting in Nanjing Identified regional concerns in resource management and climate stresses Improved understanding of the interactions between regional sustainability and climate change. Trained young scientists and graduate students to design and apply IA methods in a real world context.

7. Research Methodology The IA approach will combine computer modelling and non-model based methods including a series of training workshops, survey, expert judgement, community engagement, multi-stakeholder consultation, ecological simulation modelling, geographical information system (GIS), remote sensing, fuzzy set classification, goal programming, and multi-criteria decision making (MCDM).

8. Research Methodology Climate scenarios and extremes Prof. Ding Yihui: RCM of China CIDA C5 project CC Scenario Workshop Socio-economic scenarios Dr. Shuming Bao: Database of China National West China Development Strategy Data collection: RS, GIS, field work, literature review, and survey Dr. Zhongmin Xu: Vulnerability Methods

12. Potential sensitivity matrix showing the climate variables with  the greatest forcing and activities with the broadest sensitivity in Western China (Modified from: Hennessy and Jones, 1999)

14. Sectors Indicators Water resources VI water demand, water storage stress, water stress, hydropower, EI water supply climate variables, Palmer drought severity index, low flow event frequency and duration, ACI economic return, industry productivity, regulated annual supply, institutional frameworks Agriculture VI population growth, water resource consumption, arable land loss, food consumption EI cold snap, heat stress days, monsoon pattern, accumulated degree days, water supply, Palmer drought severity index ACI farm income, agricultural product price, agricultural production, Ecosystems VI soil erosion, desertification, sand storm, population growth rate, population density EI water supply, high winds Number of days, sand storms, Palmer drought severity index, heat stress days, cold snap days, ACI forest area protection, emission reduction of CO2, ecological protection -------------------------- Note: VI=vulnerability indicator; EI= Exposure indicators; ACI=adaptive capacity indicator Vulnerability and adaptive capacity indicators

15. Prioritizing Adaptation Options or Policies Adopt a multi-criteria decision making technique, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), to identify desirable adaptation options to reduce climate vulnerabilities and to improve adaptive capacity.

16. Barriers Encountered To obtain China GEF Office endorsement; To communicate and cooperate among researchers in various institutes and regions; and To collect a large amount of data and to develop new methods for vulnerability and adaptation assessment.

17. Link to China National Communications Involving and consulting with Chinese government officials and experts who are responsible for preparing the NC; Holding training courses and policy workshops (regional and local decision makers) to improve China’s capacity about various IA methods, vulnerability and adaptation tools, ecosystem sustainability, and database establishment; and Sharing information and results of the AS25 project with agencies and people responsible for NC.

18. Capacity Building Young scientists were trained at a workshop (shared with the CIDA Carbon Sequestration project) to apply computer based models to assess climate change impacts and to evaluate adaptation options. The workshop also involved multi-stakeholder and experts to present their concerns and suggestions on climate and resource related issues. Many farmers were interviewed individually and asked to complete a survey in a one-on-one interview or in a small group workshop-type setting in Heihe region during summer of 2002.

19. Acknowledgements The research project and participation of this workshop have been made possible through the financial support of the AIACC, Adaptation and Impacts Research Group/Environment Canada, and Sustainable Development Research Institute/University of British Columbia.